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An Evaluation of Population Forecast Errors for Florida and Its Counties, 1980 – 2010. Stanley K Smith Stefan Rayer Bureau of Economic and Business Research University of Florida Conference on Applied Demography San Antonio, TX January 8–10, 2012.

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an evaluation of population forecast errors for florida and its counties 1980 2010

An Evaluation of Population Forecast Errors for Florida and Its Counties, 1980–2010

Stanley K Smith

Stefan Rayer

Bureau of Economic and Business Research

University of Florida

Conference on Applied Demography

San Antonio, TX

January 8–10, 2012

slide2

Table 1. Forecast Errors for State Projections, Launch Years 1980–2005

Ave. 1: Average ignoring the direction of error (precision)

Ave. 2: Average accounting for the direction of error (bias)

slide7

Table 6. Forecast Errors for County Projections,

by Population Size and Length of Horizon

slide8

Table 7. Forecast Errors for County Projections,

by Growth Rate and Length of Horizon

slide9

Table 8. Number of Counties with Populations Falling Below the Low

Projection, Above the High Projection, or Within the Projected Range