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U.S. Navy Task Force Climate Change

U.S. Navy Task Force Climate Change. Robert Winokur Oceanographer of the Navy (Acting) March 2012. UNCLASSIFIED. The Ocean is Storing Most of the Heat. Arctic Sea Ice Continues to Melt & Thin. Climate Change. Total Earth Heat Content from 1950 (Murphy 2009). Ocean data

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U.S. Navy Task Force Climate Change

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  1. U.S. NavyTask Force Climate Change Robert Winokur Oceanographer of the Navy (Acting) March 2012 UNCLASSIFIED

  2. The Ocean is Storing Most of the Heat Arctic Sea Ice Continues to Melt & Thin Climate Change Total Earth Heat Content from 1950 (Murphy 2009). Ocean data taken from Domingues et al 2008 Arctic Warming is 2 x the Rest of the World Mean surface temperature 2001-2007 relative to baseline period 1951-1980, from:The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009 UNCLASSIFIED

  3. U.S. Navy Task Force Climate Change Inform Policy & Resource Decisions Assessment Science & Network Monitor Conditions Roadmaps Update Roadmaps Science-based approach, cooperative partnerships, risk assessments

  4. Navy Climate Change Concerns • Near-term • Increasing Arctic maritime activity • Partnership opportunities • Energy security initiatives • Mid-Term • Sea level rise impact on installations • Water/resource challenges • Potential increase in Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Response • Wild-cards • Ocean acidification • Abrupt climate change • Geoengineering

  5. Navy Arctic Strategic Objectives • II. Safeguard U.S. maritime • interests in the region • III. Protect the American people, • our critical infrastructure, • & key resources • I. Contribute to safety, • stability, & security • in the region • IV. Strengthen existing & • foster new cooperative • relationships in the region Signed by CNO on 21 May 2010 V. Ensure Navy forces are capable and ready Towards the desired end state: a safe, stable, and secure Arctic 5 Distribution A: Approved for Public Release; Distribution is Unlimited; Unclassified

  6. Navy Installation Vulnerability Enabled & informed by sound science Physical Impacts • Inundation • Wetlands • Erosion patterns & rates • Surface/ground water supplies • Water tables • Tidal flows & currents • Storm & flood damage Naval Station Norfolk Camp Pendleton Naval Base Coronado Camp Lejeune Eglin Air Force Base • Navy Study • Identify most vulnerable installations • Local and regional infrastructure • Prioritize spending • Maintain mission readiness 6 UNCLASSIFIED 6

  7. Naval Studies Board Recommendations Support ratification of UNCLOS Address naval coastal installation vulnerabilities Prepare for increase in HA/DR, Arctic missions Address emerging technical requirements (e.g. polar ops) Support research & development Address partnership demands Navy action is already underway UNCLASSIFIED

  8. It’s all about water The Atlantic 2011 8

  9. Partnerships National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) • Air Force, Navy, NOAA partnership • A managed National multi-model ensemble prediction system. • A common modeling framework linking operations and research. Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) • ESPC is a coherent, national effort to extend atmospheric, oceanic and Arctic predictions from days to months, years • and decades to meet current and future Naval warfighting • and force readiness requirements. Critical Dependence on Space Observations

  10. Accomplishments & Developments Naval Studies Board study Recent Accomplishments:(Feb 2011 – Jan 2012) OSD-Policy Arctic Report to Congress OSD-Policy Arctic Report to Congress ICEX 2011 & Science Ice Exercise Plan Navy Arctic Studies - Mission Analysis - Arctic CBA - Arctic Env CBA* Thule AB Resupply Support for UNCLOS Accession Naval War College - Fleet Arctic Ops Game Interagency partnership for air-ocean-ice numerical prediction NASA IceBridge Key Upcoming Events: USNA Interns & Curriculum Development NASA CASI Workshop Arctic CHOD Conference USN-USCG Staff Talks Leadership visits & staff talks Arctic Security Roundtable 2012 Asia Pacific Military Medical Conference 2012 Marine Corps University Journal Arctic Collaborative Workshop Conferences Improve understanding Ensure readiness (resilience) 10

  11. Facebook.com/NavyTFCC greenfleet.dodlive.mil/climate-change/

  12. BACK-UP

  13. The Team… NATIONAL INTERNATIONAL INTERAGENCY DOD SCIENTIFIC, ACADEMIC, & ANALYTICAL Engaged nearly 600 individuals from over 175 organizations

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