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Robust Orbital Analysis of Two Unknown Exoplanets from Stellar Data

This study presents the orbital characteristics of two unknown exoplanets, identified in data spanning approximately 515 and 184 days. Analyzed by Barbara McArthur from the University of Texas, the findings highlight notable stellar jitter effects, impacting estimation errors for each planet. Detailed statistical insights, including Period (P), Temperature (T), and eccentricity (ecc), are provided with robust orbital solutions. Despite the small data sets, the period is well defined, though parameters like argument of periastron (ω) and eccentricity (ecc) show more variability.

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Robust Orbital Analysis of Two Unknown Exoplanets from Stellar Data

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  1. Modeling Unknown Planets Barbara McArthur University of Texas

  2. Planet 1 • 24 data points over ~515 days • Eric says stellar jitter of 3.2 m/sec based upon R'_HK

  3. For errors as given: P 3.0241 +- 0.0003 T 1071.0164 +- 0.3153 ecc 0.0456 +- 0.0318 wrv 60.0364 +- 38.7513 K1 0.0350 +- 0.0012 gamma -0.0071 +- 0.0008 DOF 18 Chi-Sqr 34.503 Rms 0.0024 km/sec For errors as given plus 3.2 meters/sec stellar jitter: P 3.0239 +- 0.0003 T 1071.0045 +- 0.3560 ecc 0.0394 +- 0.0298 wrv 57.4363 +- 43.3163 K1 0.0350 +- 0.0011 gamma -0.0068 +- 0.0007 DOF 18 Chi-Sqr 4.73 Rms 0.0023 km/sec Orbital Solution #1Robust Estimation

  4. Plots shows orbit determined with and without added stellar jitter. Notes on #1

  5. Data as given has error underestimated. DOF 18 Chi-Sqr 34.503 Data as given with 3.2 meters/sec stellar jitter has errors overestimated DOF 18 Chi-Sqr 4.73 Rms is very low - but with small amounts of Data that is not uncommon. More Notes on #1

  6. Planet 2 • 17 data points over ~184 days • Eric says stellar jitter of <3 m/sec based upon R'_HK

  7. For errors as given: P 3.4149 +- 0.0017 T 13016.5868 +- 0.4179 ecc 0.0965 +- 0.0868 wrv 17.7619 +- 44.2186 K1 0.0350 +- 0.0032 gamma 0.0073 +- 0.0020 DOF 11 Chi-Sqr 23.408 Rms 0.0043 km/sec For errors as given plus 2.0 meters/sec stellar jitter: P 3.4150 +- 0.0017 T 13016.6543 +- 0.4228 ecc 0.0930 +- 0.0771 wrv 25.4407 +- 44.8083 K1 0.0350 +- 0.0030 gamma 0.0073 +- 0.0019 DOF 11 Chi-Sqr 9.55 Rms 0.0043 km/sec Orbital Solution #2Robust Estimation

  8. Plots shows orbit determined with and without added stellar jitter. Notes on #2

  9. Note that there is not much data at the minimum/maximum amplitudes. Notes on #2

  10. Data as given has error underestimated. DOF 11 Chi-Sqr 23.408 Data as given with 2.0 meters/sec stellar jitter has errors very slightly overestimated DOF 11 Chi-Sqr 9.55 More Notes on #1

  11. Other comments These data sets are quite small - while the period is well defined, the  and ecc are less so.

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