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Mitigating global warming. Chautauqua UWA-6 , Dr. E.J. Zita 9-11 July 2007 Fire, Air, and Water: Effects of the Sun, Atmosphere, and Oceans in Climate Change and Global Warming. Title. Solving the Climate and Energy Problem. Stephen W. Pacala Petrie Chair in Ecology

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mitigating global warming
Mitigating global warming

Chautauqua UWA-6, Dr. E.J. Zita

9-11 July 2007

Fire, Air, and Water: Effects of the Sun, Atmosphere, and Oceans in

Climate Change and Global Warming

slide3

Solving the Climate and Energy Problem

Stephen W. Pacala

Petrie Chair in Ecology

Director, Princeton Environmental Institute

April 2006

slide4

Surface Air Warming (°F)

2xCO2 Climate

4xCO2 Climate

GFDL Model

slide5

Monsters Behind the Door

  • Ocean Circulation
  • Hurricanes
  • Sahel Drought
  • Ice Sheets
slide7

Increasing Hurricane Intensity

Source: Knutson and Tuleya 2004, Journal of Climate 17, 3477-3495

slide8

Drought in the Sahel

(Held et al. 2006)

slide9

Ice Sheet Instability

(Oppenheimer et al. 2004)

slide10

$100/tC

Carbon emission charges in the neighborhood of $100/tC can enable most available alternatives. (PV is an exception.)

$100/tC is approximately the October 2005 EU trading price.

Source: Robert Socolow

slide11

Three interdependent problems lead to the conclusion that it is time to replace our energy system…

  • The Oil Problem (OP)
  • The Air Pollution Problem (APP)
  • The Climate Problem (CP)
slide13

Costs of Iraq, Afghanistan and Enhanced Security in Billions of US Dollars (4 Years)

  • Iraq 309
  • Afganistan 99
  • Enhanced Security 24
  • Other 45
  • Total 477
  • Time Frame FY 2002-2005
  • Source Congressional Research Service Report Steve Kosiak
slide14

Incremental Costs Since 9/11

  • Grand Total, Iraq
      • DoD costs: $585 billion
      • Non-DoD assistance: $24 billion
      • VA costs: $77-179 billion
      • Brain injuries: $14-35 billion
      • Interest: $98-386 billion
      • Total: $798-1,209 billion
  • Stiglitz
    • Direct costs: $839-1,189 billion
    • Macroeconomic: $187-1,050 billion
    • Total: $1,026-2,239 billion

Source: Steve Kosiak

Center for Strategic and Budgetary Analysis

slide15

Estimated Deaths Per Year from

Air Pollution

US – 130,000

World – >3,000,000

Source: The Skeptical Environmentalist

pp. 168, 182

@ $2.5 million per life, US cost is $ 330 billion/y

slide16

Three interdependent problems lead to the conclusion that it is time to replace our energy system…

  • The Oil Problem (OP)
  • The Air Pollution Problem (APP)
  • The Climate Problem (CP)

Do we have the technological know-how to construct an energy system that would solve all three problems?

slide17

Carbon Capture

Carbon Storage

Carbon Science

Carbon Policy

Carbon Mitigation Initiative at Princeton, 2001-2010

$21,150,000 funding from BP and Ford.

slide18

Stabilization Wedges:

Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies

Stephen W. Pacala and Robert Socolow

Science Vol. 305 968-972 August 13, 2004

slide20

Past Emissions

Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year

14

Historical

emissions

7

1.9 

0

2106

1956

2006

2056

slide21

The Stabilization Triangle

Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year

14

Currently projected path = “ramp”

Stabilization Triangle

Interim Goal

O

Historical

emissions

7

Flatpath

1.9 

0

2106

1956

2006

2056

slide22

21

Business As Usual

GtC/yr

(530)

(750)

14

Ramp = Delay

Stabilization

triangle

 850 ppm

Historical

emissions

(470)

7

Flat = Act Now

 500 ppm

(850)

(320)

(500)

(500)

1.9

(500)

2206

2156

1956

2006

2056

2106

The Stabilization Triangle: Beat doubling or accept tripling (details)

(380)

(850)

Values in parentheses are ppm. Note the identity (a fact about the size of the Earth’s atmosphere): 1 ppm = 2.1 GtC.

slide23

The Demography of Capital

Historic emissions, all uses

2003-2030 power-plant lifetime CO2 commitments WEO-2004 Reference Scenario.

Lifetime in years: coal 60, gas 40, oil 20.

Policy priority: Deter investments in new long-lived high-carbon stock:

not only new power plants, but also new buildings.

Credit for comparison: David Hawkins, NRDC

slide24

Wedges

Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year

14

14 GtC/y

Currently projected path

Seven “wedges”

O

Historical

emissions

7 GtC/y

7

Flatpath

1.9 

0

2106

1956

2006

2056

slide25

1 GtC/yr

Total = 25 Gigatons carbon

50 years

  • Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years. This is 2.5 trillion dollars at $100/tC.

A “solution” to the CO2 problem should provide at least one wedge.

What is a “Wedge”?

A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr. The strategy has already been commercialized at scale somewhere.

slide29

Wedges

EFFICIENCY

  • Buildings, ground transport, industrial processing, lighting, electric power plants.

DECARBONIZED ELECTRICITY

  • Natural gas for coal
  • Power from coal or gas with CCS
  • Nuclear power
  • Power from renewables: wind, photovoltaics, hydropower, geothermal.

DECARBONIZED FUELS

  • Synthetic fuel from coal or natural gas, with carbon capture and storage
  • Biofuels
  • Hydrogen
    • from coal and natural gas, with carbon capture and storage
    • from nuclear energy
    • from renewable energy (hydro, wind, PV, etc.)

FUEL DISPLACEMENT BY LOW-CARBON ELECTRICITY

  • Grid-charged batteries for transport
  • Heat pumps for furnaces and boilers

NATURAL SINKS

  • Forestry (reduced deforestation, afforestation, new plantations)
  • Agricultural soils

OP,APP,CP

OP,APP,CP

OP,APP,CP

OP,APP,CP

CP

slide30

Efficiency and Conservation

transport

buildings

power

industry

Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge:

2 billion cars at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg.

lifestyle

slide31

Efficiency in transport

Cost = negative to $2000 - $3000 per car (hybrid Prius). Fuel savings ~150 gallons per year = emissions savings of ~0.5 tC/yr =carbon cost > $2/gal !

Effort needed for 1 wedge:

2 billion gasoline and diesel cars (10,000 miles/car-yr) at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg

500 million cars now.

Photos courtesy of Ford, WMATA, Washington State Ridesharing Organization

slide32

Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge:

700 GW (twice current capacity) displacing coal power.

Nuclear

Electricity

Phase out of nuclear power creates the need for another half wedge.

Graphic courtesy of NRC

slide33

Power with Carbon Capture and Storage

Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge:

Carbon capture and storage at 800 GW coal power plants.

Graphics courtesy of DOE Office of Fossil Energy

slide34

Carbon Storage

Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge:

3500 In Salahs or Sleipners @1 MtCO2/yr

100 x U.S. CO2 injection rate for EOR

A flow of CO2 into the Earth equal to the flow of oil out of the Earth today

Sleipner project, offshore Norway

Graphic courtesy of David Hawkins

Graphic courtesy of Statoil ASA

slide35

King Coal

C

Partial Combustion

CO

+ H2O

Shift Reaction

Best CO/H Ratio

For Liquid Fuels

CO, H2

H2O,

CO2

,

H2

CO2

Complete the

Shift Reaction

,

Turbine

Syngas Reactor

Turbine

Hydrogen

Electricity

Liquid

Fuels

Geologic

Storage

Hydrogen

Cars

IGCC

APP OP OP,APP OP,APP CP

slide36

New Builds by BP

DF-2 announced February 2006. Coke to hydrogen to >500 Megawatts electricity. ~ One million tons per year of CO2 to spent Californian oil reservoirs.

DF-1 announced June 2006. Natural gas to hydrogen to 350 Megawatts of electricity. ~One million tons per year of CO2 to a spent oil reservoir in the North Sea.

En Salah. One million tons per year CO2 sequestration project.

slide37

The Future Fossil Fuel Power Plant

  • Shown here: After 10 years of operation of a 1000 MW coal plant, 60 Mt (90 Mm3) of CO2 have been injected, filling a horizontal area of 40 km2 in each of two formations.
  • Assumptions:
  • 10% porosity
  • 1/3 of pore space accessed
  • 60 m total vertical height for the two formations.
  • Note: Plant is still young.
slide38

Shallow-zone Effects

  • Unsaturated Soils
  • Groundwater Resources
  • Numerical Simulations
  • Analytical Solutions

Well-leakage dynamics

Flow Dynamics

  • Spatial Locations
  • Well Properties
  • Cement Degradation

Carbon Storage

CO2 Injection and Leakage Pathways

slide39

Wind Electricity

  • Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge:
  • One million 2-MW windmills displacing coal power.
    • Today: 40,000 MW (2%)

Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind turbine located in Grevenbroich, Germany

(Danish Wind Industry Association)

slide40

Wind Hydrogen

  • Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge:
  • H2 instead of gasoline or diesel in 2 billion 60 mpg vehicles
  • Two million 2 MW windmills
    • Twice as many windmills as for a wedge of wind electricity
    • Today: 40,000 MW (1%)
    • Assumes the H2 fuels 100-mpg cars

Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind

turbine located in Grevenbroich, Germany (Danish Wind Industry Association)

slide41

Solar Electricity

  • Effort needed for 1 wedge:
  • Install 40 GWpeak each year
    • 2 GWpeak in place today, rate of production growing at 20%/yr (slice requires 50 years at 15%).
  • 2 million hectares dedicated use by 2054 = 2 m2 per person.

Graphics courtesy of DOE Photovoltaics Program

Cost = expensive (2x – 40x other electricity but declining at 10% per year).

slide42

Biofuels

Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge:

Two billion 60 mpg cars running on biofuels

250 million hectares of high-yield crops (one sixth of world cropland)

Usina Santa Elisa mill in Sertaozinho, Brazil (http://www.nrel.gov/data/pix/searchpix.cgi?getrec=5691971&display_type=verbose&search_reverse=1_

slide43

Natural Stocks

Forests

Soils

Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge:

Elimination of tropical deforestation

and

Rehabilitation of 400 million hectares (Mha) temperate or 300 Mha tropical forest

Effort needed by 2056 for 1 wedge:

Conservation tillage on all cropland

Photo: SUNY Stonybrook

Photo: Brazil: Planting with a jab planter. FAO

slide44

Wedges

EFFICIENCY

  • Buildings, ground transport, industrial processing, lighting, electric power plants.

DECARBONIZED ELECTRICITY

  • Natural gas for coal
  • Power from coal or gas with carbon capture and storage
  • Nuclear power
  • Power from renewables: wind, photovoltaics, hydropower, geothermal.

DECARBONIZED FUELS

  • Synthetic fuel from coal or natural gas, with carbon capture and storage
  • Biofuels
  • Hydrogen
    • from coal and natural gas, with carbon capture and storage
    • from nuclear energy
    • from renewable energy (hydro, wind, PV, etc.)

FUEL DISPLACEMENT BY LOW-CARBON ELECTRICITY

  • Grid-charged batteries for transport
  • Heat pumps for furnaces and boilers

NATURAL SINKS

  • Forestry (reduced deforestation, afforestation, new plantations)
  • Agricultural soils

OP,APP,CP

OP,APP,CP

OP,APP,CP

OP,APP,CP

CP

slide45

Three Interdependent Problems

  • The Oil Problem (OP)
  • ~ $600 billion /yr for Iraq,
  • >$100 billion /yr for oil price shocks
  • (how much for vet care?)
  • The Air Pollution Problem (APP)
  • >$100 billion /yr for air pollution
  • The Climate Problem (CP)
  • ~ $100 billion/yr to solve the problem
slide46

Conclusions

What is needed is a national policy designed to solve the oil problem, the air pollution problem, and the climate problem.

We already possess cost-effective technologies for the next fifty years, if costs are seen in the context of what we are already paying.

The solution will only get cheaper, as investment elicits industrial R&D and new innovation.

wind power available soon enough
Wind power – available soon enough?

Current windpower capacity ~ 40 GWpeak

If we need 2000 GWpeak for one wedge, then the scale-up factor is 50 = W(t)/W0

Growth in windpower k = 30% per year - is this fast enough?

wind power available soon enough1
Wind power – available soon enough?

Current windpower capacity ~ 40 GWpeak

If we need 2000 GWpeak for one wedge, then the scale-up factor is 50.

Growth in windpower k = 30% per year - is this fast enough?

good nukes bad nukes
Good Nukes – Bad Nukes?

Nuclear waste vitrification (fission)

http://www-ssrl.slac.stanford.edu/research/highlights_archive/technetium.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vitrification

slide58

What about FUSION?

Hydrogen

Isotopes of Hydrogen

http://encarta.msn.com/media_461531710_761575299_-1_1/Hydrogen_Isotopes.html

slide59

Deuterium fusion: E=mc2

Fusion: D + D → T + H

Mass balance: 2*2.014102 u→ 3.016049 u + 1.007825 u

Dm = ________________ u = atomic mass units

Dm = __________ u * 1.66 x 10-27 kg/u = ___________ kg

E = Dm c2 where c=3 x 108 m/s

E = _________________ J

How much D fusion energy is possible from 1 kg of water?

Giancoli Ex.43-7 p.1097

slide60

Deuterium fusion: E=mc2

Fusion: D + D → T + H

Mass balance: 2*2.014102 u→ 3.016049 u + 1.007825 u

Dm = 4.02820 u - 4.02387 u = 0.00433 u

Dm = 0.00433 u * 1.66 x 10-27 kg/u = 7.18 x 10-30 kg

E = Dm c2 where c=3 x 108 m/s

E = 6.46 x 10-13 J

How much D fusion energy is possible from 1 kg of water?

Giancoli Ex.43-7 p.1097

slide61

Fusion vs. combustion

How much D fusion energy is possible from 1 kg of water?

0.015% of the H in water is D. The number of D nuclei in 1 kg water is

We found that 2D release 6.45 x 10-13 J of energy, so N release

Compare this to the energy from burning 1 kg of gasoline: Egas ~ 5 x 107 J. A hundred times more energy from water.

Giancoli Prob.43-37 p.1112

research project guidelines
Research project guidelines

Cover sheet:  title, teammates, class, date, and (one line each) each solution option in your package, including how much CO2 it will “remove.” 

Contents: Your team’s motivation and how you chose your solution package, why you chose not to include other options.  For each solution option, key strengths and weaknesses, realistic evaluation of its near-term availability, costs and consequences, and a quantitative analysis of how much CO2 it will “remove.” Approximately 10 pages plus AnnotatedBibliography.  Shorter is fine:  make every word count, and say everything you need to say - clearly and concisely.

Cite all sources for all information right where you mention the information.  Include a list of all references at the end.

Credit all sources, including classmates, librarians, and other people who may have helped you.

slide72

research projects …

  • Goals for your doing research projects include:
  • Become local experts on methods to reduce CO2 using current technology
  • Quantitatively estimate the potential contribution of these methods to stabilize CO2 levels
  • Understanding how the methods you investigate satisfy Pacala and Socolow’s stabilization criteria.
  • Add additional wedges if necessary.
  • Discuss your criteria (values) for selecting from the various options.Suggested format (with suggested page lengths for each section):
  • Abstract-Summary of conclusions (0.25 page)
  • Brief Introduction, with overview of the problem and choice of methods investigated (.75 page)
  • Technical Summary of each method (2-4 pages)
  • Quantitative estimates of contributions of each method to C reduction
  • Assumptions, computations, critique (2-4 pages)
  • Discussion of how your solution package meets Pacala and Socolow’s stabilization criteria (1-2 pages).
design your own global warming solution package
Design your own global warming solution package:

http://www.princeton.edu/~cmi/resources/stabwedge.htm

http://www.princeton.edu/~cmi/resources/CMI_Resources_new_files/CMI_Wedge_Game_Jan_2007.pdf

revised game approaches suggested by chautauqua participants
Revised game approachessuggested by Chautauqua participants
  • Discuss and consider revising rules before play
  • Permit partial wedges? Half a solar wedge?
  • Require addition of a minimum amount of new power?
  • Require inclusion of all four colors of solutions?
  • Other options?

http://www.princeton.edu/~cmi/resources/stabwedge.htm

http://www.princeton.edu/~cmi/resources/CMI_Resources_new_files/CMI_Wedge_Game_Jan_2007.pdf