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Co-benefits of Global Greenhouse Gas Mitigation for US Air Quality and Health

Co-benefits of Global Greenhouse Gas Mitigation for US Air Quality and Health. J. Jason West Department of Environmental Sciences & Engineering University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. Impact of RCP8.5 Climate Change on Global Air Pollution Mortality: ACCMIP Models. OZONE. PM 2.5.

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Co-benefits of Global Greenhouse Gas Mitigation for US Air Quality and Health

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  1. Co-benefits of Global Greenhouse Gas Mitigation for US Air Quality and Health J. Jason West Department of Environmental Sciences & Engineering University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill

  2. Impact of RCP8.5 Climate Change on Global Air Pollution Mortality: ACCMIP Models OZONE PM2.5 Million deaths yr-1 Million deaths yr-1 See Raquel Silva poster

  3. Ozone from N. American and European emissions causes more deaths outside of those regions than within Avoided deaths (hundreds) from 20% regional ozone precursor reductions, based on HTAP simulations, Anenberg et al. (EST, 2009) See CiaoKai Liang poster for preliminary HTAP2 results

  4. Sources & Policies Air pollutants Human Health Air pollution Climate Change GHGs Co-benefits of GHG Mitigation for Air Quality 1) Immediate and Local 2) Long-Term and Global Objective: Analyze global co-benefits for air quality and human health to 2100 via both mechanisms.

  5. Approach • Use the GCAM reference for emissions rather than RCP8.5, for consistency with RCP4.5. • Simulations conducted in MOZART-4. - 2° x 2.5° horizontal resolution. - 5 meteorology years for each case. - Fixed methane concentrations. - Compares well with ACCMIP RCP4.5.

  6. Co-benefits – Global Premature Mortality Projection of global population and baseline mortality rates from International Futures. PM2.5 co-benefits (CPD + lung cancer mortality) 2030: 0.4±0.2 million yr-1 2050: 1.1±0.5 2100: 1.5±0.6 Ozone co-benefits (respiratory mortality) 2030: 0.09±0.06 2050: 0.2±0.1 2100: 0.7±0.5 West et al. NCC 2013

  7. Co-benefits – Valuation of Avoided Mortality Red: High valuation (2030 global mean $3.6 million) Blue: Low valuation (2030 global mean $1.2 million) Green: Median and range of global C price (13 models) West et al. NCC 2013

  8. Downscaling Co-benefits to USA (2050) RCP4.5 - REF PM2.5 (annual avg.) US mean = 0.47 µg/m3 Ozone (May-Oct MDA8) US mean = 3.55 ppbv (a) (b) Zhang et al. in prep

  9. Downscaling Co-benefits to USA (2050) PM2.5 Ozone 0.35 µg/m3 0.86 ppb Most PM2.5 co-benefits from domestic reductions. Domestic 2.69 ppb Foreign 0.12 µg/m3 Most ozone co-benefits from foreignandmethanereductions. Zhang et al. in prep

  10. Domestic vs. Foreign Co-benefits: PM2.5 Domestic (20800 deaths/yr) Foreign (4600 deaths/yr) • Domestic GHG mitigation accounts for 85% of the total avoided PM2.5 mortality. Zhang et al. in prep

  11. Domestic vs. Foreign Co-benefits: O3 Domestic (4600 deaths/yr) Foreign (7600 deaths/yr) • Foreign countries’ GHG mitigation accounts for 62% of the total avoided deaths of O3. See Yuqiang Zhang poster for downscaling co-benefits

  12. US Co-benefits in 2050 Avoided premature deaths from GHG mitigation: 24500 (CI: 17800-31100) from PM2.5, and 12200 (CI: 5400-18900) from O3. Avoided heat stress mortality from RCP4.5 relative to RCP8.5: 2340 (CI: 1370-3320) (Ying Li). Monetized co-benefits in 2050 are $74 (46-101) per ton CO2 reduced at low VSL, $220 (140-304) at high VSL. Foreign GHG mitigation accounts for 62% of the total avoided deaths from O3, and 15% for PM2.5. Previous regional or national co‐benefits studies may underestimatethe full co‐benefits of coordinated global actions. U.S. can gain significantly greater co‐benefits, especially for ozone, by collaborating with other countries to combat climate change. Zhang et al. in preparation

  13. Thank you Contributions from: Students/Postdocs: Yuqiang Zhang, Raquel Silva, CiaoKai Liang, Yasuyuki Akita, Zac Adelman, Meridith Fry,Susan Anenberg Collaborators: Steve Smith, VaishaliNaik, Larry Horowitz, Drew Shindell, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Jared Bowden, Ying Li, ACCMIP modelers Funding Sources: EPA STAR Grant #834285 NIEHS Grant #1 R21 ES022600-01 EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards Portugal Foundation for Science and Technology Fellowship EPA STAR Fellowship UNC Dissertation Completion Fellowship US Department of Energy, Office of Science NOAA GFDL for computing resources 834285 UNC Climate Health and Air Quality Lab www.unc.edu/~jjwest

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