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Reliability and Risk Analysis Branch, Code 322. Name: Tony DiVenti Title: Branch Chief Office: Reliability and Risk Analysis Tel: (301) 286-6507 Email: What is Reliability and Risk Analyses?. Ariane V. Challenger. Mishaps, Catastrophic Events.

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reliability and risk analysis branch code 322

Reliability and Risk Analysis Branch,Code 322

Name: Tony DiVenti

Title: Branch Chief

Office: Reliability and Risk Analysis

Tel: (301) 286-6507


what is reliability and risk analyses
What is Reliability and Risk Analyses?

Ariane V


Mishaps, Catastrophic Events

Successful, Safe, Reliable, Qualified

Mission Success – Meeting all mission specifications, requirements, objectives.

Quality – “Fitness for use” or “Conforming to specification or requirements”

Safety – Ensuring potential conditions/faults will not propagate into hazardous or catastrophic events

Reliability – “Quality or mission success over time”

Risk – “The possibility of a problem being realized” or “Likelihood, Scenario, Impact”

“The primary focus of Reliability and Risk Analysis is to design out or mitigate potential problems/barriers to mission success (and safety) before they can occur“


2010 Annual Operating Agreement

  • The Reliability and Risk Analysis Branch (RRAB) assists GSFC missions in implementing an effective risk assessment and reliability program for spacecraft, instrument, ground, and launch vehicle systems. Specific activities include:
  • Tailoring project requirements to the mission risk profile per,NPR 8705.4 Risk Classification for NAS A Payloads for NASA Missions (Note: Other important NPDs/NPRs include NPD 8720.1, NPR 8705.5, and NPR 8715.3)
  • Ensuring NPR 8000.4 Risk Management requirements are clearly flowed down and defined in GSFC procedures and/or process
  • Providing support to NASA GSFC projects and institutional organizations in the development and maintenance of Risk Management (RM) processes. Support activities may include training, risk management meeting facilitation, integrated risk management consultation, independent assessments, etc.
  • Performing System Risk Assessments and Reliability/Maintainability analyses such as: Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Failure Mode and Effects Analyses (FMEA) & Critical Item List (CIL) development, modeling & trade studies, Worst Case Analysis (WCA), Parts Stress & Derating Analysis, and other analyses that support the mission’s engineering and decision making functions.
  • Providing specific systems expertise to ensure that reliability, availability, and maintainability factors (as required) are designed and integrated into GSFC systems. Participate in reviews as required.
  • Review and assess operating and manufacturing processes/procedures. Provide support during the development & test of mission hardware & software (e.g. data/trending analysis, root cause and corrective action analysis).
  • Maintain and analyze on-orbit anomaly data & heritage information to support on-orbit performance assessments for current and future missions.
  • The Branch provides technical experts, engineers, and Chief SMA Officers (CSOs) to support projects, independent reviews, and assessments.
reliability and risk analyses activities over the program project life cycle
Reliability and Risk Analyses Activities over the Program/Project Life Cycle
  • Pre Phase A/ Phase A
  • Proposal Support
  • Develop resource/ funding plans
  • Contract, SOW, MAR, RPP, RMP Development
  • Preliminary Technology and Requirement Analysis
  • Data Collection
  • Preliminary Concept feasibility and Life Cycle Trade Studies
  • Risk Assessments
  • Risk Management Support
  • Phase B/ Phase C/ Phase D
  • Finalize conversion of reliability performance requirements from mission needs
  • Engineering Analysis
  • Surveillance
  • Verification of improvements previously identified through FMEA, FTA, etc.
  • Review and assess applicable test data
  • Risk Assessments
  • Risk Management Support
  • Phase E
  • Lessons Learned/Data Collection from On-Orbit Experience
  • Mission Extension/De-Orbit Reliability analysis and Risk Assessments
  • Risk Management Support
analysis examples
Analysis Examples

An example of a trade study


Analysis Examples

Sample FMEA worksheet

analysis examples1
Analysis Examples

Section of an FTA from the STEREO Project

AND Gate and also Top Gate

OR Gate

Transfer Gate

Basic Event

Repeated Basic Event

analysis examples2
Analysis Examples

Example from the GLAST/ACD Limited Life Item Analysis

analysis example
Analysis Example

An a excerpted example of an Event Tree from GLAST Launch Vehicle separation risk assessment


Risk Management

  • GSFC’s Integrated Risk Manager position resides in Code 322/300 to:
    • Serves as a process owner for Risk Management (10,000 ft level)
    • Works with Code 100 and the other directorates to flow down and implement Agency risk management policies/requirements on center as applicable
    • Provides expert consultation, training, and support to GSFC organizations as needed
  • Significant changes in the latest NPR 8000.4 Risk Management (RM)document:
  • - Introduces the concept of risk-informed decision making (RIDM)
  • - Increasing reliance on performance measures & quantitative techniques
  • - Integrating RIDM & CRM at all levels of the agency, including both Institutional and Project RM
  • - Emphasizing the triplet concept of risk (e.g., likelihood, impact, scenario)

Risk Management

RIDM + CRM = Risk Management (RM)

















GSFC-STD-0002: Risk Reporting


In Summary

Specific Indirect Duties (excluding typical supervisory duties):

  • Capabilities Development
    • Tool/ Process Development and
    • Documentation
    • Procedure Development
    • Training
    • Education
    • RTOP Development
  • Integrated Risk Management
  • Process owner for Risk Management
  • Works with Code 100 and other Directorate to implement risk management processes
  • Provide expert consultation and training
  • Strategic Planning/Initiative Development
  • HQ, Agency, Industry Partner, and Center Collaborations
  • Internal/External Assessments & Surveys
  • (based on needs and requirements)
  • Benchmark “Best in Class” activities
  • Gap and SWOT analysis
  • Strategic Plan Development

Specific Direct Duties (in-house and out-of-house development efforts):

  • Reliability Requirements Planning:
  • Proposal
  • Contract
  • SOW
  • Mission Assurance Requirement (MAR)
  • Reliability Program Planning (RPP)*
  • Data Collection
  • Test Planning and Assessment
  • *includes PRA Planning
  • Engineering Assessments/Analyses:
  • Reliability Modeling, Simulation, and Predictions
  • Failure Modes &Effects Analyses (FMECA/FMEA)
  • Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)
  • Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)
  • Trade Studies/Evaluations
  • Limited-Life Analysis
  • Data/Trending/Inference Analysis
  • Parts Stress and Derating Analysis
  • Worst Case Analysis
  • Fault Management
  • Consultation:
  • Training
  • Failure Investigations/Root Cause Analysis
  • Problem and/or risk resolution
  • Surveillance:
  • Internal and external surveys/audits
  • Analyses/assessment report approval
  • Reviews (e.g., Peer, Mishap Investigation, etc.)
  • Reliability and PRA working group leadership
  • Technical Interchange Meetings (TIMs)
on going challenges
On-going Challenges
  • Data Collection and Analysis Process
    • Capture data from closed loop Problem Reports (PRs)/Problem Failure Reports (PFRs)/On-Orbit Anomaly Reporting systems to support future reliability analysis and risk assessments
    • Characterize lessons learned, heritage information, and on-orbit history in a way that is most useful in early concept and design activities
    • Needs to be user/stakeholder friendly (e.g., problem reports can not be burdensome)
  • Clearer requirements flow-down
    • Consistent flow-down of NPDs and NPRs to in-house and out-of-house development efforts
    • Fill in missing links (STDs, MARs, GPRs, PGs, WIs, etc.)
    • Clearer tie-in with NRP 7120 and Systems Engineering processes
  • S/W Reliability
    • Need to establish clear guidance and direction for the center
    • Upfront in-direct funding, or project sponsored direct funding, needed to help facilitate these efforts