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Institute for Transport Studies

Institute for Transport Studies. STEP-CHANGE S ustainable T ransport E vidence & Modelling P aradigms: C ohort H ousehold A nalysis to Support N ew G oals in E ngineering D esign ‘ an empirically grounded frame for the modelling of transformational futures’. Context.

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Institute for Transport Studies

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  1. Institute for Transport Studies STEP-CHANGESustainable Transport Evidence& Modelling Paradigms: Cohort Household Analysis to Support New Goals in Engineering Design ‘an empirically grounded frame forthe modelling of transformational futures’

  2. Context • Policy need to promote step-change towards more sustainable futures, especially in transport/travel. • Limited evidence of what brings about long-term behavioural change in travel/transport. • Existing transport surveys focus on marginal trade-offs, not major qualitative change. • Existing mathematical models for city transport planning focus on stable situations/slow change. • Challenge: Need for new evidence and models.

  3. Vision • To achieve a deep, fundamental integration of social scientific and engineering methodologies: • State-of-the-art, qualitative, longitudinal survey instruments & analytical methods for eliciting and understanding behavioural change. • ‘Vision’- based planning paradigms for designing resilient urban futures for 2050. • Develop innovative mathematical modelling theories and methods. • To produce as outputs both planning methods and an evidence-base, for future exploitation by the research community and practitioners.

  4. Interconnecting Research Strands • Qualitative, Longitudinal Cohort Study • Historical Information on Step Changes • Integrating Diverse Knowledge Sources • Planning for Urban Resilience in 2010 • Development of New Transport Modelling Paradigms

  5. Project Structure

  6. Methodological Innovation • innovative nature of the panel • importance of qualitative research in a mixed-methods frame • focusing on the structures, relationships and contingencies of everyday life • for understanding behavioural contexts and processes • innovation is in the mix

  7. Multi-/Inter-/Trans-Disciplinary Approach Research Process (developed from: Julie Thompson Klein http://www.science.org.au/events/fenner/fenner2004/klein.html)

  8. Project Team • A strong interdisciplinary collaboration between two internationally leading research centres: • Institute for Transport Studies (ITS), a major EPSRC-supported centre for studying transport sustainability & modelling, and with extensive end-user engagement. • Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change (CRESC) a major ESRC research centre focusing on temporal, behavioural change in qualitative and quantitative data. • Momentum for this project from • CRESC’s ESRC Qualitative Research Laboratory • ITS’s EPSRC Transport Modelling Platform Grant • ITS/CRESC collaboration in ITS-led EPSRC project “Visions of the role of walking & cycling in 2030”

  9. Collaborations Academic Visitors • Prof Forsyth (Cornell, USA): planning paradigms • Dr Woodcock (LSHTM): impacts & evidence Academic Project Partners • Prof Neale: link to ESRC Timescapes data/study • Dr Bishop (ESDS Qualidata): existing qualitative sources • Prof Elliot (Centre for Longitudinal Studies): analysis Non-Academic Project Partners • Leeds & Manchester LAs: eg assistance with surveys • Wider local authority involvement, eg York support • Department for Transport, CABE: steering group

  10. Institute for Transport Studies STEP-CHANGESustainable Transport Evidence& modelling Paradigms: Cohort Household Analysis to support New Goals in Engineering design ‘an empirically grounded frame forthe modelling of transformational futures’

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