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Exit from Socialism

Exit from Socialism. Economic Stagnation and Slowdown in the 1980s Top –down industrialization model exhausted its potential very quickly (particularly after the transfer of labor from agricultural to industrial sector completed) Several waves of reform – decentralization and recentralization

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Exit from Socialism

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  1. Exit from Socialism • Economic Stagnation and Slowdown in the 1980s • Top –down industrialization model exhausted its potential very quickly (particularly after the transfer of labor from agricultural to industrial sector completed) • Several waves of reform – decentralization and recentralization • Ultimately failed because it was impossible to combine more freedom of economic agents with central planning • Accumulation of debt in the 1980s after regimes decided to stimulate consumption • Stratification of society

  2. Exit from Socialism • Gorbachev Comes to power • Glasnost • Perestroika • Sinatra Doctrine • First transitions

  3. Exit from Socialism • Balkan Countries • Bulgaria • November 1989 demonstrations start • Concessions by communist party and change of leadership • Further demands and agreement for Grand National Assembly elections in 1990 • Now renamed BSP party wins • Government forced out of power • Elections in 1991 – opposition forces win, but government collapses very soon – 1992 • Non-party government until end of 1994 • Elections in 1995 – BSP wins, financial and banking crisis, collapse of government in 1996 • Elections in 1997, opposition UDF forces win again with a clear mandate

  4. Exit from Socialism • Romania • No signs for change or reform of leadership at the 14th congress of Romanian Communist Party in November 1989 • Regime collapse started with protests in Timisoara and refusal of local Hungarians to let their vocal reformed pastor Laszlo Tokes (16 December); spread out to rest of the country • The Revolution in Bucharest; the execution of the Ceauşescus • National Salvation Front under leadership of Ion Illiescu takes control (second-echelon party leaders, part of the army establishment, and Securitate) • Communist party was outlawed • Presidential and Parliamentary elections held in 1990; Illiescu elected President and NSF secured majority in Parliament • New Constitution in 1991; Presidential elections in 1992 once again won by Illiescu and the splinter from NSF – DNSF (PSDR) won the parliamentary elections; government in alliance with the nationalist parties – National Unity Party of Romania, and the Greater Romania Party • Only in 1996, the opposition forces allied in order to create a government of democratic opposition; Emil Constantinescu of DCR won the presidency • Illiescu returns to the presidency in 2000

  5. Exit from Socialism • Albania • Mixture of Top-Down preventive palace coup and bottom-up mounting social pressure • In 1990 party under Ramiz Alia starts to consider some changes in the economic system but no political liberalization yet; wins at elections in 1991; the results of the elections are contested by the opposition party – Democratic Party of Albania • Strikes and demonstration, plus a flood of emigration to Italy forces the communist party of Albania to make further concessions and to allow multi-party elections • In 1992 DPA wins the elections and Sali Berisha is elected president of Albania; party wins elections again in 1996 although through wide-spread election violations; an increasingly intolerant and authoritarian rule; government forced out of power in the 1997 turmoil following the collapse of the pyramid schemes • Socialist Party of Albania came back to power in 1997

  6. Exit from Socialism • Yugoslavia • Economic Disintegration and Slowdown in the 1980s • Political Disagreements • Clashing National Integration programs

  7. Exit from Socialism Yugoslavia

  8. Exit from Socialism • January to July, 1990 In this period, all the ethnic elements in the country began to explore new possibilities, often contradictory. • January 1990 League of Yugoslav Communists splits along ethnic lines • Violent riots in Kosovo, JNA intervenes • Multi-party elections in Slovenia and Croatia – Franjo Tudjman’s Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ); in Slovenia –center-right coalition (DEMOS –Democratic opposition of Slovenia) • Referendum in Yugoslavia favored keeping a single-party state and curbing ethnic autonomy of Kosovo and Vojvodina

  9. Exit from Socialism • August 1990 to May 1991 In this period the contradictions between competing goals moved the situation from tension to violence. • August 1990 Serbs in Krajina begin agitation for autonomy; preparation for a referendum; local Serb militia made of trained army set up road blocks to isolate region (Knin Republic of Serbs) • Milosevic declares that if Yugoslavia disintegrates there have to be border changes that would unite all Serbs • Serbia cracks down on Albanian agitation • December 1990 the new Constituion • Croatia and Slovenia alarmed; organized local militia and armed police; December 1990 Croatian assembly declares full sovereignty and right to secede; referendum in Slovenia in favor of secession; February 1991 assembly adopts a resolution to dissociate itself from Yugoslavia • March 1991 Serbs in Krajina declare autonomous republic (Milosevic recognizes them) first local clashes

  10. Exit from Socialism • May 1991 to February 1992 This was the period when true open warfare began, as the Serbs resisted the Slovene and Croatian independence movements. • May 1991 a Croatian was supposed to become Yugoslavian president – Serbs refuse to accept this • June Croatia and Slovenia declare independence • 27-30 June – short war in Slovenia; JNA seized customs posts but later blockaded with no gasoline; JNA withdrew and Slovenia was allowed to secede • July 1991 war escalates in Croatia (Eastern Slavonia and Knin); August 1991 regular Serbian army begins campaigns for Vukovar and Dubrovnik • January 1992 EEC (later EU) recognized Croatia and Slovenia

  11. Exit from Socialism • March 1992 to December 1992 In this period the arena of open war shifted from Croatia to Bosnia, where the province split along ethnic lines. • March 1992 majority of Bosnians vote for independence in a plebiscite but votes split along ethnic lines • Serbian local militia isolated major cities from surrounding Serbian-dominated rural areas; formation of Serb Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina announced, to be headed by Radovan Karadzic • JNA officially withdraws but Serbian forces begin a methodical effort to occupy as much territory in E Bosnia as possible; Muslim refugees to Zepa, Srebrenica, Tuzla, Sarajevo • Ethnic cleansing in a general scale (extensive use of rape and concentration camps) • By the end of 1992 2/3 of Bosnian territory in Serbian hands • Croat Union of Herzeg-Bosna, led by Mate Boban – claim about 30% of territory • Milosevic faces elections; opponents mysteriously murdered, wins • Ibrahim Rugova elected president of self-proclaimed republic of Kosovo (May • Krajina (Croat) Serbs and Serbian forces overran 60% of Croat territory, separating Dalmatia from mainland Croatia • Economic sanctions on Yugoslavia

  12. Exit from Socialism • January 1993 to January 1994 During this year, all sides in Bosnia pursued a dual strategy, balancing fighting with negotiations on the world stage to seek maximum advantage. • Peace talks in Geneva (Vance-Owen plan) • Pressure on Bosnian Serbs to accept a plan giving them 50% of territory (they controlled 70% at the time) by Milosevic because of economic sanctions and crisis (hyperinflation - 2mil % in Yugoslavia) • UN declared 6 cities as ‘safe’ zones not to be attacked by Serbs (food dispatched too) – Sarajevo, Tuzla, Bihac, Zepa, Srebrenica, Gorazde; Bosnian muslims lobby against arms embargo because they are at a disadvantage

  13. Exit from Socialism • February 1994 to June 1995 Stalemate begins to destabilize • March 1994 Bosnian Muslim and Croatian governments agree on a guideline for federated Bosnia – this way can present united front to Serbs (also pressure by US) • February 1994 – the explosion in Sarajevo’s market; Serbs blamed; warned to stop artillery shelling of ‘safe’ cities or face air strikes • Disagreement in UN forces on the ground – taken as hostages (UN discredited)

  14. Exit from Socialism • July to November 1995 Climax of war in Bosnia Croats win war • Srebrenica and Zepa (8000 Bosnian Muslims killed) under command of Radko Mladic • Karadzic and Mladic indicted as war criminals by the UN tribunal • Croatia given green light to take back control of Krajina (180000 Serb refugees) • Air strikes by NATO; Muslims and Croat advance stopped by West with just over 50% of territory • Dayton agreements

  15. Exit from Socialism • Direct victims of war • Croatia • Bosnia and Herzegovina • Serbia • Relatively less damaged republics • Macedonia • Montenegro

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