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Cycle de vie, emploi et retraite PowerPoint Presentation
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Cycle de vie, emploi et retraite

Cycle de vie, emploi et retraite

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Cycle de vie, emploi et retraite

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  1. Cycle de vie, emploi et retraite Jean-Olivier HAIRAULT, Professeur à Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne et à l’Ecole d’Economie de Paris (EEP)

  2. The life-cycle decisions Whenemployed: hours, wagebargaining and search on the job participation participation Whenunemployed: job search Retirement Education Working life Saving and consumption

  3. Two stylized facts

  4. Fact 1

  5. Fact 2

  6. Fact 2

  7. Fact 2 : Focusing on olderworkers

  8. Fact 2 : Focusing on older workers Sweden : 78% G-B : 67% Germany: 56% Sweden : 57% G-B : 40% Germany : 21% 54 % 13% Why? 60 To increase the retirement age 55 years old 65 37% Financial costs European Target : 50%

  9. Fact 2: Focusing on older workers

  10. Pour une entreprise : à quoi bon former ou embaucher un travailleur proche de la retraite ? Pour un chômeur proche de la retraite : à quoi bon chercher un emploi ? Ce n’est pas l’âge absolu qui compte mais la distance à la retraite La perspective de la retraite décourage tout «investissement » des et dans les seniors 60 ans France Age Retraite = L’horizon d’activité se raccourcit avec l’âge Entrée Vie active 65 ans OCDE 50 Baisse du taux d’emploi à proximité de l’âge de la retraite dans tous les pays Impact négatif de la date butoir sur l’emploi de la génération la plus proche de la retraite

  11. Oecd data on labor force: international comparisons: employment rate and unemployment rate by age: 15-19; 20-24; 25-29; 30-50; 50-54; 55-59; 60-64; 65-70; Time series and cross-country. • French Labor Force Survey: Enquête Emploi; employment and unemployment rate by age; transitions employment-unemployment by age

  12. Part I :Retirement and Social Security System • Chapter 1. SS Efficiency: Funded versus PAYG system • A. optimal accumulation • B. Uncertainty (idiosyncratic/global) and risk sharing (intra/intergenerational) • C. SS System and Inequality • Chapter 2 . Topics • A. Role of intergenerational altruism • B. Time-inconsistent choices • C. Political economy

  13. Chapter 3. Retirement age decision • A. Principles and the role of productivity, health and death • B. The SS neutrality and the tax on continued activity • C. A laffer curve view

  14. Part 2: Life-cycle Employment • Chapter 4. Older worker Experiences • A. International comparisons • B. French specificities • Chapter 5. Job destructions and Job creations over the life cycle • A. A positive theory • B. Age-Employment Policies • C. Explaining transatlantic differences

  15. Chapter 6: Retirement and Job search interactions • A. A joint decision • B. Delaying retirement age: a double dividend

  16. Les seniors et l'emploi en France, Conseil d'Analyse Economique, 2005. • COR Reports • OECD reports on older worker employment • L’impact du vieillissement démographique sur les mécanismes macroéconomiques, Antoine d'Autume • Artus P. et F. Legros (1999) Le choix du système de retraite, Economica. • Charpin J.-M. (1999) L’avenir de nos retraites, Rapport au Premier ministre, La Documentation Française

  17. Social Security and optimal capital accumulation « National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model », Peter Diamond, AER Dec. 1965. “The Social Insurance Paradox,” Henry Aaron, The Canadian, Journal of Economics and Political Science, 1966. “Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence”, Andrew Abel et al., REStud, Jan 1989.

  18. Uncertainty, borrowing constraints • “On the Role of Social Security as a Means for Efficient Risk Sharing in an Economy where Human Capital is not Tradable”, Robert Merton, chpt. in Zvi Bodie et al., Financial Aspects of the U.S. Pensions Systems, 1983. • “Intergenerational Risk-Sharing and Risk-Taking of a Pension Fund,” Gollier, C., Journal of Public Economics (December, 2007), • “The Risk-Sharing Implications of Alternative Social Security Arrangements,” Storesletten, K., C. I. Telmer and A. Yaron, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 50 (June 1999), 213—259.

  19. Uncertainty, borrowing constraints • Krueger, D. and F. Kubler, “Pareto-Improving Social Security Reform When Financial Markets are Incomplete!?” American Economic Review, June, 2006. • Dirk Krueger & Felix Kubler, 2002. "Intergenerational Risk-Sharing via Social Security when Financial Markets Are Incomplete," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 407-410, May. • Conesa, J. and D. Krueger, “Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Agents,” Review of Economic Dynamics 2 (October 1999), 757—795.

  20. Inequality and Social Security “On the Distributional Effects of Social Security Reform,” Huggett, M. and G. Ventura, Review of Economic Dynamics (July 1999), 498—531. • Inequality and Social Security Reforms, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, (J.O Hairault and F. Langot), 2008. • Le caractère plus égalitaire de la retraite par répartition: une cause entendue?  (joint with F. Langot), in  Revue d'Economie Politique, 2002, vol. 112, p.563-572.

  21. The role of altruism • De Nardi, M., “Wealth Inequality and Intergenerational Links,” Review of Economic Studies 71 (July 2004), 743—768. • Luisa Fuster, 1999. "Is Altruism Important for Understanding the Long-Run Effects of Social Security?," Review of Economic Dynamics. • “A Welfare Analysis of Social Security in a Dynastic Framework”, (Luisa Fuster, Ayseİmrohoroğlu and Selahattinİmrohoroğlu), International Economic Review, Vol. 44, No. 4, November 2003. • “Elimination of Social Security in a Dynastic Framework’’, (Luisa Fuster, Ayseİmrohoroğlu and Selahattinİmrohoroğlu), Review of Economic Studies. forthcoming

  22. The role of mandatory savings • “Time Inconsistent Preferences and Social Security”, (Ayse İmrohoroğlu, Selahattin İmrohoroğlu and Douglas Joines), Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 118, issue 2, May 2003 • “Are You Sure You’re Saving Enough for Retirement?” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(3) Summer 2007: 59-80. • “What Accounts for the Variation in Retirement Saving Across U.S. Households?” (with B. D. Bernheim and S. Weinberg), American Economic Review 91(4) (September 2001):832-57.

  23. Political economy • "The political economy of social security: a survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Galasso, Vincenzo & Profeta, Paola, 2002. Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-29, March. • Boldrin, M and A. Rustichini (2000), PoliticalEquilibriawith Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, 3, 41-78. • Cooley, T. and J. Soares (1997), A Positive Theory of Social Security Based on Reputation," Journal of Political Economy, 107, 135-160. • Will social security boom survive the baby, Thomas F. Cooley and Jorge Soares, Carnegie-Rochester ConferenceSeries on Public Policy 45 (1996).

  24. Transition from a Paygo to a Funded Retirement System

  25. Retirement Age • Economics of retirement, Alan L. Gustman and Thomas L. Steinmeier • Ageing and retirement age. What can we learn from the Overlapping Generations Model ? Antoine d'Autume • Blanchet D. and L. Caussat (2000), Le libre choix de l’âge de la retraite, approche économique, in Retraites choisies et progressives, D. Taddei ed., Rapport du Conseil d’Analyse Economique, La Documentation française

  26. Social Security (non-)neutrality • Gruber, J. and D.Wise, “Social Security and Retirement: An International Comparison,” American Economic Review 88 (May 1998), 158—163.

  27. The laffer curve on the continued activity tax • Inciter à différer le départ en retraite: une analyse en termes de courbe de Laffer (joint with F. Langot and T. Sopraseuth), in  Revue d'Economie Politique, 2005, 115, p.241-263. • Quantifying the Laffer Curve on the Continued Activity Tax in a Dynastic Framework. International Economic Review,  (J.O. Hairault, F. Langot and T. Sopraseuth), Forthcoming.

  28. Life Cycle Employment • Heckman, James J, 1974. "Life Cycle Consumption and Labor Supply: An Explanation of the Relationship Between Income and Consumption Over the Life Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(1), pages 188-94, March • Life-cycle equilibrium unemployment, A. Chéron, J.O. Hairault and F. Langot. • Les effets à rebours de l'âge de la retraite sur le taux d'emploi des seniors, (joint with F. Langot and T. Sopraseuth), in Economie et Statistique, 2007.

  29. Retirement and job search interactions • The Pre-Retirement Job Search: A Basic Explanation of the Older Worker Employment. J.O. Hairault, F. Langot and T. Sopraseuth