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General Finding in Heliospheric Realm. Nat Gopalswamy. William Liu: Kuafu. Kuafu A @ L1(Ly-alpha imager, Ly-alpha + inner coronagraph, outer coronagraph); 3-axis, 722 kg total; 130 kg payload Kuafu B in double Molnya orbit (auroral arcs, vortices, turbulence) – anticipated

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William liu kuafu
William Liu: Kuafu

  • Kuafu A @ L1(Ly-alpha imager, Ly-alpha + inner coronagraph, outer coronagraph); 3-axis, 722 kg total; 130 kg payload

  • Kuafu B in double Molnya orbit (auroral arcs, vortices, turbulence) – anticipated

  • Kuafu A in 2016; B in 2019 (Liu’s recommendation)

  • Surface to 20 Rs coronagraph (WCOR + Ly alpha) only: Balanced Kuafu?


Sport solar polar orbit radio telescope mission

Wu, Liu

  • The Mission:

    • Main Objective:Imaging & tracking interplanetary CMEs propagation

    • Orbit: out-of-ecliptic (inclination > 73.45o)

    • Attitude: 3-x stabilized

  • Main payload:

    Synthetic aperture radio telescope (with ‘clock scan’ scheme)

    • Frequency: 150±10MHz

    • Angular Resolution: 2º

    • Imaging Period: 30~60 mins

    • FOV: ±25º

  • Other Payloads:

    • Imaging Payloads:Heliospheric Imager, chronograph, X-EUV imagers, + ..

    • In-situ Measurement Package:solar wind plasma detectors (both ion and electrons), energetic particle detector, fluxgate magnetometer, low frequency wave detector, solar radio burst spectrometer

SPORT (Solar Polar Orbit Radio Telescope ) Mission

Sun

35.76m

31.76m

Launch

Big Ellipse Transfer  Jupiter Gravity Assist

Solar Polar Orbit


(Babcock- Leighton type) dynamo based solar cycle prediction:

(Proper) magnetic memory in the dynamo

(Proper) approach to derive the poloidal source from observation

required

main diff. between two predictions

Tricky, important … problem !!

Generation of poloidal field: nonlinear effects to modulate & Random effects

(Jiang)


Kinematics and coronal field strength of an untwisting jet in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA

Huadong Chen, Jun Zhang, & Suli Ma

The main results are:

  • 1. By tracking six moving features (MF1-6) in the jet, the kinematics (axial velocity, transverse velocity, angular speed, rotation period and rotation radius) of the untwisting jet are obtained.

  • 2. On assumption of the magnetic flux conservation in the same flux tube, we estimate the coronal field strength in the polar coronal hole. Our results show that the coronal flux density at the heights of 10~70 Mm decreased from about 15 to 3 G. A formula of fits our estimated data well.

Also current sheet by Zhao


S.-L. Ma in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA


GS method in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA

Leamon et al. 04

Lynch et al. 05

  • Comparison of CME and ICME fluxes (independently measured for 9 events; Qiu et al., 2007):

    • - flare-associated CMEs and flux-rope ICMEs with one-to-one correspondence;

    • - reasonable flux-rope solutions satisfying diagnostic measures;

    • - an effective length L=1 AU (uncertainty range 0.5-2 AU) .

P ~ r

Q. Hu


Prominence Signature in MCs in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA

High Np and low Tp

Located at the center of the flux rope

Existence of He+

Heating before and after prominence material

HELIOS Events:

1979DOY129, at 0.3 AU

1976 DOY 90, at 0.5 AU

1978DOY358, at 0.7 AU

Model

In situ measurement

SOHO

NASA

Remote Observation

Gopalswamy SpaceSciRev, 2006

Yao et al., 2010, JGR


Understanding solar minimum 23 24
Understanding Solar Minimum 23-24 in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA

  • Characterized by a large number of sunspot-less days (No cycle overlap) and a weak polar field strength.

Surface Magnetic Field

  • Meridional Flow (MF) amplitude was varied from cycle to cycle.

Latitude

MF Amplitude

Time

  • A meridional flow speed which goes from fast to slow reproduces the observed solar minimum characteristics

  • The strength of the polar field is governed mainly by surface dynamics in the early half of the cycle.

  • The amount of spotless days is governed by the dynamics deep in the solar interior.

Polar Field

Nandy, Muñoz-Jaramillo & Martens, Nature, 471, 80 (2010).

Overlap


Forecasting the solar minimum using kinematic dynamo models
Forecasting the solar minimum using kinematic dynamo models in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA

Diffusion dominated

Choudhuri et al. (2007)

  • Kinematic dynamo models have been used for the first time to make solar cycle predictions, but the two model based predictions are very different.

  • The reason behind the difference is related to solar cycle memory (Yeates, Nandy & Mackay 2008):

    • Diffusion dominated: one cycle.

    • Advection dominated: several cycles.

Advection dominated Dikpati et al. (2006)

  • There are still outstanding issues regarding magnetic flux transport:

  • Uncertainties in turbulent diffusivity (Muñoz-Jaramillo, Nandy & Martens 2011).

  • Lack of turbulent downward flux-pumping (Guererro & De Gouveia Dal Pino 2008).

  • Taking these issues into consideration suggests that cycle memory is only one cycle regardless of the type of model (Nandy & Karak, in preparation).


CME Interaction, in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA

Lugaz


The twin cme scenario
The “twin-CME” scenario in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA

IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT SPACE-HARZARD EVENTS ARE CAUSED BY “TWIN-CMES” WHERE TWO CMES OCCUR CLOSELY IN TIME (9 HOURS) FROM THE SAME ACTIVE REGION.

Recipe for GLE event

1) first CME/shock setup a strong turbulence upstream the second CME/shock.

2) open closed magnetic reconnection brings out driver material which is heavy ion rich.

3) the second shock has to go through the turbulence-enhanced region.

Gang Li

This give us a very powerful predictability on Space weather!


horizontal pattern: empirical model in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA

based on satellite data and Kp

-> particle distribution on top of atmosphere

AIMOS - Model conceptionAtmospheric Ionization Module OSnabrück (http://aimos.physik.uos.de)

vertical pattern: numerical model

Monte-Carlo simulation

-> ionization of single particle injections

empirical model + numerical model

-> atmospheric ionization of full particle inventory, worldwide, continuous from 2002


Aimos results
AIMOS - results in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA

Accuracy

AIMOS+GCM vs. measurements

Benefits

here: electron density compared to radars

without particles

el. density in high atmosphere compared to radars

NOy in lower atmosphere compared to MIPAS

with particles


Kperp/kpar = 10% in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA


Wimmer
Wimmer in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA

  • EP production chain

  • observations

  • DC, stochastic & shock accelerations

  • DC: E = 0.2 V/m (motion of B field causes an electric filed E~ vB) current sheet ~5000 km; acceleration in RC islands?

  • Stochastic: consequence of wave-particle interaction w – k.V = n.omega

  • shock: diffusive, shock-drift

  • diff: VsxB is the electric field that accelerates

  • April 3 2010 event: STA SEP flux an order of mag higher than in STB

  • Rouillard et al. (2011) use ENLIL to explain SEP variation

  • Lario et al. (2005) not all shocks accelerate particles. Seed particles is a key. M>3 always accelerate

  • Vainio model

  • propagation: diffusive, focused, scatter-free

  • Kahler 2007

  • Kallenrode & Wibberenz model very important (helios data & IMP data)


Jan maik wissing
Jan Maik Wissing in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA

  • aurora

  • ionization

  • secondaries

  • bremsstrahlung (e)

  • cosmogenic isotope production

  • mag particles: 10 keV to MeV (deposit above 90 km)

  • SEP reach down to 20 km

  • GLEs even below


Wissing continued
Wissing (continued) in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA

  • polar cap SEP events: ionization dominated by protons

  • Wissing and Kallenrode 2009

  • higher conductivity, chemical reaction – Hox, Nox, Ozone depletion

  • N2, O2, NO, O dissociated forming Hox and Nox

  • NO + O3 

  • Rohnen et al. 2005

  • North-south asymmetry: transport of Nox in the winter hemispere

  • SEP impact similar to UV rad over the solar cycle

  • Low cloud (<3.2 km) correlates with GCR

  • Markson, 1978

  • Singh, Singh, Kamra, 2004

  • Model: Determine particle flux above the atm; calaculate energy dep; Wissing et al., 2011

  • Good models for polar cap; not accurate in the oval


Ho gang li
Ho (gang li) in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA

  • Sugiyama & terasawa 1999

  • CME needs to be around 5 Rs for producing GLEs

  • Drury 1983

  • dt = 3skdp/(s-1)u^2 p  need small k

  • Tylka 2005

  • Presence of preceding CMEs: All of the GLEs have preceding CMEs (Li et a., 2011)

  • Ding et al., 2011


Guhathakurta sw impact
Guhathakurta: SW impact in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA

  • 100 M$ satellite, 100 M$ power grids, 10 M$ communications

  • humans in space, crew on passengers

  • Cliver & Svalgaard 2004

  • lowest lat aurora in 1872

  • Biggest storm in 1989 March

  • transit 14 h on 4 Aug 1972 9between two Apollo flights)

  • NSWP since 1995; NOAA SWPC;


Guhathakurta continued
Guhathakurta (continued) in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA

  • Flares (R5): X20 (once per cycle)

    Nov 4, 2003: X28+, April 2, 2001: X20

  • Storms (G5): K9, 4 per cycle

    lowlat aurora, outage, pipeline currents reach 100s of A

  • SEPs: (S5) 10000 pfu <1 per cycle

  • 9 events since 1976

  • S5 and R5 are truly seldom; G5 less useful

  • 1000 to 100000 times greater than X1 in stars – 10-20 days rotation period (Schrijver)


Alexi glover
Alexi Glover in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA

  • satellites: particle, plasma

  • humans: iss, future ip missions

  • Lack of flares: build up of debris in LEO & reduced orbital drag

  • large gcr flux for crewed missions and some sensitive electronics

  • euro crews treated as radiation workers (high latitude, polar flights) – legal responsibility

  • Integrity of GNSS may be compromised


Lugaz
Lugaz in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA

  • Tracking CMEs to 1 AU, CME-CME interaction


Ym wang
YM Wang in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA

  • Source identification of Rise 23 CMEs – 19% of CMEs missed by LASCO, similar to what Yashiro et al. (2005) found.

  • brightness is ppl to apparent speed  bright feature = compressed solar wind


Suli ma
Suli Ma in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA

  • 11/32 stealth CMEs during unusual minimum

  • speed: lower speed (50 – 100 km/s) compared to the ones with LCS (Jan 1-Aug 31, 2009)

  • a – small in COR2 FOV; not different

  • Limb events do show EUV changes in the inner corona


Suli ma shock
Suli Ma Shock in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA

  • 6/13/2010 event

  • T ~ 3 MK

  • Sheath bright in 193; dark in 171

  • Bubble  flux rope

  • Vs 600 km/s; bubble 410 km/s

  • shock speed decrease: 600 to 550 km  a -1 km/s/s

  • Flare 5:36 – peak 5:39 UT

  • Shock coincides with the fastest part

  • compression ratio: 1.56


Zhao in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA

  • Current sheet behind CMEs


Hu in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA

  • Grad-Sharanov reconstruction of MC structure

  • Phi-r (flare) ~ phi-p (MC); Quantitative CME – ICME connection


Shuo yao
Shuo Yao in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA

  • Good review of CME substructures

  • Id three-part structure in in-situ observations

  • three case studies at 0.3, .5, .7 AU from Helios

  • Heating before and after the prom material

  • High Np, Low Tp (similar to prom), possibly He+ (Yao et al., 2010) Solwind CME 600 km/s travels to .3 AU in 22 h (helios 2)

  • doy 90, 1976 0.5 AU; He+; heated plasma before and after the cold feature

  • 0.7 AU

  • All signatures observed

  • Solar probe plus, Solar Orbiter


Opgenoorth
OPgenoorth in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA

  • Interaction of CMEs and CIRs with Mars ionosphere (MARSIS) – 12 events

  • CME and CIR related dynamic pressure variations; induced magnetosphere

  • Kozyra talk; Zhang


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