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検証テーマ : Real Option の 手法開発. リアルオプションのビジネス手法への展開 1. Pay-Off 関係の要因構築 2 . Option 価格の算出 3. 事例研究(石油会社のリアルオプション)                拓殖大学 経営経理研究所                    課題 研究発表  2011 . 10                            武上幸之助 . REAL OPTION 手法のビジネス応用 ( RO の構造とデシジャン・ツリー). 1. Pay-Off 関係の要因構築.

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Real option
検証テーマ:RealOptionの手法開発

  • リアルオプションのビジネス手法への展開

    1.Pay-Off関係の要因構築

    2.Option価格の算出

    3.事例研究(石油会社のリアルオプション)

                   拓殖大学 経営経理研究所

                       課題 研究発表 2011.10

                               武上幸之助 


Real option ro

REALOPTION手法のビジネス応用(ROの構造とデシジャン・ツリー)


Pay off
1.Pay-Off関係の要因構築

現在価値とリアルオプションの応用範囲(イメージ)

図1.「不確定性と不可逆性」の  

   示す領域からリアルオプショ

   ンの設定範囲を構築

図2.「目標市場」と「技術アジェ

   ンダ」から示されるROの設

   定できる範囲の確定=

   ペイ=オフ 要因構築



Real option
リアルオプションの罠(わな)(陥る失敗の領域)



Cdf npv
CDF・NPV 評価法(事例)


Real option
RO検定・検証


Real option
参考文献

*「WHAT IS NOT A REAL OPTION: CONSIDERINBOUNDARIES FOR THE APPLICATION OF REALOPTIONS TO BUSINESS STRATEGY」 RON ADNERINSEADDANIEL A. LEVINTHAL

The Wharton School, University of PennsylvaniaAcademy of Management Review2004, Vol. 29, No. 1, 74–85.

*Lynn, G. S., Morone, J. G., & Paulson, A. S. 1996. Marketingand discontinuous innovation: The probe and learn process.California Management Review, 38(3): 8–37.

*Maidique, M. 1980. Entrepreneurs, champions, and technologicalinnovation. Sloan Management Review, 21(2): 59–76.March, J. G. 1988. Decisions and organizations. Oxford:Blackwell.

*March, J. G., & Simon, H. A. 1958. Organizations. New York:

*Wiley.McGrath, R. G. 1997. A real options logic for initiating technologypositioning investments. Academy of ManagementReview, 22: 974–996.

*McGrath, R. G. 1999. Falling forward: Real options reasoningand entrepreneurial failure. Academy of Manageme

  • Review, 24: 13–30.

    *McGrath, R. G., & MacMillan, I. C. 2000. The entrepreneurialmindset. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business SchoolPress.

    *Miller, K. D., & Reuer, J. J. 1998. Firm strategy and economicexposure to foreign exchange rate movements. Journalof International Business Studies, 29: 493–514.