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Art Douglas and Phil Englehart Creighton University

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An Historical Analysis of Transient Rain Bearing Systems in the NAME Domain: The Impact of Inverted Troughs on Monsoon Rainfall . Art Douglas and Phil Englehart Creighton University. Research Objectives.

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slide1

An Historical Analysis of Transient Rain Bearing Systems in the NAME Domain:The Impact of Inverted Troughs on Monsoon Rainfall

Art Douglas and Phil Englehart

Creighton University

research objectives
Research Objectives
  • 1. To develop an historical climatology of transient synoptic systems in northern Mexico.
  • 2. To determine relationships between these transient systems and fluctuations in summer rainfall.
  • 3. To relate variability in the frequency of transient systems to large scale oceanic and atmospheric anomalies.
  • 4. To provide a benchmark for modeling studies in order to determine model performance relative to the prediction of these transient features and their associated rainfall.
transient synoptic features affecting northern mexico
Transient Synoptic Features Affecting Northern Mexico
  • 1. Tropical Cyclones (Published).
  • 2. Inverted Troughs: Cold and Warm.
  • 3. Cold Fronts.
  • 4. Cutoff Lows.
  • 5. Open Troughs.
transient synoptic features affecting northern mexico1
Transient Synoptic Features Affecting Northern Mexico
  • 1. Tropical Cyclones (Published).
  • 2. Inverted Troughs: Cold and Warm.
  • 3. Cold Fronts.
  • 4. Cutoff Lows.
  • 5. Open Troughs.
slide16

Average Daily Rainfall (mm)

Inverted Trough Days

vs.

Days with No Synoptic Feature

Increase in Daily Rainfall (%)

Inverted Trough Days

with respect to

Days with No Synoptic Feature

slide17

Inverted Troughs Contribution to Seasonal (June-Sept) Rainfall (1967-2001)

Average Rainfall (mm)

Percent Contribution to Seasonal Total

slide18

RAINFALL Associated with INVERTED TROUGHS as a function of TROUGH POSITION (i.e. Displacement East (-) or West (+) of the Division Location in º Long.)

SONORA/SINALOA DURANGO TAMAULIPAS/NUEVO LEON

transient synoptic features affecting northern mexico2
Transient Synoptic Features Affecting Northern Mexico
  • 1. Tropical Cyclones (Published).
  • 2. Inverted Troughs: Cold and Warm.
  • 3. Cold Fronts.
  • 4. Cutoff Lows.
  • 5. Open Troughs.
slide26

TAMAULIPAS/NUEVO LEON (DIVISION 7)

Percentage of Total Seasonal Rainfall Associated with Fronts (< 350 km)

summary and conclusions
Summary and Conclusions

1. A 35 year climatology of transient synoptic features indicates that NAME 2004 was characterized by:

a. Cold Front Days 200% of normal.

b. Inverted Trough Days 70% of normal.

c. Cutoff Low Days 90% of normal.

d. Open Trough Days 170% of normal.

2. Inverted troughs provide 20%-25% of the summer rainfall received in NC and NE Mexico.

slide31
3. Rainfall with IV troughs peaks when the system is overhead in NC Mexico. Rainfall peaks in Western Mexico when the IV system is 3° to 4° upstream: associated with MCS development ahead of IV troughs (downslope, weak capping).

4. IV Rainfall in NE Mexico peaks when the system is 4° upstream and this may be related to disruption of the normal divergent trade system in the western Gulf of Mexico

5. In NE Mexico cold fronts provide about 6% of the normal summer rainfall (June to September).