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PHY2505 - Lecture 19

PHY2505 - Lecture 19. 1-D climate models. Last lecture Review of Liou IPCC definitions of radiative forcing This lecture 1-D radiative-convective climate models IPCC results Final lecture Climate and planetary atmospheres. Overview. Hierarchy of models: simple ideas.

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PHY2505 - Lecture 19

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  1. PHY2505 - Lecture 19 1-D climate models

  2. Last lecture Review of Liou IPCC definitions of radiative forcing This lecture 1-D radiative-convective climate models IPCC results Final lecture Climate and planetary atmospheres Overview

  3. Hierarchy of models: simple ideas 0-D 1-D```````````````2-D 3-D Global mean Radiative- Energy GCM’s effective convective balance temperature Balance TOA…. at every……. Include……. Include Fs –FIR level N-S flow feedbacks Radiative transfer Equations of motion Equations for water vapor & cloud Thermodynamic equation

  4. Hierarchy of models 0-D 1-D```````````````2-D 3-D Global mean Radiative- Energy GCM’s effective convective balance temperature Radiative transfer Equations of motion Equations for water vapor & cloud Thermodynamic equation

  5. 1-D radiative-convective models Convection significantly reduces surface (& low level) temperature Radiative transfer Equations of motion Equations for water vapor & cloud Thermodynamic equation

  6. 1-D radiative-convective models CLEAR CLOUDY Radiative transfer Equations of motion Equations for water vapor & cloud Thermodynamic equation

  7. 1-D radiative-convective models Convective adjustment scheme: Radiative flux divergence due to convection Static stability From first law of thermodynamics, see Liou p467 Then local rate of change of temperature from : Equations for water vapor & cloud Thermodynamic equation

  8. IPCC results Equations for water vapor & cloud Thermodynamic equation

  9. IPCC results: well-mixed gases FRAD calculated according to RTE: FS-FIR IPCC results from 2001 differ from IPCC 1995, 1992 because of new HITRAN data base. Addition of thousands of lines cause change in forcing results of 1.5% for doubling of CO2, greater differences for less known species Equations for water vapor & cloud Thermodynamic equation

  10. IPCC results: well-mixed gases TOTAL FORCING: SAR: 2.45 +- 15% Wm-2 IPCC 2001: 2.43+-10%Wm-2 Doubling of CO2 ~ 3.7Wm-2 Equations for water vapor & cloud Thermodynamic equation

  11. IPCC results: ozone Highly variable: Stratospheric ozone loss causes a negative forcing: Cooling from stratosphere more important than increased solar transfer to surface: uncertainties due to difficulty in obtaining vertical profiles Equations for water vapor & cloud Thermodynamic equation

  12. IPCC results: ozone Highly variable: Tropospheric ozone increases causes a positive forcing: Difficulty estimating magnitude due to uncertainty of how pollution will effect vertical distribution Equations for water vapor & cloud Thermodynamic equation

  13. IPCC results: ozone Equations for water vapor & cloud Thermodynamic equation

  14. IPCC results: aerosols Direct effects: scattering and absorption Indirect: cloud Equations for water vapor & cloud Thermodynamic equation

  15. IPCC results: aerosols Equations for water vapor & cloud Thermodynamic equation

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