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October 26, 2010

What has changed since 1976 in US Nuclear Power Plant Safety?. October 26, 2010 Presentation before the California Senate Committee on Energy, Utilities, and Communications, Hearing on “Nuclear Power and California’s Clean Energy Future” Robert J. Budnitz Earth Sciences Division

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October 26, 2010

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  1. What has changed since 1976 in US Nuclear Power Plant Safety? October 26, 2010 Presentation before the California Senate Committee on Energy, Utilities, and Communications, Hearing on “Nuclear Power and California’s Clean Energy Future” Robert J. Budnitz Earth Sciences Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory University of California Berkeley CA 94720

  2. 104 U.S. nuclear power plants

  3. SignificantEvents at U.S. Nuclear Plants: Annual Industry Average,Fiscal Year 1988-2006 • Significant Events are those events that the NRC staff identifies for the • Performance Indicator Program as meeting one or more of the following criteria: • A Yellow or Red Reactor Oversight Process (ROP) finding or performance indicator • An event with a Conditional Core Damage Probability (CCDP) or increase in core damage probability (ΔCDP) of 1x10-5 or higher • An Abnormal Occurrence as defined by Management Directive 8.1, “Abnormal Occurrence Reporting Procedure” • An event rated two or higher on the International Nuclear Event Scale Source: NRC Information Digest, 1988 is the earliest year data is available. Updated: 11/07

  4. Budnitz note:in 2006, the figure was 0.32 per plantin 1985 it was 4.2in 1980 it was 7.3

  5. U.S. Nuclear Refueling Outage Days Average Source: 1990-98 EUCG, 1999-2007 Energy Velocity / Nuclear Regulatory Commission Updated: 2/08

  6. U.S. Nuclear Industry Capacity Factors1971 - 2007 * Preliminary Source: Global Energy Decisions / Energy Information Administration Updated: 4/08

  7. U.S. Electricity Production Costs 1995-2007, In 2007 cents per kilowatt-hour Production Costs = Operations and Maintenance Costs + Fuel Costs Source: Global Energy Decisions Updated: 5/08

  8. Deep Geological Repositories • 1976: Scientists asserted that deep repositories would be safe, but nobody knew for sure. [Lots of judgment, but no demonstrated solution.] • 2010: We now know, for sure, that the Yucca Mt. repository in Nevada, if it went forward, would be able to dispose of the spent nuclear fuel well within NRC limits for 1,000,000 years.

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