Epidemic-Type Aftershock-Sequences (ETAS) model

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Epidemic-Type Aftershock-Sequences (ETAS) model. 島內 30 公里以上規模大於 5 Change Interval 1.5 yrs Background Interval 4.5 yrs. 從臨界轉變的角度理解地震預測 技術 Theory of critical transitions helps understand seismicity-based earthquake prediction techniques. 中央大學地球科學系暨地球物理研究所 陳建志. Schematic Diagram of PI.

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Epidemic-Type

Aftershock-Sequences

(ETAS) model

Change Interval 1.5 yrs

Background Interval 4.5 yrs

### 從臨界轉變的角度理解地震預測技術Theory of critical transitions helps understand seismicity-based earthquake prediction techniques

Schematic Diagram of PI

Time

1973 t0 t1 t2 t3

Schematic: Spatial Cross Section

Of Intensity Map along a Linear Track

“Change Interval”

“Forecast Interval”

Intensity = I

Intensity Change = I

Activation

P = Probability = {< I >}2

Quiescence

x (position)

I2

I1

Data

begins

1. Compute relative intensity maps:

I1=I(x,t0,t1) ; I2=I(x,t0,t2).

2.Normalize them so they have the same statistics with respect to area averages.

3. Define the averageChange Map:

<I> = <I2- I1>

The average is over all change maps having the same change interval(t1,t2).

4. DefineP = {<I> }2, and subtract the area mean to obtainP

5. Color-contourLog10{P}on a map

LURR Theory

P

(∆R)-

0 : number

½: Benioff strain

1: energy

1/3: size (length)

2/3:size (area)

(∆P)+

X+>X- , Y>1

(∆P)-

(∆R)+

(∆P)+

(∆R)-

X+=X- , Y=1

(∆R)+

(∆P)-

R

Stress-strain relation of rock materials