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Les politiques environnementales et énergétiques aux États-Unis : défis et paradoxes. Pierre-Olivier Pineau Professeur titulaire, HEC Montréal CÉRIUM École d’été 2013 Les États-Unis dans un tourbillon de crises : déclin ou adaptation ? 3744 Jean-Brillant salle 580-32

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les politiques environnementales et nerg tiques aux tats unis d fis et paradoxes

Les politiques environnementales et énergétiques aux États-Unis : défis et paradoxes

Pierre-Olivier Pineau

Professeur titulaire, HEC Montréal

CÉRIUM École d’été 2013

Les États-Unis dans un tourbillon de crises : déclin ou adaptation ?

3744 Jean-Brillant salle 580-32

Mercredi 10 juillet 2013 – 13h30 - 16h30

p trole et gaz naturel aux tats unis 1973 2012 importations p trole 2012
Pétrole et gaz naturel aux États-Unis1973-2012 (+importations pétrole 2012)

Millions de p3

2,9 mb/j

1,3 mb/j

Pierre-Olivier Pineau

EIA (2013)

consommation d nergie aux u 2011
Consommation d’énergie aux É-U (2011)

Pierre-Olivier Pineau

EIA (2013)

plan de la pr sentation
Plan de la présentation
  • Pétrole et gaz naturel aux États-Unis
  • Défis des changements climatiques
  • Politiques environnementales

Pierre-Olivier Pineau

auto suffisance nerg tique
Auto-suffisance énergétique

IEA (2012)

Pierre-Olivier Pineau

sources anticip es de r duction des importations de p trole aux u
Sources anticipées de réduction des importations de pétrole aux É-U

IEA (2012)

Pierre-Olivier Pineau

types de p trole
Types de pétrole

«Pétrolede réservoirsétanches»

(Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage)

In-situ/Mining

«Schiste bitumineux»

Source: Canadian Society for Unconventional Resources Understanding Tight Oil

oil shale schiste bitumineux
Oil Shale / Schistebitumineux

Oil shale (also known as kerogenshale)

… can be processed to obtain shale oil

More than 3,500 billion barrels of oil shale resources originally in place throughout the world (≈120 years of current consumption)

Wikipedia & WEO (2010:168)

unconventional oil tight oil
UnconventionalOil: TightOil
  • “U.S. doubles oil estimate for Bakkenfield”, CBC News (May 2, 2013) http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2013/05/02/business-bakken-oil.html
  • United States Geological Survey:
    • 3.6 bb of oil , technically recoverable (2008)
    • 7.4 billion barrels of oil (2013) (20 years of production at 1 million b/d)
    • Since 2008, more than 4,000 wells drilled
    • 6.7 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered, technically recoverable natural gas
slide12

Tight oil & Gulf of Mexico deepwater drive projected increases in U.S. crude oil production

US EIA (2012)

bakken export capacity
Bakken Export Capacity

Rail is about 3 times more expansive / barrel

US EIA (2013)

western canada select wcs versus wti maya
Western Canada Select (WCS) versus WTI & Maya

$43 discount compared to Maya (a Mexican

benchmark for heavy crude oil)

Alberta (2013)

keystone pipeline system
Keystone pipeline system
  • 1,179-mile (1,897 km)
  • 36-inch-diameter
  • 830,000 b/d
  • ≈$10/barrel vs. $30 for rail

TransCanada (2013)

capacit de transport versus production projet e de p trole
Capacité de transport versus production projetée de pétrole

CAPP (2013)

Pierre-Olivier Pineau

us production of shale gas 2000 2013
US production of Shale Gas(2000-2013)

Billion cubicfeet per day

Pineau / HEC Montréal

EIA (2013)

growth in total us gas production
Growth in total US gas production

Trillion cubicfeet (per year)

Pineau / HEC Montréal

EIA (2013)

average shale gas well production rate
Average Shale Gas Well Production Rate

Pineau / HEC Montréal

EIA (2013)

slide23

EPA (2013)

Pierre-Olivier Pineau

missions de ges aux u en 2011
Émissions de GES aux É-U en 2011

Protoxyde d’azote

Oxydenitreux

Gaz fluorés

Émissionstotales en 2011

6,702 Millions de tonnes de CO2-equivalent

Pierre-Olivier Pineau

sources d mission de co 2 ch 4 et n 2 o
Sources d’émission de CO2, CH4 et N2O

CH4

CO2

N2O

Pierre-Olivier Pineau

slide26

Émissions de GES par gaz aux É-U

1990-2011

Million

EPA (2013)

Pierre-Olivier Pineau

the role of various substances in the hydraulic fracturing process
The role of various substances in the hydraulic fracturing process

Friction reducers—Minimize friction in the well.

Biocides—Eliminate bacteria that produce corrosive by-products.

Solvents—Extract impurities from natural gas and are used for clearing and de-icing.

Surfactants—Increase the viscosity of the fracturing fluid.

Scale inhibitors—Prevent deposits from forming in the well and surface equipment.

Acids—Dissolve minerals and initiate cracks in the rock formation.

AGC (2012)

methane emissions along the gas value chain
Methane emissions along the gas value chain
  • Intentional venting of gas for safety or economic reasons. Venting during well completions falls into this category, but venting can also take place as part of equipment maintenance operations.
  • Fugitive emissions. These might be leaks in pipelines, valves or seals, whether accidental (e.g. corrosion in pipelines) or built into the equipment design (e.g. rotating seals, open tanks).
  • Incidents involving rupture of confining equipment (pipelines, pressurised tanks, well isolation).
  • Incomplete burning. The effectiveness of gas burning in gas flares varies according to wind and other conditions and is typically no better than 98%.

IEA (2012)

golden rules 1
Golden Rules 1
  • Measure, disclose and engage
    • Engage with local communities, residents and other stakeholders into each phase of a development
    • Establish baselines for key environmental indicators
    • Measure and disclose operational data on water use on methane and other air emissions.
    • Minimise disruption during operations, taking a broad view of social and

IEA (2012)

golden rules 2
Golden Rules 2
  • Watch where you drill
    • Choose well sites so as to minimise impacts
    • Properly survey the geology of the area
    • Monitor to ensure that hydraulic fractures do not extend beyond the gas producing formations.
  • Isolate wells and prevent leaks
    • Put in place robust rules on well design, construction, cementing and integrity testing.
    • Consider appropriate minimum-depth limitations
    • Take action to prevent and contain surface spills and leaks from wells, and to ensure that any waste fluids and solids are disposed of properly.

IEA (2012)

golden rules 3
Golden Rules 3
  • Treat water responsibly
    • Reduce freshwater use by improving operational efficiency; reuse or recycle
    • Store and dispose of produced and waste water safely.
    • Minimise use of chemical additives
  • Eliminate venting, minimise flaring and other emissions
    • Target zero venting and minimal flaring of natural gas during well completion and seek to reduce fugitive and vented GHG emissions during
    • Minimise air pollution from vehicles, drilling rig engines, pump engines and compressors.

IEA (2012)

golden rules 4
Golden Rules 4
  • Be ready to think big
    • Seek opportunities for realising the economies of scale and co-ordinated development
    • Take into account the cumulative and regional effects of multiple drilling and production
  • Ensure a consistently high level of env. performance
    • Back output by sufficient permitting and compliance staff, and reliable public information.
    • Appropriate balance in policy-making between prescriptive regulation and performance-based regulation
    • Robust emergency response plans.
    • Continuous improvement of practices.
    • Independent evaluation and verification of env. perf.

IEA (2012)

consommation de p trole mondiale million b j 2000 2012
Consommation de pétrolemondialeMillion b/j (2000-2012)

2000-2011

+14.1%

-13.3%

+13.7%

-3.8%

-23.7%

US EIA (2013)

energy independence and security act of 2007
Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007
  • Normes de consommation de carburant des véhicules
  • Biocarburant
  • Efficacité énergétique
    • Équipements électriques & ampoules
    • Bâtiment

Pierre-Olivier Pineau

waxman markey bill american clean energy and security act of 2009
Waxman-Markey Bill (American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009)
  • Système de plafonnement et d’échange de droits d’émissions (similaire au EU ETS)
  • Approuvée par la Chambre des représentants (26 juin 2009, 219-212) maisrejetéeau Sénat
  • Réduction de 17% des GES en 2020, par rapport à 2005 (et -42% en 2030)

… engagement faits à Copenhague en 2009 au sommet sur le climat

Pierre-Olivier Pineau

le plan d action de obama sur les changements climatiques juin 2013
Le plan d’action de Obama sur les changements climatiques (juin 2013)
  • Réductions des émissions des centrales aux charbon (EPA – états)
  • Accéler le développement des «énergies propres»
  • Normes de consommation de carburant des véhicules + biocarburants
  • Efficacité énergétique

Pierre-Olivier Pineau

r f rences
Références
  • CAPP (2013) Crude Oil - Forecast, Markets & Transportation, Calgary: Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.

Pierre-Olivier Pineau