Energy Security and Climate Change: The Hard Choices Facing Us

1. St Matthews Church October 17th 2007 Energy security and climate change: the hard choices facing us. Recipient of James Watt Medal 5th October 2007 Keith Tovey (杜伟贤)M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation: Energy Science Director: School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia CRed

2. Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 2003 1979 • Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region • Nasa satellite imagery • 20% reduction in 24 years Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

3. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018.

4. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

5. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.

6. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable • Transport Fuels: • Biodiesel? • Bioethanol? • Compressed gas from • methane from waste. But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs.

7. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

8. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

9. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Output 78 000 GWh per annum Sufficient for 13500 house in Orkney Save 40000 tonnes of CO2

10. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

11. Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh

12. Options for Renewable Energy: Solar Thermal • Performance of an actual solar collector 9th December 2006 – 13th October • 2007 • Average gain (over 3 years) is 2.245 kWh per day • Central Heating Boiler rarely needed for Hot Water from Easter to ~ 1st • October • More Hot Water used – the greater amount of solar energy is gained • Optimum orientation for solar hot water collectors for most houses is NOT • due South

13. Options for Renewable Energy: Solar Thermal • Significant surplus of energy in summer • Explore increasing temperature limit • provided there is an anti-scald device fitted. • Training needed to educate users to get optimum from solar collector in mid- • season (setting of Central Heating Hot Water timers) • Energy/Carbon benefits to be gained by providing solar hot water on a multi- • house basis.

14. Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security There is a looming capacity shortfall Even with a full deployment of renewables. A 10% reduction in demand per house will see a rise of 7% in total demand - Increased population decreased household size • Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more and must close by 2015 • New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new nuclear station each year beyond 2018 • New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2018

15. Our Choices: They are difficult • Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. • If our answer is NO • Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power • Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks? • If our answer is NO • Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly • unless we can develop carbon sequestration and apply it to ALL our • COAL fired power stations within 10 years - unlikely. If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

16. Our Choices: They are difficult • If our answer is YES • By 2020 • we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS • imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria • Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> • If not: • We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. • Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming by using coal? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? – • Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendantSecurity issues that raises.

17. On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. Around 4 million in the Diocese of Norwich. In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person Is this Fair? "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

18. Raising Awareness At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai • A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2. • 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. • A Mobile Phone charger: up to 20 kWh per year • ~ 1000 balloons each year. 10 kg CO2 • Standby on electrical appliances • 60+ kWh a year - 4000 balloons. • Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres) • --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for1 hour? 1.6 miles

19. Saving Energy – A Practical Guide Ways to Reduce Your Carbon Footprint Micro CHP Heat Pumps Micro Wind

20. Involve the local Community • The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine. • On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity. • Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward. • Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015. • Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray.

21. It is all very well for South East, but what about the North? House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of February House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels - less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!

22. Involve the local Community Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray. The Parish Kirk, and Community Centre are heated by heat Pumps partly powered by Wind Turbines Waste cooking oil from other islands is processed into biodiesel for farm and other vehicles. Ethanol used in process is obtained from fermentation of harvested sea weed

23. The Behavioural Dimension • Household size has little impact on electricity consumption. • Consumption varies by up to a factor of 9 for any given household size. • Allowing for Income still shows a range of 6 or more. • Education/Awareness is important

24. Target Day Results of the “Big Switch-Off” With a concerted effort savings of 25% or more are possible How can these be translated into long term savings?

26. Personal Attitudes to Energy Use can be significant

27. Social Awareness of Occupational Impact on Climate Change

28. Social Awareness of Occupational Impact on Climate Change

29. Hard Choices • What can we as individuals do? • What can you do collectively as a Church or Community? • Visit the CRed WEB Site • Sign a pledge to • combat global warming • help secure a sustainable environment for our children • help reduce the adverse impacts of Global Warming • help secure energy supplies for the future • saving energy • Adopting technical solutions • Promoting Awareness • Promoting appropriate renewable energy www.cred-uk.org St Pauls Church, Tuckswood

31. Conclusions • Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades • Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity more likely in future. • Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy and small changes to behaviour. It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take. • Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years. • Otherwise Nuclear??? • Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us.

32. WEBSITE Cred-uk.org/ This presentation will be available from tomorrow at above WEB Site: follow Academic Links Conclusions • Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge? "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." LaoTzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

33. The average family car releases 10 grams of CO2 every 50m Animation Courtesy of Rob Hannington

36. Wind Turbines are Incredibly Inefficient • Efficiency: • the ratio of the USEFUL work to the total energy available (or expended) • Oxford English Dictionary Modern Wind Turbines convert 40 – 42%% of available energy in the wind Modern Coal Fired Power Stations achieve 38% Sizewell B achieves 32% A car engine achieve 20 - 25% at best Compared to many other energy devices, Wind Turbines are Very Efficient

37. How can you tell if you have a condensing boiler Have you got a hot water cylinder to supply hot water? If there is no cylinder – you will have a combi boiler unless the water is heated by electricity. You can have both condensing and non condensing boilers (either combi or not) To work out if you have a condensing boiler – have a look at the exhaust when the boiler is running. If there are clouds of water vapour coming from it then it is a condensing boiler. A condensing boiler will be 85 – 92% efficient A normal boiler will be only 65 – 75% efficient

38. How can you tell if you have cavity walls? • A solid wall • A cavity wall • With insulation