Climate Change and Irish Forestry

1. Climate Change and Irish Forestry EU Directors of Forestry 27- 28th March 2013 Eugene Hendrick

2. Climate change forest policy/practice – framing issues • Impacts: climate change models, information gaps (species’ performance, genetic variation etc.) – then adaptation and wood supply issues (species and quantity) and provision of other ecosystem services, native species, insect pests and diseases • Mitigation – fuel/solid wood products debate, species composition in afforestation/reforestation, streamlining with other policy areas, sustaining mitigation long term – broadening the debate beyond sinks/sequestration to wood products and fuels – need for engagement with other sectors/policy areas

3. Climate change and forest sector impacts C4i model http://www.c4i.ie/docs/IrelandinaWarmerWorld.pdf • The climate will continue to warm, particularly in the summer and autumn seasons: possible increases of 3 to 4ºC towards the end of the century. The greatest warming will occur in the south and east of the country. • Autumn and winter seasons will become wetter: increases in the range 15-25% towards the end of the century. Summers will become drier: 10-18% decrease towards the end of the century. Regional details remain elusive, due to the large uncertainty in local projections. • The frequency of very intense cyclones affecting Ireland is likely to increase.

4. Climate change and the forest sector – impacts • Issues • Species suitability and yield – plantation forest resource provides opportunities to changes provenance species • Native woodlands and species – genetic variation and gene flow - fragmentation • Abiotic risks – windthrow, fire etc. • Biotic pests and diseases • Others?

5. Adaptation example - species suitability and yield CLIMADAPT http://82.165.27.141/climadapt_client/index.jsp CLIMADAPT - web-based decision support system (DSS) based on Ecological Site Classification (ESC) developed specifically for Irish forestry. It provides a decision support system, using soil and climatic information to assess species suitability and yield for individual sites under current and future climate change scenarios. Also includes a spatial analysis module for regional assessment of key environmental factors influencing species suitability and productivity.

6. Climate change mitigation and Irish forestry • Three main areas: • Forest sector • Sequestration – 4-5 million tonnes of CO2 per year possible to end of century through continued afforestation to mid century and avoidance of deforestation – national emissions projected to be ca 55-60 million tonnes of CO2 in 2020 • Forest sector and other actors • Renewable energy – already ca 30% of harvest (1 million cubic metres) used for energy directly and indirectly – potential to grow - energy/product debate • Solid wood products – mainly OSB/Medite and sawnwood – cascade use gives best climate outcome – in theory – but regional and local supply/demand dynamics are strong drivers

7. Climate change mitigation and Irish forestry Policy coherence Part of a number of major drivers Need for balance and consideration of other ecosystem services Eugene.hendrick@agriculture.gov.ie