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Manuel Ayres Regis Carvalho Michael Lawrence Hamid Shirazi Richard Speir Edith Arambula

2010 FAA Worldwide Airport Technology Transfer Conference Risk Assessment of RSA Alternatives at San Francisco International Airport. Manuel Ayres Regis Carvalho Michael Lawrence Hamid Shirazi Richard Speir Edith Arambula. Outline. Objective RSA Alternatives ACRP Methodology

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Manuel Ayres Regis Carvalho Michael Lawrence Hamid Shirazi Richard Speir Edith Arambula

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  1. 2010 FAA Worldwide Airport Technology Transfer ConferenceRisk Assessment of RSA Alternatives at San Francisco International Airport Manuel Ayres Regis Carvalho Michael Lawrence Hamid Shirazi Richard Speir Edith Arambula

  2. Outline • Objective • RSA Alternatives • ACRP Methodology • Analysis with EMAS • SFO Scenarios • Results • Conclusions

  3. Objective • Present Case-Study for probability assessment of aircraft overruns and undershoots in support of cost-benefit studies to select infrastructure alternatives for existing SFO RSAs, including the use of Engineered Materials Arrestor Systems (EMAS).

  4. Alternatives to Improve RSAs • Extend existing RSA • Modify or relocate the runway • Implemente declared distances • Use arresting systems (e.g. EMAS)

  5. ACRP Methodology • ACRP Report 3 – Analysis of Aircraft Overruns and Undershoots for Runway Safety Areas • Methodology for quantitative assessment of Runway Safety Areas http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/acrp/acrp_rpt_003.pdf

  6. Three-Part Risk Model Risk Event probability Location probability Accident consequences Operating conditions Operating conditions, terrain Location probability, obstacle location, size and type, aircraft type High High High Medium Medium Medium Low Low Low Model Structure

  7. x y ACRP Report 3 • Approach to quantitatively estimate the probability that an aircraft will exit the runway and stop beyond a given distance from the runway end y Stop Location Probability Distribution RSA

  8. Frequency Models • Probability = Ni/a / Nn (under certain operation conditions) • P{Event} is the probability (0-100%) of an accident type occur given certain operational conditions. • Xi = f(ceiling, visibility, crosswind, gusts, rain, type of aircraft, etc.)

  9. A Simple Example 1 Probability of Event (e.g. LDOR) Possible cut-off points P2 P1 0 XW1 XW2 Risk Factor (e.g. x-wind)

  10. Probability location Exceeds x P{Loc > x1} X x1 Distance x from runway end rwy end Location Models

  11. Location Model - Example

  12. Analysis with EMAS – Basic Concept

  13. Analysis with EMAS

  14. Aircraft Movements

  15. Existing Conditions – Rwys 01/19

  16. SFO RSA Alternatives • Refinement A • Bay fill to install standard EMAS on 19s • Shift 1R/19L north • Refinement B • Create standard RSAs for 28s

  17. Refinement A

  18. Summary of Results Summary of Results

  19. Impact of Runway Shift on Total Airport Probability

  20. Impact of Rwy 01R/19L Shift

  21. Thank You!

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