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Off-Campus Enrollment: Growing Strategic Importance

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  1. Off-Campus Enrollment: Growing Strategic Importance Anne C. Kaplan, Ph.D. November 19, 2009 1

  2. Off-Campus Enrollment Credit Hour Statistics  Total • FY99 26,224 • FY00 26,597 • FY01 30,908 • FY02 33,429 • FY03 37,759 • FY04 41,126 • FY05 42,282 • FY06 41,174 • FY07 38,802 • FY08 40,050 • FY09 38,148 GR vs. Contract • FY99 22,582 vs. 3,642 • FY00 22,766 vs. 3,831 • FY01 27,049 vs. 3,859 • FY02 30,875 vs. 3,131 • FY03 34,171 vs. 3,588 • FY04 33,224 vs. 7,902 • FY05 32,571 vs. 9,711 • FY06 31,980 vs. 9,195 • FY07 30,528 vs. 8,274 • FY08 30,547 vs. 9,503 • FY09 28,990 vs. 9,158 2

  3. Snap-Shot of Off –Campus Enrollment • Not a major “line of business” for NIU today. • Only 7 percent of total credit hours • 85 percent are part-time graduate students • College of Business • College of Education • Largely managed with a minimum of infrastructure – complex set of informal agreements, mostly managed by Outreach 3 3

  4. Estimated Net Revenue Analysis FY2008 Off-Campus Credit Enrollment Total Revenue $14,054,000 Total Expenses $ 6,832,000 Estimated Net $ 7,222,000 Expenses include: faculty stipends, on-load instruction, travel, facility rental, technology infrastructure, online course development, Outreach staff, data management, center operation and debt service 4 4

  5. Growing Strategic Importance Several Factors Are Increasing the Strategic Importance of Off-Campus Enrollment for NIU • Internal Factors • External Factors 5 5

  6. Growing Strategic Importance Internal Factors: • Need for more net revenue: • Maximizing on-campus capacity covers fixed costs, but yields little net revenue. • Current on-campus capacity serves only 3 percent of regional market. Expanding on-campus capacity not viable. • Off-campus is already a reliable source of significant net revenues. 6 6

  7. Growing Strategic Importance Internal Factors: 2. Manage the consequence of successful efforts to raise “native” retention: • Large-scale inflow of degree-completion students from community colleges in Junior and Senior years offsets losses suffered today by low retention among “native” Freshman and Sophomores. • Aggressive efforts to improve retention are expected to produce positive results. • Retaining more “native” students will not reduce the flow of transfers, thus creating substantial cohort growth in Junior and Senior years (when specialized courses are most in demand). • On-campus capacity is too expensive to expand to meet this consequence – potential of 2000+ enrollment growth. 7 7

  8. Growing Strategic Importance External Factors: • Respond flexibly to the potential for growing demand for less expensive public 4-year degrees: • Economic crisis is changing the long-term ability of many families to afford private 4-year higher education. • Since NIU’s “regional market share” is low (about 3 percent among 18-24 year old traditional students), even a one percent market shift in demand toward NIU could result in enrollment growth of one third. • On-campus capacity is too expensive, and not flexible enough, to meet potential demand fluctuations. Off-campus capacity can be expanded and contracted more easily as demands shift. 8 8

  9. Comparative Distribution Within the Region: Locations of 15-17 Year Olds vs. Origins of NIU Students

  10. Growing Strategic Importance External Factors: • Respond to expectations from the public for more degree-completion transfer students from community colleges. • 52 percent of community college students are 25 or older. • In our region, 39 percent of 270K AA/AS students wish to pursue a bachelor’s degree. • In our region, 27 percent of 186K AAS students wish to pursue a bachelor’s degree. • More than 36 percent of all jobs to be created in our region in next 20 years will require at least a bachelor’s degree. • Continued state support for public 4-year universities will rest in part on our ability to respond to these expectations. Others will if we do not. • Growing off-campus capacity will play a crucial role. 10 10

  11. Increase in Adult Learners 11 11

  12. Growing Strategic Importance External Factors: 3. Our region already has a very large market for adult higher education. NIU already performs well, even without a strategic intent. Within areas already served today by an NIU campus • 58.5K adults age 25 to 34, and • 56.1K adults age 35+ are already enrolled in some type of higher education. Without targeting this group, we already enroll 7,181, or about 6 percent. Labor market data reveal that the best strategy for upward income mobility for adults in our global region is to obtain at least a 4-year degree. 12 12

  13. Role of Community Colleges “Community colleges are the backbone of the public workforce system, and that training must be directly aligned to local businesses. It’s incumbent upon colleges to talk with their local employers, not only about the jobs of today, but the jobs they’ll need next year and five years down the road.” Jane Oates, Assistant Secretary, U.S. Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration Keynote address to Chicago-area business leaders, Harper College Engagement Week, 11/09/2009 13

  14. NIU Has Partners “We must leverage scarce public dollars by assuring access to these important credentials by forming successful partnerships with our regional universities. Our recent announcement with Northern Illinois University on offering a bachelor’s degree program in public safety management on our campus is only a start. There will be many, many more.” Kenneth Ender, President, William Rainey Harper College, 11/12/2009 14

  15. Bachelor’s Degrees & Community Colleges “On our campus, we must work with our university partners to assure a continuous pathway of educational credentials that support career progression and success. The question is not whether or not bachelor’s degrees will be on our campus; the only question is who will provide it. “ • Kenneth Ender, President, William Rainey Harper College, 11/12/2009

  16. Northern Illinois Community Colleges 16 16

  17. Off-campus Baccalaureate Completion Pathways Traditional 2 + 2 Pathways 3 + 1 Pathways for AAS degrees Health & Human Sciences BGS Industrial Management & Technology Nursing (RN to BS in Nursing) • Elementary Education (Rockford) • Business Administration (Rockford) • Liberal Arts & Sciences BGS 17

  18. Baccalaureate Pathway Partnerships * Most Nursing, Health & Human Science, and Liberal Arts & Science courses are available online to serve the entire region. 18 18

  19. BaccalaureatePathway Enrollments 19 19

  20. Off-Campus Undergraduate Head Count Enrollment (Fall 2000 – Fall 2009) 20 20

  21. Students in NIU Courses Outside of Home Community College District 21 21

  22. Selection of NIU: Importance of NIU Students Attending Top Graduate Schools 22 22

  23. 70 67.0 65 62.3 60 60.3 60.2 58.4 58.8 56.4 57.5 Percent 56.7 55 56.4 56.4 53.7 52.6 50 49.6 46.5 45.2 45 44.3 43.5 40 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 NIU National Public Universities Selection of NIU: Importance of Good Academic Reputation 23 23

  24. 35 31.3 30 28.4 28.1 26.5 25.8 25.8 24.9 24.7 24.6 25 Percent 20 16.1 15.7 15.4 15.0 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.1 15 14.0 10 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 NIU National Public Universities Selection of NIU:Importance of Attending College Near Home 24 24

  25. Comparative Distribution Within the Region: Locations of 15-17 Year Olds vs. Origins of NIU Students

  26. Northern Illinois Community Colleges 26 26

  27. NIU Students: 95% from the Region • 95 percent of NIU students come from our global region. • Most NIU students take their first job in northern Illinois; many continue to live here. • This is our recruitment base, our alumni base, our fan base, our donor base, our public support base. • Our success in meeting the needs of our global region will determine our success as an institution. • Substantial growth in off-campus credit enrollments will play a key role in our future success. 27 27

  28. Next Steps • Need to identify barriers to growth in off-campus credit enrollment • Identify incentives to encourage growth 28 28

  29. Fastest Growing Programs • Online programs Graduate and undergraduate education in Business, Healthcare, and Engineering, degree completion programs • Business and management programs Six Sigma, Administration, Integrated Marketing, Science/Technology/Management • Graduate programs Business Administration, Marketing, Systems Engineering, Engineering Management, Forensic Psychology • Healthcare programs Public Health, Nursing 29 29

  30. Fastest Growing Programs • Education programs Administration, Special Education, Educational Leadership, Instructional Design and Technology • Engineering programs Graduate degrees in Engineering Management Systems Engineering; Undergraduate degrees in Chemical, Civil, Electrical, and Mechanical Engineering • Degree completion programs • Corporate training programs Source: Eduventures Benchmarking and Profiling CPE Operations (2008) 30 30

  31. 31

  32. Competition and the Future of NIU First, the revolutionaries will take your markets and your customers.  Next, they'll take your best employees.  Finally, they'll take your assets.  The barbarians are no longer banging on the gates, they are eating off your best china. Leading the Revolution, Gary Hamel 32 32