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Economy and Politics

Economy and Politics. Lecture, Part II. How well are the SEA economies doing?.

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Economy and Politics

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  1. Economy and Politics Lecture, Part II

  2. How well are the SEA economies doing? • Look only at a few statistics, for HDI in 2010:#1 Norway, .938; #4 US, .902#27 Singapore, .846; #59 Malaysia, .744;#94 Thailand, .654; #100 Philippines, .638;#111 Indonesia, .6; #116 Vietnam, .572;then Lao, Cambodia, Myanmar

  3. And a few more…

  4. Why we should be surprised • Conditions at independence • Subsequent political conflicts

  5. Stateness • Predicting life opportunities • Historical legaciesmandalagalactic politytheater state • Performance on ROL, education • And yet…

  6. Political economy snapshots • Cambodia • Indonesia • Vietnam • The Philippines • Malaysia • Myanmar

  7. Cambodia • Hun Sen PM since 1984 • Garment industry employed 300,000 • 57% in poverty • Lowest HDI other than Myanmar • Foreign aid 2011 $1 billion

  8. Indonesia • SBY re-elected 2009 • SEA’s most successful democracy? • Corruption, poor bureaucracy, bottlenecks • Re-think on decentralization? • Poverty rate down to 14%

  9. Vietnam • 11th Party Congress, early this year • PM Nguyen Tan Dung remainsVCP Sec-Gen Nguyen Phu Trong • Inflation, deficits; Vinashin collapse • Manufacturing employment

  10. The Philippines • Gloria Arroyo gone; another Aquino • 2009 elections • Overseas remittances • Family planning

  11. Malaysia • Barisan Nasional lost two-thirds majority 2008 • PM Najib Tun Razak April 2009 • Patronage model outmoded? • Reforms in NEP? • Vision 2020 • Emigration concerns

  12. Myanmar • Than Shwe stepped down • Late 2010 elections • New constitution • Grounds for hopes?

  13. Readings • Asian Survey, Vol.51, No.1 • www.atimes.com (Asia Times Online) • www.asiasentinel.com • Asia Development Bank, Asian Development Outlook, 2011

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