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US and World Cotton Supply and Demand Outlook

US and World Cotton Supply and Demand Outlook. Presented at the Sourcing USA Summit II November 14-17, 2002 Scottsdale, AZ Prepared by Economic Services National Cotton Council. Cotton Prices. World Cotton Supplies USDA: 136 mil bales for ‘02 crop, down from 141 last year.

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US and World Cotton Supply and Demand Outlook

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  1. US and World Cotton Supply and Demand Outlook Presented at the Sourcing USA Summit II November 14-17, 2002 Scottsdale, AZ Prepared by Economic Services National Cotton Council

  2. Cotton Prices

  3. World Cotton SuppliesUSDA: 136 mil bales for ‘02 crop, down from 141 last year

  4. World Cotton Supplies47 mil bales of old-crop cotton

  5. World Beginning StocksBy Location 47.8 mil bales 47.5 mil bales

  6. World Cotton SuppliesUSDA puts production at 88 mil bales

  7. Change in Cotton ProductionDown 10 mil bales in 2002 relative to 2001

  8. 2002 US Cotton Production (Mil Bales) 3.9 mil bales, down 1.7 from ‘01 5.8 mil bales, down 1.1 from ‘01 5.4 mil bales, up 0.9 from ‘01 2.7 mil bales, down 0.5 from ‘01

  9. World Cotton Mill UseUSDA: 96.2 mil bales

  10. World Fiber Mill Use

  11. Textile Polyester ProductionSource: PCI

  12. Change in Cotton Mill UseFrom ‘01 to ‘02, China accounts for over half of the growth

  13. US Cotton Mill UseUSDA: 7.7 mil bales

  14. US Real GDP Growth

  15. Real Exchange Rate IndicesSource: Federal Reserve Board

  16. US Cotton Textile & Apparel Imports by Country of Origin * Estimate based on imports as of July

  17. US Cotton Mill Use & Supply

  18. US Cotton Mill Use, Supply& Exports

  19. Summary • In 2002, lower production in the US and abroad • Despite drop in production, total supplies still second largest in recent history • Demand growth hinges on general economy and competition from MMF • Current estimates suggest tighter world market for ‘03

  20. Ginners Crushers Merchants Warehouses Manufacturers Producers Cooperatives

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