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Providing real estate valuation, consulting, and due diligence services to: Individuals Lenders Corporations And their tax and legal advisors. Objective. Highlight trends in this market place Identify areas of risk and opportunity Bring strategic awareness to Market participants

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Presentation Transcript
Slide1 l.jpg


Objective l.jpg
Objective diligence services to:

  • Highlight trends in this market place

  • Identify areas of risk and opportunity

  • Bring strategic awareness to

    • Market participants

    • Municipal leaders


Market drivers l.jpg
Market Drivers diligence services to:

  • Office markets are driven by jobs

  • “Jobs” are changing

    • Cost reduction / Technology

    • Education

    • Legal/Tax structure

    • Society


Definitions l.jpg
Definitions diligence services to:

  • Large Floor Plate User – Corp. tenants over 15,000 SF in market

    • Public

    • Space needs decision not made here

  • Small Floor Plate User < 5,000 SF

    • Private Companies

    • Professional

    • Owner Lives Here


Survey parameters l.jpg
Survey Parameters diligence services to:

  • Class A & B Office with GBA > 5,000 SF

  • Locations – various logical office markets

    • Greenwich

    • Stamford

    • Norwalk

    • Westport/Fairfield

    • Trumbull/Shelton

    • Danbury LMA


What we will look at l.jpg
What we will look at diligence services to:

  • Brief history – How we got here

  • Where the jobs are locating currently

  • Impact of job growth on this office market

  • Emerging Trends

  • Opportunity Index – graphical representation of risk


Fairfield county historically l.jpg
Fairfield County- Historically diligence services to:

Square Footage Additions


Historical space additions l.jpg
Historical Space Additions diligence services to:

  • Large floor plate buildings added in SF

    • 1980’s - 25,000,000

    • 1990’s - 9,000,000

    • 2000’s - 5,000,000

    • Total - 39,000,000


Fairfield county historically10 l.jpg
Fairfield County- Historically diligence services to:

Persistently High Vacancy Rates Since 2001


Big picture l.jpg
Big Picture diligence services to:

Dynamic Job Market

  • Information based jobs are now going to the lowest cost provider

  • Higher end jobs are filling in the space – just not filling in enough space

  • Will there be enough jobs to fill the space?


Trailing 12 months l.jpg
Trailing 12 Months diligence services to:

  • Strong leasing of 2.5 million SF

  • Offset by downsizing, relocations, new space

    • Purdue Pharma’s OxyContin issue results in 300,000 SF giveback

    • International Paper’s relocation down south dumps 120,000 SF

    • 901 Merritt coming on line with 375,000 SF

  • 18% increase in smaller deals (10k-20k SF)

  • Musical Chairs

  • Investment sales are hot


Slide13 l.jpg
Jobs diligence services to:

  • Who is going to occupy the current and projected future vacant space?

    • Leaner, more educated workforce

  • Where will those jobs be located?

    • In smaller floor plate buildings


Lease transactions by locale l.jpg
Lease Transactions by Locale diligence services to:


Lease transactions by sf group l.jpg
Lease Transactions by SF Group diligence services to:


Average sf leased by locale l.jpg
Average SF Leased by Locale diligence services to:


Median sf leased by locale l.jpg
Median SF Leased by Locale diligence services to:


By building age 50 000 sf and greater l.jpg
By Building Age diligence services to:50,000 SF and Greater

145 Buildings

78 Buildings


Fairfield county overall vacancy rates l.jpg
Fairfield County Overall Vacancy Rates diligence services to:

293 Buildings

919 Buildings


Fairfield county pipeline l.jpg
Fairfield County Pipeline diligence services to:

  • Approximately 5.2 million square feet of office space have a reasonable expectation of coming online over the next 10 years.


Fairfield county pipeline21 l.jpg
Fairfield County Pipeline diligence services to:

5.2 Million SF Total


Periodic county employment growth 43 000 new jobs added l.jpg
Periodic County Employment Growth diligence services to:43,000 New Jobs Added

15,000 Jobs

7,000 Jobs

7,000 Jobs


Forecasted county vacancy rates l.jpg
Forecasted County Vacancy Rates diligence services to:

Market Equilibrium 2012

Now add the proposed space additions in:

Norwalk & Fairfield


Forecasted county vacancy rates24 l.jpg
Forecasted County Vacancy Rates diligence services to:

Market Equilibrium - 2015

Now add the proposed space additions in:

Norwalk, Fairfield & Stamford


Forecasted county vacancy rates25 l.jpg
Forecasted County Vacancy Rates diligence services to:

Market Equilibrium Not Achieved

Now add the proposed space additions in:

All Fairfield County


Alternative workplace strategies l.jpg
Alternative Workplace Strategies diligence services to:

  • Historical Average of 195 per person

  • What happens at 150 SF and 125 SF

  • Why – reduced costs and lower space needs per employee


Effects of aws l.jpg
Effects of AWS diligence services to:

Assuming all pipeline additions


Opportunity index l.jpg
Opportunity Index diligence services to:

  • Numbers represent partial anticipated new space online in the next 10 years

  • Green – Vacancy lower than 12% with a down trend

  • Yellow – Vacancy 12% - 15% with up trend

  • Red – Vacancy greater than 15% with up trend


For a copy of the opportunity index or more information l.jpg

For a copy of the Opportunity Index, or more information diligence services to:

www.AustinMcGuire.com

See client section


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