Leonie A. MarksUniversity of Missouri Research Methods Risk Analysis Primer Seminario de Investigación SANREM CRSP: Adaptación al Cambio en los Andes. La Paz, 24-28 Abril, 2006
Research Methods • The survey will be designed through word associations (on likert positive / negative scales). • Perceived risks to the communities of 25 or more hazards (identified through focus groups and national media coverage) including climate change. • Perceived risks to the respondent and family on these 25+ risks. • Perception of climate change risk will be evaluated in the context of other social/political/economic risks within communities and by household. • Additional baseline questions to elicit the degree of trust in experts/government/scientists/NGOs/media versus community based trust; knowledge; attitude towards risks; equity and fairness; worldviews (cultural context of risk); personal household data (e.g., gender, age, children, assets).
Risk Ranking • Respondents will rank the degree of risk associated with the hazards presented to them including new/familiar technologies, food safety risks, natural hazards (storms, floods, frosts, droughts). • Risks can be ranked on basis of (1) perceived risk to public (national), community, and household (family), (2) the acceptability of the current level of risk, (3) its position on 15 scales (risk characteristics) that make up the two factors (dread / unknown risk). • Respondents could be asked to rank hazards in terms of “almost no risk of death,” “slight risk of death,” “moderate risk of death,” and “high risk of death.” The exact scale should be culturally determined.
Risk Ranking Questions Control over risk “Risks can be controlled either by preventing mishaps or by reducing the severity of mishaps after they occur. To what extent can you [community/risk managers], by personal skill or diligence, prevent mishaps or illnesses from occurring in the case of drought?” Much preventative control 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Little preventative control
Risk Ranking Exposure How many people are exposed to [effects of hazard, e.g. drought / frost / flood / pesticides/ food spoilage / price variability] in your [community / nationally]? Few 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Many