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Statistics and the cumberland valley rail trail

Dr. Paul Taylor – Department of Mathematics. Statistics and the cumberland valley rail trail. Cumberland Valley Rail Trail. The current trail What the trail could be Helping the trail with statistics. Where is the trail?. To Newville. Where is the trail?. Seavers. Water Tower. Etter.

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Statistics and the cumberland valley rail trail

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  1. Dr. Paul Taylor – Department of Mathematics Statistics and the cumberland valley rail trail

  2. Cumberland Valley Rail Trail • The current trail • What the trail could be • Helping the trail with statistics

  3. Where is the trail? To Newville

  4. Where is the trail? Seavers Water Tower Etter Reisner McLean

  5. Where is the trail? Seavers Water Tower Etter Reisner McLean

  6. Where is the trail? Carlisle Newville Shippensburg Chambersburg

  7. Trail facts and figures • National Recreational Trail • 9 miles of crushed stone, 0.5 mile paved, completed 2006 • 1.5 miles unprepared • Parking, picnic area and restrooms at Shippensburg, Newville and Oakville • Maintained by all-volunteer, non-profit CVRTC

  8. Trail users • Runners • Walkers • Bikers • Dogs • Horseback

  9. Trail events • October 2, 2010 • 5K run and 4 mile hike • April 17, 2011 • 15K run, 5K run, 30K bike ride, 15K walk • June 4, 2011 • 10K run

  10. Future expansion – Fogelsanger Bridge

  11. Future expansion – Big Spring Bridge

  12. Carlisle Extension Carlisle Newville Shippensburg Chambersburg

  13. Carlisle Extension - Obstacles • Money – Design, construction, land purchase • PPL must agree to sell • Other landowners • 465 (Allen Rd) to Dickinson College

  14. Trail usage – Ship trailhead • In order to promote the trail with the community, businesses, landowners, municipal supervisors and politicians, the CVRTC needs trail usage data. • The busiest part of the trail is the Ship trailhead. • Ship students, faculty and staff are major users of the trail.

  15. National Bicycle and Pedestrian Documentation Project (NBPD) • National effort to document trail use • Develops guidelines for low-cost trail use estimates

  16. Trail usage – Ship trailhead • Applied Statistics students (MAT117) record trail use, one hour at a time • Data is compiled adjusted to control for time, weekday and month • User profile is also recorded (activity, approximate age)

  17. Trail usage – Ship trailhead Average 54,308 Average 10.36

  18. Trail usage – Ship trailhead • Estimate 40,000-60,000 trail annual trail users at the Ship trailhead • Range is extended on the lower side to adjust for winter usage below NBPD estimates

  19. Ship trailhead – Sample demographics

  20. The future - Improving the data • More hours • Four seasons • Other trail locations • Trail monitoring technology • QUESTIONS? • pttaylor@ship.edu

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