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Climate outlook for 2010/11 22 September 2010 Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture

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Climate outlook for 2010/11 22 September 2010 Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture. Maunder Minimum. Maunder minimum. Little ice age. Maunder minimum. Little ice age. Maunder minimum. Little ice age. Earth. Sun. Magnetic fields. Geomagnetic activity from the sun.

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Presentation Transcript
slide1
Climate outlook for 2010/11

22 September 2010

Johan van den Berg

Santam Agriculture

slide7
Maunder minimum

Little ice age

slide8
Maunder minimum

Little ice age

slide9
Maunder minimum

Little ice age

slide13
Earth

Sun

Magnetic fields

slide16
Tropical cyclones as part of climate change and climate variability
  • Cyclones develop over water with high energy (warm)
  • If water of oceans are warmer then higher frequency of cyclones
slide18
Tropical cyclone

H

L

Cyclone

Water = 18-28oC

Water = 10-12oC

slide20
The role of ENSO* on global climate

*ENSO = El Nino Southern Oscillation

slide21
H

L

slide28
ENSO* and the RSA maize crop

* El Nino Southern Oscillation

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Summary
  • El Nino of 2009/10 – abnormal wet
  • La Nina development for 2010/11 – wet conditions for Summer Rainfall Area and dry for Western Cape
  • Maize crop – favourable production conditions
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