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Instant Carpooling. Steve Raney ULTra PRT (Heathrow Nov ’09) Cities21 new mobility non-profit Patent: Wireless carpool assistant Dynamic Ridesharing (DRS) Match within 3 days Instant Ridesharing (IRS) within 15 minutes. Empty seats: policy. 1000X more cost-effective Duh! Reduce demand

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Presentation Transcript
Instant carpooling l.jpg
Instant Carpooling

  • Steve Raney

    • ULTra PRT (Heathrow Nov ’09)

    • Cities21 new mobility non-profit

    • Patent: Wireless carpool assistant

  • Dynamic Ridesharing (DRS)

    • Match within 3 days

  • Instant Ridesharing (IRS)

    • within 15 minutes.


Empty seats policy l.jpg
Empty seats: policy

  • 1000X more cost-effective

    • Duh! Reduce demand

  • IRS: Reduce 1 SOV  phone

    • Metro extension, 1 SOV  new Mercedes

  • Homeland economic security

    • SF Bay Bridge in ’89 quake, MN I-35W bridge collapse

    • Need rapid capacity response

  • Policy jumpstarts

    • Charge $8/day suburban parking  23% commute shift

    • Extend commute benefits & tax breaks to DRS commuting. Federal workers, especially

    • More HOV lanes.


Obvious idea l.jpg
“Obvious” Idea

  • Shaheen: 1% SOV mode shift

  • 11 past, 8 current, 10 future

    • see www.dynamicridesharing.org

    • Zimride, GoLoco, nuride, Carticipate, Goose Networks, RideNow, ecolane, Seattle Smart Traveler, Google RideFinder, Hoverport, etc.

    • Invention prevalence

  • Not obvious

    • Carnegie Mellon West theme. 4 teams vote no

    • Goose. $111K WSDOT grant, 322 rides, $345/ride

    • RideNow. 12 out of 3K BART recruiting.


Still not obvious l.jpg
Still not obvious

  • Sparse GIS distribution

    • Carticipate: 10K members (need 1.5M)

    • Avego: 2,400 members

  • Members form permanent carpools & drop out.


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What will work?

  • $10/gal, 10% commuters, 100% GPS (API) smartphones + in-vehicle navigation systems

  • Clever

    • Nuride corridor strategy (not an “area”)

    • ZimRide college portals

    • “Instant” via iPhone or Android: high LOS

    • Avego integrate seats: bus, vanpool, private cars

      • 40 person software team w/ $12M committed VC

    • Google “New mobility” “platform”

      • Maps w/ traffic, Transit, RideFinder, Android.

MCI, AOL

Homes


Helps reduce sov advantage l.jpg
Helps: Reduce SOV Advantage

  • Travel utility = f(travel time, travel cost, travel experience {hassle, stress, comfort, entertainment value}, parking hassle, parking cost, reliability)

  • When util(SOV) < util (HOV), then we have:

    • SF Bay Bridge Casual Carpooling (save 15 min & $5 bridge toll)

    • DC slugging (HOV-only!)

    • Microsoft Redmond casual evening rides back to Seattle

  • Casual Carpooling and slugging: “perfect storm”

    • Very few other places where HOV is close to SOV

  • IRS pilots have higher chance of success where there is reduced SOV advantage. IRS incentives increase HOV util.


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Helps: Peak Oil – hurry up!!!

  • Plenty of petrol (shale, tar sands)

    • Gets expensive to extract

  • China & India drive skyrocketing demand.


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Avego Corridors

  • Bus route-like. Driver does not deviate route

  • Pre-defined stops on arterials

  • <1% is fine – “sliver of critical mass”

  • Driver: every day: run Avego, some days: give ride. LOS

  • Drive new route w/ iPhone, mark stops, edit stops via web

    • “wiki”-like. User created routes/stops/content.


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IRS Safety

  • Reality: casual carpooling

  • Perception: Susan UCD focus group

  • Axe murderers? Sensationalized

    • Hitchhiking is anonymous, DRS is not

  • Start: Rides w/i social/work network

  • Avoid 1 male, 1 female

  • Reputation rating

  • PIN code & photo to verify ride

  • Possible: background check

  • Possible: Big Sister (homesafe).


Last collaboration l.jpg
Last: Collaboration

  • Really big world problems

  • Grow “more human”

    • 2040 humans can’t understand 2009

  • Web 2.0 enables collaboration with zero management cost

  • Unleash human goodness (make it easy)

    • Many people, a few minutes per day

  • Satisfaction: solve something that govt fails at

  • IRS & new mobility: social movements.


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THE END: QUESTIONS


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Technology

  • Notifications

  • Prediction alg

  • Payment.



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Knowledge worker commute

  • Large suburban solo driving reduction is hard

    • 80% SOV to 79% SOV is hard

    • But, SOV is “least worst,” not loved

    • SOV: no-brainer background task

    • Charging $6 per day for parking works ($9 gas)

    • Pay $4 per day not to park - fails

    • Current carpooling: “fampools”

  • Value of time

    • Commute: 50% of hourly. Lunch: 200%

    • Waiting under uncertainty, 3X

  • Each commuter: basket of objections.


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Knowledge worker commute

  • 30% time penalty: OK (20 min SOV vs. 26 min alternative)

  • Traditional carpool psychology is complex:

    • Matchmaking: anonymous, superficial rejection (web dating)

    • Sleep, uncertainty stress, and safety are important

  • Customer support: eliminate nightmares

  • Mid-day stranding: mtngs, lunch, shop

  • PM Stranding: want “no penalty” emergency ride home

  • Good commute: “time went fast.”


How to grow pilot routes l.jpg
How to grow pilot routes?

  • Work with existing carpool flow vectors

    • Have fixed carpools also make dynamic pickups

  • Target demographic?

  • “Practice” by picking up “ghosts.”


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GrassRoutes

  • Get a couple of folks together (commuters)

  • Grow circle to 5 drivers and 5 riders on a route

  • Avego: help with phones & guaranteed ride home

  • 10 people can change the world

  • Grow from 10 people, add routes.


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Avego Shared Transport

  • Mapflow (parent): 40 person company. Congestion charging in London. Maps (GIS). Tracking cars (GPS)

  • Avego division mission: reduce SOV

    • (SOV: single occupancy vehicle)

  • Shared Transport: iPhone instant carpooling

    • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgTNK85bG_k

    • Integrates with vanpools, traditional carpools, buses.


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Avego Status

  • $12M in venture capital

  • iPhone software on Apple AppStore

  • Very difficult to succeed (hurry up Peak!)

    • Long, multiyear campaign

    • We don’t know what will work (try stuff!)

  • Pilot project at a 20,000-student university

    • Campus shuttle bus system is integrated

  • Futurefleet “coach bus” pilot project.


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Steve Raney bio

  • Launch consultant for Avego

  • ULTra personal rapid transit (London Heathrow Airport)

  • 3 masters: business, software, and transportation from Columbia, RPI, and Berkeley

  • Tech product research at Microsoft, Citigroup, and Silicon Valley start-ups 

  • Proj Mgr for BART’s Group Rapid Transit study

  • Principal Investigator for the U.S. EPA’s "Transforming Office Parks into Transit Villages" study 

  • Author: 5 Transportation Research Board (TRB) papers 

  • Patent: "wireless carpool assistant"

  • Conference presentations: TRB, Association for Commuter Transportation, Intelligent Transportation Systems World Congress, Rail~Volution, Greenbuild Expo, Engineers for a Sustainable World, Housing California, and American Planning Association (California Chapter).


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