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TPB SCENARIO STUDY Progress on “CLRP Aspirations” and “What Would it Take?” Scenarios

Item 3. TPB SCENARIO STUDY Progress on “CLRP Aspirations” and “What Would it Take?” Scenarios. Monica Bansal Department of Transportation Planning Presentation to the TPB Technical Committee September 5, 2008. Two New Scenarios. CLRP Aspirations. What Would it Take?.

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TPB SCENARIO STUDY Progress on “CLRP Aspirations” and “What Would it Take?” Scenarios

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  1. Item 3 TPB SCENARIO STUDYProgress on “CLRP Aspirations” and “What Would it Take?” Scenarios Monica Bansal Department of Transportation Planning Presentation to the TPB Technical Committee September 5, 2008

  2. Two New Scenarios CLRP Aspirations What Would it Take? Draws on past scenarios (5 transportation/land use scenarios and 2 value pricing scenarios) to provide an ambitious yet attainable vision of land use and transportation for the 2010 CLRP update. Starts with CO2 goals (80% below 2005 levels in 2050 and 20% reduction by 2020) and assess what scales and combinations of interventions will be necessary to achieve the goal.

  3. Study Timeline

  4. Land Use Component(Version 1) Households, Growth shifts 2010-2030

  5. Land Use Component(Version 1) Employment, Growth shifts 2010-2030

  6. Transportation Component (Version 1) Bus stations are located in activity centers, park and ride lots and existing Metrorail stations via dedicated access ramps

  7. Building the ScenariosWhat Would it Take? Three categories of strategies to reduce mobile CO2 emissions Fuel Efficiency Fuel Carbon Intensity Travel Efficiency Reduce VMT through changes in land use, travel behavior, prices Reduce congestion Improve operational efficiency Beyond CAFE standards [currently 35 mpg by 2020] Alternative fuels (biofuels, hydrogen, electricity) Vehicle technology (hybrid engine technology)

  8. What Can We Do by Reducing Congestion? Source: University of California, Riverside

  9. Analyzing Cost-Effectiveness Initial analysis of cost-effectiveness of Transportation Emissions Reduction Measures ($ per ton of CO2 reduced)

  10. Analyzing Emissions Cumulatively Transportation Sector Emissions Example Reductions for Measures If we begin reducing in 2020 or 2030 rather than steadily reducing now, we will not reduce the same level of cumulative emissions as is needed.

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