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Local Climate Policies and Green Party Influence in German Municipalities

Sub-national actors like local governments play a crucial role in addressing climate change, with cities responsible for a significant portion of global greenhouse gas emissions. This study examines the influence of Green Party strength on climate action in German municipalities, utilizing instrumental variable analysis and causal graphs to explore the relationship between local council election results, renewable energy installations, and political preferences.

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Local Climate Policies and Green Party Influence in German Municipalities

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  1. Climate Policies and Green Party Performance in Local Elections KONRAD BIERL, ANGELIKA VON DULONG, PETER WIELAND, KLAUS EISENACK HUMBOLDT-UNIVERSITÄT ZU BERLIN CAUSAL GRAPHS WORKSHOP, APRIL 23RD, 2024

  2. Outline 1. Motivation 2. State of the Art 3. The Case of German Municipalities 4. Method 4.1 IV Analysis 4.2 Causal Graph 4.3 Data 5. Preliminary results 2 Peter Wieland CAUSAL GRAPHS

  3. Motivation Sub-national actors increasingly address climate change E.g., mitigation & adaptation planning or emission reduction targets Cities are responsible for 70% of the global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions GHG emissions are conventionally considered a global public good Local governments are not expected to act (free riding incentives) 3 Peter Wieland CAUSAL GRAPHS

  4. State of the Art Local governments still implement mitigation policies. Why? A set of possible drivers of local governmental climate action • National obligation • Exposure to climate risks • Co-benefits • Lobby groups • Local preferences (including political preferences) Local green party strength 4 Peter Wieland CAUSAL GRAPHS

  5. The Case of German Municipalities Article 28 Grundgesetz Democratically elected governments Municipal self-government Climate policy competencies Self-government Germany‘s Administrative Division (Source: WikiepdiaCommons) Governing through enabling Bulkeley and Kern (2006) 5

  6. Method: Instrumental Variable Analysis The effect of green political parties (expressed through local council election results) on climate action in municipalities (renewable energy installation) Endogeneity concerns • Local green votes are expected to be endogenous to voter’s preferences and to other factors such as natural potential and economic growth Instrument construction • Variations over time in support for the Green Party at the national level • Weekly national opinion polls (Sonntagsfrage) 6 Peter Wieland CAUSAL GRAPHS

  7. Method: Instrumental Variable Analysis Instrument Own presentation 7

  8. Method: Causal Graph 8 Peter Wieland CAUSAL GRAPHS

  9. Method: Data Data types Weekly election polls (Forsa) Local council elections (official data) Renewable energy installations (MaStR) Sample 2.000 of > 10.000 municipalities 13 of 16 states Own presentation 9

  10. Preliminary Results First Stage Second Stage (PV only) 10 Peter Wieland CAUSAL GRAPHS

  11. Preliminary Results Possible explanations • Nixon-to-China paradox • Difference in focus between local and national Green Party • Ideas? 11 Peter Wieland CAUSAL GRAPHS

  12. Thank you very much for listening! Questions? 12 Peter Wieland CAUSAL GRAPHS

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