jure cedilnik arso ears environmental a gency of slovenia met service n.
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  1. Jure Cedilnik ARSO [EARS – Environmental Agency of Slovenia, Met. service] Use of Medium and Extended Range Forecasts in Slovenia

  2. Outline of the talk Introduction What is used for operational forecasting What are EC products used for Forecasting severe weather Experience with EC Conclusions

  3. Introduction EC cooperating member LACE and ALADIN member, LAM running locally – up to +72 hours (already medium range) only few commercial customers (but well established contact with media – mostly live radio interviews) quite small met. service

  4. What a forecaster uses daily • short range • mostly ALADIN-SI • EC, MOS on EC, also NCEP • DWD LM • PEPS • medium range • EC deterministic + EPS meteograms, clusters, MOS • Multi analysis meteograms • NCEP, mostly meteograms • DWD GME • extended range • not tackled with on daily basis

  5. What is EC used for? • media forecasts • severe weather possibility • temperature forecasts for power distribution companies • maritime conditions forecast • special forecasts (alpinistic expeditions,...) • generally

  6. Extended Range Forecasts • monthly meteograms • no specific forecast products are created, no commercial use so far, only on verbal basis and upon customers' request (payphone, daily radio interviews, short newspaper texts,... and sometimes in tv weather forecast)

  7. Seasonalforecasts • mass media’s interest • sometimes too enthusiastic • textual material for newspapers and web • using all available forecast centres’ material • no real experience yet

  8. Forecasting severe weather • warnings for the media are issued only for the next day • early warnings for civil protection up to three days ahead • relies on EC for medium range, but including all other possible sources warning thresholds: - rain: > 100mm/24hrs (NW Slovenia), > 50mm/24hrs (elsewhere) - snow: > 25 cm/12hrs - wind: > 25m/s (bora regions), >20m/s (elsewhere)

  9. Forecasting severe weather - plans • downscale extended range EC forecast • locally with a LAM • only for the target period (e.g. day 7-8) • upon forecaster’s request (downscaling on demand)

  10. Experience with medium and extended range EC forecasts • latest resolution improvement -> impact of orography on precipitation has increased (EC going meso?) • unsteadiness of meteograms through runs – unfortunately with large impact • also occurs with ensembles

  11. Flip-flopping?

  12. Situation on December 27, 05 • Mediterranean cyclone

  13. Mediterranean cyclone in last days of 05

  14. What about ensembles?

  15. Conclusions • problems with Mediterranean lows – very important for our service – unsteadiness • ensembles also unsteady – not what one would want • more and more interest for seasonal range by the media • service difficult to imagine without EC