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Electricity Demand and Supply Outlook. Presentation to the Assembly Utilities and Commerce Committee. William J. Keese, Chairman California Energy Commission January 15, 2004. Electricity Demand Trends. 2. Projected 2004 – 2010 Supply. 3. Supply/Demand Balance. 4.

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Electricity demand and supply outlook l.jpg

Electricity Demand and Supply Outlook

Presentation to the

Assembly Utilities and Commerce Committee

William J. Keese, Chairman

California Energy Commission

January 15, 2004






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2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Megawatts

High DSM Scenario Peak Demand Reduction

1

145

414

712

983

1,205

1,395

Incremental New Renewables Goals of Energy

1

Action Plan

36

50

145

246

352

461

567

2

Demand response goals from D-03-06-032

859

1,125

1,522

1,925

1,965

1,972

2,006

Total (MW)

896

1,320

2,081

2,883

3,300

3,638

3,968

Potential Energy Savings and Generation Additions from Demand Reduction, Demand Response, and Renewable Generation Program Goals

1. Dependable Capacity during Peak Hours

2. CPUC Interim Opinion In Phase 1 Addressing Demand Response Goals And Adopting Tariffs And Programs For Large Customers

6


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12000

10000

8000

Dependable Capacity (MW)

6000

4000

2000

0

1950s

1960s

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000s

Decade online

California’s Natural Gas Power Plants Are Aging

Nearly 31,000 MW of Total

Gas-Fired Generation

10,627

8,035

5,109

3,848

2,038

1,203

7


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Plant Retirement Issues

  • Market forces are currently working to retire uneconomic plants.

  • Not all aging power plants are a problem.

  • Resource Adequacy requirements are one way to mitigate

    reliability concerns.

  • Aging Power Plant Study to be conducted as part of 2004 IEPR update.

8