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Influences on Net Migration. Kelly Howard kh1007a@student.american.edu American University School of International Service. Research Question & Research hypothesis. Research Question: What is the relationship between the prosperity and well-being of a country and its net migration rate?

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Influences on net migration

Influences on Net Migration

Kelly Howard

kh1007a@student.american.edu

American University

School of International Service


Research question research hypothesis
Research Question & Research hypothesis

  • Research Question: What is the relationship between the prosperity and well-being of a country and its net migration rate?

  • Research Hypothesis: In general, I expect that the more prosperous the country, the more likely it is that country will have positive net migration.

    • Ha1: GDP per capita

    • Ha2: Unemployment rate, total (% of total labor force)

    • Ha3: Infant mortality rate under 5 (per 1000)

    • Ha4: Life Expectancy (years)

    • Ha5: Primary School Completion rate (% of relevant age group)


Literature review
Literature Review

  • “The Effect of Development on Migration”

    • by Michael Vogler and Ralph Rotte

  • Question: Why, given high differences in income and living conditions, is migration from the Third World to industrialized countries low?

  • Findings : Costs / benefits of migration; cultural groups are affected by variables differently.

  • “Bogus Refugees? The Determinants of Asylum Migration to Western Europe”

    • By Eric Neumayer

  • Question: What factors can explain asylum migration to Western European countries?

  • Findings : to reduce immigration rates, promote economic growth and human rights in the countries they’re emigrating from.


  • Influences on net migration
    Data

    • Country-level cross sectional analysis

    • World Bank database

    • Dependent variable : net migration rate (per 1000 population)

    • Independent variables: :

      • GDP per capita (gdppc)

      • Unemployment rate, total (% of total labor force) (ur08)

      • Infant mortality rate under 5 (per 1000) (mrate5)

      • Life Expectancy (years) (le09)

      • Primary Completion rate (% of relevant age group) (primrate)


    Dependent variable net migration rate per 1000
    Dependent Variable: Net Migration Rate (per 1000)

    Mean: -.307277

    Median: -1.86375

    Fairly unimodal

    Range: -92.26 to 103.11

    N = 177

    Missing = 71/248


    Two independent variables
    Two independent variables:

    GDP per capita

    Mean: 13230.9

    Median: 4216

    Range: 160 to 186175

    Normalcy

    N = 183

    Missing = 63/248

    Unemployment Rate, total (% of total labor force)

    Mean: 8.58

    Median: 6.65

    Range: 1.2 to 47.5

    Normalcy

    N=68

    Missing = 150/248




    Bivariate analysis2
    Bivariate Analysis

    Note: figures in bold are significant at the alpha = 0.05 level.


    Regression analysis dependent variable net migration rate
    Regression Analysis, Dependent Variable: Net Migration Rate

    Note: figures in bold are significant at the alpha = 0.05 level



    Findings policy implications of the research
    Findings & Policy Implications of the research

    • Findings: Did you accept your research hypothesis?

      • Yes, GDP per capita has a positive association with net migration rate

      • But no, the infant mortality rate and the primary completion rate did not have a significant association with the dependent variable

    • What are the policy implications of your findings?

      • To increase one’s net migration rate, increase GDP per capita

      • To reduce one’s net migration rate, increase GDP per capita in the countries you’re receiving immigrants from