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Connecting the Dots Before the World Does

Connecting the Dots Before the World Does. Max Boisot ESADE & The I-Space Institute. The Inferential Challenge. In a complex world, connecting dots before the world does is taken to be the key to both human survival and prosperity But connecting dots is problematic:

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Connecting the Dots Before the World Does

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  1. Connecting the Dots Before the World Does Max Boisot ESADE & The I-Space Institute

  2. The Inferential Challenge • In a complex world, connecting dots before the world does is taken to be the key to both human survival and prosperity • But connecting dots is problematic: • How many dots can one realistically connect? • How tightly to they need to be connected before one has to act?

  3. Dots Joining Dots

  4. Event 1 Event 2 Event 2 Event 2 Conclusion Storytelling as Joining Dots Dots as Events

  5. What is an event? • Events are related to expectations – what is an event to me may not be to you • Events are scalable – what looks like an event at one scale may look like a process at another • Events are nested – large-scale events are made up of small scale events

  6. Event 1 Event 2 Event 2 Event 2 Conclusion Deduction Induction

  7. Conclusion 1 Conclusion Conclusion 2 Ignoring Inconvenient Events Inconclusive Pattern

  8. Abduction: Using What You Have To Choose between competing narratives Narrative A Narrative B

  9. The Challenge of Abduction

  10. Three Kinds of Inference • Deduction delivers certainty – based on logic • Induction delivers probability – based on repeatable events • Abduction delivers plausibility – based on coherence with prior experience

  11. Complements, Not Alternatives Zone of Abduction Zone of Induction Zone of Deduction

  12. Nature Connects the Dots: A Stylized Pareto Distribution Paretian World LogofEventFrequency GaussianWorld Power law Negative Slope Mean Log of Event Size

  13. Abduction in a Pareto World Zone of Induction & Deduction Paretian World LogofEventFrequency GaussianWorld Zone of Abduction Mean Log of Event Size

  14. Key Take-Aways: • The challenge is one of matching the inferential strategy one adopts to the level of uncertainty one confronts • Uncertainty is the surface manifestation of complexity at work • Abduction is the most tentative of the three inferential strategies • It allows anticipation but not prediction • In an increasingly complex world, however, we often have to settle for anticipation

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