Lele Zou July, 2006 Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences

1. A synthesis of insights on the causes of social vulnerability to coastal hazards in South-East Asia Lele Zou July, 2006 Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences Poverty & Vulnerability program, Stockholm Environment Institute

2. contents • Background and purpose • Methodology of research • Analysis and the results • Discussion • Future work

3. Background • South-East Asia suffers the severest loss from the coastal disasters • The contradiction: wealth of research and practical experience with disaster risk reduction efforts; social vulnerability to natural hazards continue to increase.

4. Rationale and purpose Previous studies: • Specific country; • Statistical view; • Analysis on macro factors; • Impacts of natural hazards and disasters. But… • Few attempts to investigate the underlying factors and pathways of social vulnerability • No systematic review based on the analysis and comparison of a large number of case studies has been undertaken to-date.

5. …questions • What are the key insights from several decades of risk and vulnerability case study research? • What are the pathways through which social vulnerability to hazards is constructed? • Are there common elements or typical patterns of vulnerability that can be characterized and formalized? • How can scientific knowledge be translated more effectively into policy?

6. methodology: meta-analysis • An analyticalframework for comparative research that aims to draw inferences on commonissues with different but allied empirical backgrounds. • Methods: involving variety of analysis techniques: commonliterature review, formal statistical approaches, etc. • Output: combining, comparing,selecting or seeking out common elements, relevant results, cumulativeproperties

7. Meta-analysis: steps Formulating questions questions; theoretical framework; key concepts Building of literature searching strategy Meta-analysis data source criteria filing and coding systems Theories; Process; methods synthesis real-world level pre-meta-analysis level meta-analysis level study level study selection level implementation level

8. Concept framework coastal hazards: wind storm -- cyclone, hurricane, storm, tornado, tropical storm and typhoon; Wave/surge-- tsunami and tidal wave floods arose from the above hazards Kasperson and Kasperson 2001

9. Searching process • Database: • JSTOR www.jstor.org • Sciencedirect www.sciencedirect.com • Springerlink www.springerlink.com • Synergy www.blackwell-synergy.com • Emerald www.emeraldinsight.com • Regions and countries: • Asia, South-East Asia, Bengal, India, Indonesia, Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Burma, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam • Related social aspects: • Loss of life; Deaths (death rate); Mortality (mortality rate); diseases; health; social impacts; Vulnerability (vulnerable); Causes; Consequences; development The coding system

10. results

11. Causes to vulnerability • Physical (8) • Environmental (11) • Social-economical (21) • Psychological (5) • Behavioral (5) • Institutional (12) • Other (1)

12. Propotions of factors Short term factors: Extreme weather Long term factors: Poverty Access to resources Inequality Land usage Environmental stressors disasters

13. Discussions (overview) • Direct and indirect factors • cause-effect relationship often uncertainty • conditioning factors or moderator variables • Gaps between practice and theories conceptual framework Practical measures assessment Institutional policies

14. Discussions (detailed) • Co-occurring factors • Distinct drivers: social-economic and environmental factors • Combinations of multi factors are various • Access to resources – the central factor • Hard to categorize • Psychological factors – cultural accumulations • Circular process – impacts and drivers

15. Further work • More literatures • Common factors and specific factors • Community, household and individual levels • temporal investigation on the effectives of policies