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29th session of the Working Group on Effects

29th session of the Working Group on Effects. Common Items: Ex-post Assessment. Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE) ICP Modelling & Mapping. J-P Hettelingh, M Posch , J Slootweg www.rivm.nl/cce. Current structure of Environmental Impact Assessment. TFIAM. EMEP/CIAM-RAINS/GAINS. WGSR.

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29th session of the Working Group on Effects

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  1. 29th session of the Working Group on Effects Common Items:Ex-post Assessment Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE)ICP Modelling & Mapping J-P Hettelingh, M Posch, J Slootwegwww.rivm.nl/cce

  2. Current structure of Environmental Impact Assessment TFIAM EMEP/CIAM-RAINS/GAINS WGSR - Exceedance - ecoarea at risk - AOT40 Emissions Depositions & Critical loads & Critical levels WGE

  3. Structure of “Ex-post” Environmental Impact Assessment TFIAM EMEP/CIAM-RAINS/GAINS WGSR - Exceedance - ecoarea at risk - AOT40 Emissions Depositions & Critical loads & Critical levels O3 variables AOT, POD, … WGE indicators Target loads Asp.Targets D/R relations WGE Empirical SiteSpec. DM

  4. Ex-post Assessment to date (after dry-run) (1): • 1. Begin June 2010: • CIAM provides 5 so-called Baseline emission scenarios: • NAT-2000 (NAT = nationally reported emissions) • NAT-2020 (national scenarios, sort of CLE) • PRI-2020 (PRI = PRIMES model output) • MFR-2020 • PRI-2030 2. Summer 2010 (end June - mid Aug): EMEP/MSC-W runs the Unified Model for 5 meteorological years (1996-98,2000,2003), i.e. 25 model runs [despite vacation/own reporting obligations – Thanks! (originally planned for January!)]

  5. Ex-post Assessment to date (2): 3. Second-half August 2010: CCE pre-processes model output (e.g. computing meteorological averages) and sends data to ICPs Some ICPs provided feedback … Why run the full-blown EMEP model? Because the linearised version (‘transfer matrices’), available at CIAM and CCE, provides only a limited number of variables …

  6. Variables distributed (annual values (averages) on 50×50 EMEP grid): Ozone: MMAOT40_IAM_DF.csv POD1.0_CF.csv POD1.0_IAM_DF.csv POD1.0_IAM_MF.csv POD1.6_CF.csv POD1.6_IAM_DF.csv POD1.6_IAM_MF.csv POD3.0_IAM_CR.csv SOMO35.csv SURF_MAXO3.csv SURF_ppb_O3.csv Concentrations: SURF_ugN_NH3.csv SURF_ugN_NO.csv SURF_ugN_NO2.csv SURF_ugS_SO2.csv SURF_ugS_SO4.csv PM: SURF_ugN_PNO3_C.csv SURF_ugN_PNO3_F.csv SURF_ugN_ANH4.csv SURF_ug_PPM25.csv SURF_ug_PPMCO.csv SURF_ug_SEASALT_C.csv SURF_ug_SEASALT_F.csv Deposition: DDEP_OXN_m2Conif.csv DDEP_OXN_m2Crops.csv DDEP_OXN_m2Decid.csv DDEP_OXN_m2Grid.csv DDEP_OXN_m2Seminat.csv DDEP_RDN_m2Conif.csv DDEP_RDN_m2Crops.csv DDEP_RDN_m2Decid.csv DDEP_RDN_m2Grid.csv DDEP_RDN_m2Seminat.csv DDEP_SOX_m2Conif.csv DDEP_SOX_m2Crops.csv DDEP_SOX_m2Decid.csv DDEP_SOX_m2Grid.csv DDEP_SOX_m2Seminat.csv WDEP_OXN.csv WDEP_RDN.csv WDEP_SOX.csv

  7. Difference between NAT-2020 and PRI-2020 S-deposition total N deposition

  8. Ex-post Assessment: What next? • Assessment with current scenarios to be reported • to TFIAM in 24-25 January 2011 (Stockholm) • 2. TFIAM plans to prepare 4 new scenarios for • WGRS negotiations (spring?) • 3. EMEP/MSC-W runs model for those scenarios • (hopefully!) • 4. ICPs make new assessments and report … • … and this continues as long as the WGSR sees fit

  9. To be discussed/decided/acted upon at WGE: • Can EMEP/MSC-W carry out the model runs? • Who reports results to TFIAM / WGSR? • (to be reported to anyone else?) • - Any further questions?

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