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Maximizing Ideology Estimation Accuracy in Electoral Studies

Explore how asking discerning questions can improve the estimation of a citizen's ideology to assess representation, voting behavior, and polarization. Using a multidimensional model, we evaluate the effects of question selection on accuracy. Method employs a quadratic utility item response model. Data from CCES module with 1300 participants. Results show increased accuracy with fewer selected "good" items.

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Maximizing Ideology Estimation Accuracy in Electoral Studies

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  1. Scaling Political Preferences Using the Cooperative Congressional Election Study Chris Tausanovitch & Chris Warshaw May 21, 2011 CCES Conference

  2. Objective and Method • Purpose: Establish how to best estimate a multidimensional model of citizen ideology in order to evaluate representation, issue-based voting behavior, polarization, etc… • Hypothesis: Asking more and better-discriminating questions will lead to better estimates. More accurate effects can be estimated by careful question selection. • Data: One issue-question intensive CCES module, N=1300. • Method: Ideal points estimated using a quadratic utility item response model: • i indexes people, j indexes items, d indexes dimensions (1 for now) CCES Conference: May 21, 2011

  3. Densities of Ideology From Measures Using Different Sets of Survey Questions Economic Social CCES Conference: May 21, 2011

  4. Effect Size and Model Fit From Logits of Presidential Vote On Ideology (1 is a Republican Vote)

  5. Results From a Subset of “Good” Items • Correlation with full set of items: .94 for economic, .92 for social. • 30 items instead of 142 CCES Conference: May 21, 2011

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