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Technical Briefing to AWG-KP on including others gases Tuesday 2 June 2009, UNFCC Bonn

School of Earth and Environment FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT. Technical Briefing to AWG-KP on including others gases Tuesday 2 June 2009, UNFCC Bonn. Professor Piers Forster, University of Leeds, UK. Talk covers. GWPs used in the Kyoto Protocol Updates to Kyoto Protocol GWPs

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Technical Briefing to AWG-KP on including others gases Tuesday 2 June 2009, UNFCC Bonn

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  1. School of Earth and Environment FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT Technical Briefing to AWG-KP on including others gases Tuesday 2 June 2009, UNFCC Bonn Professor Piers Forster, University of Leeds, UK

  2. Talk covers • GWPs used in the Kyoto Protocol • Updates to Kyoto Protocol GWPs • GWPs of non-Kyoto Protocol gases • GWPs for indirect/short-lived effects • Atmospheric measurements • Emission inventories Prof Piers Forster, Technical Briefing to AWG on KP

  3. 100 year GWPs used in Kyoto protocol and updates Revised Table 2.14 Errata,1 Dec 2008, from IPCC WG1 AR4, Chapter 2, Forster et al., 2007 ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Errata_2008-12-01.pdf Prof Piers Forster, Technical Briefing to AWG on KP

  4. GWPs quantified in AR4 that were not in Kyoto Protocol or SAR Table • 20 Ozone Depleting Substances - covered by Montréal protocol • 6 additional HFCs (152, 161, 227ea, 236cb, 236ea, 245fa,365mfc) • 1 PFC (PFC-9-1-18): uncertain lifetime, medical applications, minor? • 7 other compounds with short lifetimes (e.g. Halon-1201, Chloroform, DME) • 3 Perfluorinated compounds • NF3 - electronics industry, see next page • SF5CF3 likely related to SF6 emissions, very powerful GHG, long lived • c-C3F6, ozone depleting substance replacement • 31 Fluorinated ethers: solvents, potential refrigerants, currently expensive • 1 Perfluoropolyether (PFPMIE): heat transfer fluid Prof Piers Forster, Technical Briefing to AWG on KP

  5. Progress since AR4 • Sulfuryl fluoride (SO2F2) A fumigant • GWP uncertain but may be large Dillon, T., A. Horowitz & J. Crowley, The atmospheric chemistry of sulfuryl fluoride, SO2F2, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 1547-1557, 2008 • Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3), technology industry, flat panel TVs Study finds a reduced lifetime for NF3 of 550 years which would lead to a smaller 100 yr GWP (16,800 rather than 17,200) Emission confirmed by atmospheric measurements to be 620 tons or 16% of production (industry estimate was 2%) Weiss, R. F., J. Mühle, P. K. Salameh, and C. M. Harth (2008), Nitrogen trifluoride in the global atmosphere, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L20821, doi:10.1029/2008GL035913. Prather, M. J., and J. Hsu (2008), NF3, the greenhouse gas missing from Kyoto, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L12810, doi:10.1029/2008GL034542. Prof Piers Forster, Technical Briefing to AWG on KP

  6. Indirect/Short-lived GWPs AR4 quantified indirect GWPs for methane, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, non- methane volatile organic compounds, hydrogen – only methane indirect effects included in main GWP table Generally 100 year GWPs are less than 10, except for maybe nitrogen oxides from aircraft GWPs for short-lived species vary with location and timing of emissions: any metric would be uncertain GWPs not quantified in AR4 for emissions affecting non GHGs (e.g. aerosols, condensation trails from aircraft) Prof Piers Forster, Technical Briefing to AWG on KP

  7. Emission estimates • Emissions evaluated using a combination of techniques • Complexity/methodology varies with country/sector • Crudest methods rely on scaling economic indicators • Right: atmospheric measurements of year to year changes (100-yr GWP used to infer GtC units) • Figure 2.7, IPCC WG1 chapter 2 , Forster et al, 2007 Prof Piers Forster, Technical Briefing to AWG on KP

  8. Summary • GWP for many non-KP gases are included in AR4 table - see Errata for complete table • Many of these gases not necessarily expected to be important for climate change but some may become important (e.g. NF3) • Changes in GWPs since SAR largely related to reduced radiative efficiency of CO2 • GWPs well established for major species but uncertainties can be large for minor species • Uncertainties and methodological considerations with use of GWPs for short-lived and indirect climate change drivers Prof Piers Forster, Technical Briefing to AWG on KP

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