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China and the global economy Why ignoring China is no longer an option..... Robin Bew, Chief Economist June 2004. The global outlook. Key points for 2004-05. World growth fantastic best for 20 years in 2004 developed and emerging markets surging ahead Exceptional times cannot last
China and the global economy Why ignoring China is no longer an option..... Robin Bew, Chief Economist June 2004
Key points for 2004-05 • World growth fantastic • best for 20 years in 2004 • developed and emerging markets surging ahead • Exceptional times cannot last • tipping point may have already passed • international liquidity is tightening • coping with the transition • global policy tightening • will slow world growth • Slowdown likely, but risks of worse
United States outlook • Recent performance stunning • more to come in the year ahead • But policy stimulus being withdrawn • strong momentum, but balance sheets? • Restraining factors • debts are high, spare capacity, assets prices vulnerable, external deficit • 2004 are great, but business conditions tougher in 2005-06?
Japan • Domestic economy is restructuring • under cover of export led growth • But needs more time • SME weakness, overcapacity, no pricing power • cannot yet offset export slowdown • Export deceleration will stall reform • still a long way to go before domestic recovery in place
Euro zone outlook • Only a sluggish recovery • exports • but the euro • restocking, capex • business subdued • consumers • jobs, pensions • Policy boost? • debt levels • pension fears • Reform efforts? GDP growth, % Y-on-Y
The emerging world • Benefiting from OECD pickup • import demand surging • Selling into other emerging markets • regional trade dynamics • But risk appetite has fallen sharply • past 18mths were extraordinary • but investors now leaving • spreads rising
Key points for 2004-05 • World growth fantastic • China is 6th largest economy at market prices, 2nd at PPP, growing at 9% • Exceptional times cannot last • Chinese policy tightening impacts domestically and also elsewhere • Commodities, trade • Slowdown likely, but risks of worse • Soft landings are hard to engineer • some investors will be hurt
The business response—FDI • EIU survey of 500 business executives’ foreign direct investment strategies • China the key focus • New consumer markets, low-cost labour, new business markets • India the challenger • Skilled labour, R&D, outsourcing • US & eurozone dominate ‘operating criteria’ • Supply chain efficiencies, acquisitions
The business experience • Gap between expectations and reality • China is not an easy business environment • Regulation, competition, local protection, legal framework, infrastructure, skill levels • Macroeconomic stability not assured • Irrational exuberance • Foreign and domestic • But long term potential is enormous
China FDI forecasts • China will attract US$67bn per year of FDI in 2004-08 • Second only to the US • FDI will fund 7% of total Chinese investment • China’s share of world exports to rise to 10% • Improvements in operating environment should allow enhanced profitability