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April 2008 PowerPoint Presentation

April 2008

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April 2008

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  1. TURKEY BEYOND 2008 Mehmet ŞİMŞEK Minister of Economy April 2008

  2. TURKEY 2

  3. Turkey: An Overview Demographic Profile Source: UN

  4. Turkey: An Overview Europe’s Biggest Economies (PPP GDP, Trillion $, 2007) Source: IMF

  5. Turkey: An Overview Per Capita GDP (USD) (*) For the years before 2007 old population numbers are used. Source: TURKSTAT

  6. Budget Balance (% of GDP) Source: Ministry of Finance

  7. Public Sector Primary Balance (IMF Definition, % of GDP) 2003-2006 Average: 5.1 Source: Treasury

  8. Privatization Implementations (Billion USD)* (*) Includes asset sales by the SDIF and Ministry of Transportation Source: Privatization Agency, SDIF

  9. Public Sector Borrowing Requirement (% of GDP) Source: State Planning Organization

  10. Public Sector Net Debt Stock (% of GDP) Source: Treasury

  11. Gross Public Debt Stock (EU Definition, % of GDP) EU-27 average Source: Treasury

  12. Interest Service / Tax Revenues (%) Source: Ministry of Finance

  13. Public Sector Net Debt Stock (Billion YTL) Source: Treasury

  14. Turkey’s NetExternal Debt (% of GDP) Source: Treasury

  15. CurrencyComposition of Gross Public Debt Stock (%) Source: Treasury

  16. Interest Structure of Gross Public Sector Debt Stock (%) Source: Treasury

  17. Sensitivity of Gross Public Debt to GDP to Shocks Source: Treasury

  18. Banking Sector:FX Position (Million USD) Source: BRSA

  19. Banking Sector: Capital Adequacy Ratio (%) Source: BRSA

  20. Banking Sector: Loans to Assets (%) Source: BRSA

  21. Banking Sector: Asset Quality Source: BRSA

  22. Banking Sector: Free Capital*/Equity (%) Source: BRSA (*) Free Capital = Total Equity – (Fixed Assets + Affiliates, Subsidiaries and Joint Ventures)

  23. Banking Sector: Return on Equity (%) Source: BRSA

  24. Central Bank’s Gross FX Reserves (Billion USD) Source: Central Bank of Turkey

  25. FDI Inflows (Billion USD) Source: Central Bank of Turkey

  26. Change in Competitiveness Positive Negative Source: WEF Global Competitiveness Report, 2006-2007 cumulative

  27. Competitiveness and Entrenched Improvement in Investment Environment Source: UNCTAD, World Bank Doing Business Report

  28. GDPGrowth Rate (Annual average, %) Source: TURKSTAT, Treasury

  29. Volatility of Growth(coefficient of variation of the real growth rates, %) Source: TURKSTAT, Treasury

  30. Average Inflation (%) * Year-on-year change in the CPI as of end-March 2008. Source: TURKSTAT

  31. Unemployment Rate (%) Source: TURKSTAT

  32. Distribution of Employment by Economic Activity (%) 2002 2007 Source: TURKSTAT

  33. Distribution of Employment byEmployment Status (%) 2002 2007 Source: TURKSTAT

  34. Inflation – Recent Developments Annual CPI Inflation and Target Path (December 2005 – December 2008, yoy, percent) Source: TURKSTAT, Central Bank of Turkey

  35. Inflation – Main Causes Contribution to End-year CPI Inflation (percentage share) 2004-2006 Average 2007 Others Food* Others 49.4 % 23.9 % Food* 30.1 % 40.8 % Others 49.5 % Tobacco** Energy 10.4 % 18.7 % Energy 17.0 % Tobacco** 9.7 % * Food: Food and non-alcoholic beverages ** Tobacco: Tobacco products and alcoholic beverages Source: TURKSTAT, Central Bank of Turkey

  36. Inflation – Subcomponents Subcomponents of CPI (Annual Percentage Change) * Food: Food and non-alcoholic beverages ** Tobacco: Tobacco products and alcoholic beverages Source: TURKSTAT, Central Bank of Turkey

  37. Inflation – Relative Success Difference Between Turkey and Other Emerging IT’ers Inflation Rates Start of the Easing Cycle Monetary Tightening *Sample of emerging economies under inflation targeting covers Brazil, Czech Republic, Colombia, Philippines, South Africa, Israel, Hungary, Mexico, Peru, Poland, Romania, Chile, Slovakia and Thailand. Source: Web sites of central banks

  38. Monetary Policy and Core Indicators Response of Inflation to the Monetary Tightening Source: CBT

  39. Expectations Improving Slowly Medium Term Inflation Expectations 12-Months forward 24-Months forward Source: CBT

  40. Current Account Balance (% of GDP) excluding energy price impact* (*) The effect of energy price increases on the current account in the 2003-2007 period was calculated by keeping the prices of 2002 intact. Source: CBT

  41. Machinery Imports(Billion USD) Source: TURKSTAT

  42. Export Performance(Average Annual Growth Rate, 2001-2007) Source: TURKSTAT, IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2008.

  43. Financing of Current Account Deficit (As a percentage of Current Account) Source:CBT

  44. Exports (Billion USD) Source: TURKSTAT

  45. Export & Import Growth (Annualized Percentage Change over the Previous Year) Source: TURKSTAT

  46. Key Elements of Structural Reform Agenda • Public Sector Administrative Reforms • Financial Sector Reforms • Structural Fiscal Reforms - Social Security Reform - Tax Reform • Enhancing Private Sector’s Role in the Economy

  47. I. Public Sector Administrative Reforms • Financial Management and Control Law • Public Procurement Law • Rationalizing Public Sector Employment • Rationalizing Public Sector Budget & Investment • Code of Ethical Conduct for Civil Servants • Law on Freedom of Information for Citizens

  48. II. Financial Sector Reforms • a.Regulation and Supervision in line with the EU Standards • New Banking Law in line with EU Standards • Continuation of Secondary Legislation related with the Banking Law • Progress on Implementing Regulations • Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) • Preparation for BASEL II • b. Strengthening the Private Banks • CAR-Capital Adequacy Ratio- Improvement • Consolidation Encouraged • Increased Foreign Participation • c. State Bank Reform • Financial and Operational Restructuring • Privatization process for Halkbank has been initated • d. Development of Mortgage Market • Mortgage Law enacted in February, 2007 • Secondary Legislation on Mortgage Law has been initiated

  49. III. Structural Fiscal Reforms Social Security Reform • Social Security Administrative Reform Law (May, 2006) • Pension and Universal Health InsuranceReform Law Tax Reform • PIT Reform • Rate Reform (April, 2006) • Structure Reform (March, 2007) • CIT Law (June, 2006) • Establishment of a Semi Autonomous Revenue Administration (R. A.) • Establishment of a Large-Taxpayers Unit under R. A. • Establishment of Tax Policy Unit

  50. IV. Enhancing the Role of the Private Sector Key Elements: a. Opening the Key Markets to Competition and Regulation by Independent Agencies b. Improving the Investment Environment c. Accelerating Privatization