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New Developments of Atmospheric and Oceanic data assimilation systems in China

New Developments of Atmospheric and Oceanic data assimilation systems in China Jishan Xue, Renhe Zhang Chinese Academy of Meteological Sciences. Outline. Current status of operational systems GRAPES-Var: new assimilation system for atmospheric data

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New Developments of Atmospheric and Oceanic data assimilation systems in China

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  1. New Developments of Atmospheric and Oceanic data assimilation systems in China Jishan Xue, Renhe Zhang Chinese Academy of Meteological Sciences

  2. Outline • Current status of operational systems • GRAPES-Var: new assimilation system for atmospheric data • Application of ARGO data in oceanic data assimilation • Participation in AMY08

  3. Current operational assimilation system in CMA Operational NWP : • Atmospheric data: SSI from NCEP for global, GRAPES-3DVar for regional • Oceanic data: not assimilated Operational climate model: • NCC-GODAS: 3D-variational data assimilation system , time window : 4 weeks, SST only

  4. New developments in atmospheric data assimilation • GRAPES-Var will be the new data assimilation system as one component of new NWP system GRAPES • GRAPES- Chinese next generation NWP system developed domestically since 2001, partly operationally run since 2006. • GRAPES-Var: a variational data assimilation system with stresses at remote sensing data • Options of configurations of GRAPES-Var GRAPES-3DVar Global, GRAPES-3DVar Meso GRAPES-4DVar Global, GRAPES-4DVar Meso

  5. Conventional DATA preprocessing Q.C. Backgrounds 初始场 Unconventional DATA Digital filter Preprocessing GRAPES_ MODEL GRAPES-Var Forecasting Q.C. 主要成果之二 Flow chart of GRAPES data assimilation 主要业务应用试验系统 国家气象中心:2004（60公里，全国范围），2005（30公里全国范围） 上海台风研究所: 西太平洋台风预报试验系统（2002-2003历史回报、2004-2005实时预报） 广州区域气象中心：季风区-华南-珠三角三重套网格系统（36/12/3公里），2004起实时预报 B.C. (optionally)

  6. Coverage of data currently available SYNOP TEMP SHIPS AIREP

  7. Coverage of data currently available 2xAMSU-B (NOAA-16/17) Winds from 5 GEOS (Met-5/7 GOES-9/10/12) NOAA16/17 AMSUB GTS AMVs NOAA15/16 AMSUA FY2C AMVs 2xAMSU-A (NOAA-15/16) Winds from FY2C

  8. No cycle The impact of new system

  9. Track Forecast (144h) The impact of new system

  10. The impact of new system ATOVS资料循环同化对台风强度预报的影响

  11. 新一代全球资料同化与中期预报试验系统 全球中期预报（2005-Matsa台风）

  12. Usages of obs. Data with high spatial or temporal resolutions Data used in GRAPES-CHAF: AWS, VAD,AMV,AMDAR,GPS CYCLE系统同化的资料列表示例 AMDAR与FY-2云导风 一次同化循环的资料时间与空间分布

  13. 新一代中尺度资料同化与预报试验系统 稠密观测资料同化对预报的影响：华南一次暴雨过程（2005年8月13日12时24小时预报） 12小时海平面气压预报 a（左）：无逐时同化；b（中）：逐时同化；c（右）：实况 12小时6h降水预报 a（左）：无逐时同化；b（中）：逐时同化；c（右）：实况

  14. 卫 星 地面站 海面滞留约1-6小时 浮标上升时测量海水的温度和盐度 漂 移约10天 Oceanic assimilation: ARGO data  Q.C. of ARGO data  Assimilation of ARGO data  Impact on ENSO prediction  Impact on short term climate prediction Argo float

  15. Distribution of Argo Data

  16. OISST_v.2和NCC-GODAS海面温度之间均方根误差(RMS)的经向平均值（2001到2003年8月）OISST_v.2和NCC-GODAS海面温度之间均方根误差(RMS)的经向平均值（2001到2003年8月） 上图：红线和黑线分别为NCC-GODAS中包含和不包含Argo 资料 下图：NCC-GODAS中包含和不包含Argo 资料RMS的差值。

  17. OISST_v.2和NCC-GODAS海面温度之间均方根误差(RMS)的纬向平均值（2001到2003年8月）OISST_v.2和NCC-GODAS海面温度之间均方根误差(RMS)的纬向平均值（2001到2003年8月） 上图：红线和黑线分别为NCC-GODAS中包含和不包含Argo 资料 下图：NCC-GODAS中包含和不包含Argo 资料RMS的差值。

  18. NCC-GODAS系统分析的NINO指数（蓝色）与相应NCEP再分析OISST.V2(红色)对比NCC-GODAS系统分析的NINO指数（蓝色）与相应NCEP再分析OISST.V2(红色)对比

  19. 5°S-5 °N平均SSTA的时间-经度图（左:NCEP OISST.V2；中:NCC-GODAS with ARGO；右:NCC-GODAS without ARGO）

  20. 沿赤道STA的垂直剖面图（左: EMC/NCEP；中: NCC-GODAS with ARGO；右:NCC-GODAS without ARGO）

  21. Impact study of Argo data assimilation on seasonal prediction with NCC coupled models (based on hindcasts)

  22. CGCM降水预报技巧(ACC) 1998-2003 1993-2003 有ARGO资料的同化资料 无ARGO资料的同化资料

  23. CGCM温度预报技巧(ACC) 1998-2003 1993-2003 有ARGO资料的同化资料 无ARGO资料的同化资料

  24. 2002年夏季降水距平百分率（%） 预报（有ARGO） 观测 预报（无ARGO）

  25. 夏季降水距平百分率（%） 2003 2004 预报 观测

  26. Results show that initial fields derived by assimilation system with Argo data improve the summer season precipitation predictions.

  27. Participation in AMY08 • Atmospheric data assimilation : Based on GRAPES-3DVar Global or regional with all available data to be used. • Oceanic data assimilation : Based on GODAS • Technical issues: Q. C. observational data More data to be used in GODAS and GRAPES-Var Improvement of performance in the AMY domain Coupling of two systems

  28. 谢谢！ Thank You!

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