Pacific Panel Major activities over the past year • Panel meeting in Guayaquil, Ecuador, October 2010 • International Workshop on ENSO, Decadal Variability and Climate Change in South America, Guayaquil, Ecuador, October 2010 • SPCZ workshop, Aug 2010, Samoa Islands. • International workshop on North Pacific West Boundary Current dynamics, May 2010, Qingdao • Workshop “New strategies for evaluating ENSO processes in climate models”, Paris, France, November 2010 • EGU ENSO sessions • Coordination of NPOCE, GAIA, ITF, OKMC, SPICE and PCCSP, plus “MIXET”
Pacific panelMajor future plans/activities Indonesian Throughflow Task Team (jointly with IOP) Strengthen links and develop activities with PICES and other “green” programmes Development of several review papers (the South Pacific Convergence Zone, Intra-seasonal Oscillation, and WBCs’ response to global warming. Support for South America East Boundary Current research Continue coordination of major programs
Workshops/meetings planned • ITF Task Team meeting, early 2012, Indonesia • 7th Pacific Panel meeting, 29 April – 01 May 2012 – Noumea, New Caledonia. • NPOCE open science meeting, early 2012.
Pacific Panel Recent scientific highlights • J Climate paper “Wind effect on past and future sea level trends in the Southern Indo-Pacific” • SPCZ and climate change • J Climate paper “Impact of Decadal Pacific Oscillation on regional drought and flood” led to a Wall Street Journal opinion piece • Climate dynamic paper “Impact of mean state climate change on ENSO flavours” • Paper on ENSO instablitity analysis published. • Continuing work on “El Niño and Climate Change” after Nature Geoscience paper. • NPOCE conducted its major (52-day long) investigation survey to the Northwestern Pacific.
Detection: Ensemble Mean Std. Dev. 30-year NINO3 5-95%tiles of ensemble mean obs Natural variability 5-95%tiles obs Collins et al. 2011
Position and flux associated with ENSO Vincent et al. 2010
EOF2 EOF1 As in Vincent et al 2010 but extending to 2008 EOF 1, 48% EOF 2, 16% Applied to 24 CMIP3 models since 1950 PIC runs, only 11 models are able to produce
Aggregated over 11 models Control experiments Climate Change experiments
SST and Wind Projection in CMIP3 • SST response to CO2 is Characterized by enhanced • Equatorial warming • Convergence of trades towards equator • Ekman suction in South-Western Pacific Timmermann et al. 2011
Regional % deviations relative to global mean sea rise (2001-2100) Wind-induced acceleration of global mean sea level rise 10% means delay by 1 decade per century Rahmstorf (2007) IPCC (2007) Wind-induced deceleration of global mean sea level rise
Changes in the number of EP and CP El Nino events CP El Nino EP El Nino (20-yr sliding frequency of CP El Nino (red sold line) and EP El Nino(black dashed line). 20-yr sliding frequency is defined by counting each El Nino event during the 20-yr period) Choi et al. (2010)
Pacific Panel Issues and challenges (for input to JSC) NPOCE OKMC TAO/TRITON ITF MONITORING GAIA Pacific climate change science Programme PCCSP
Design and progress of NPOCE field experiment Deployed moorings and buoy by IOCAS, OUC and KORDI
NPOCE activities (2010-2011) NPOCE timeline (Hu et al., 2010, NPOCE Science/Implementation Plan) POSEIDON Project Workshop, Oct. 2010, Jeju, Korea NPOCE Coordinating Meeting, Mar. 28, 2011, Busan, Korea 1 Korean buoy deployed in May 2010 2 Japanese moorings to be deployed in Aug. 2011 2 Chinese moorings to be recovered and replaced in Jun. 2011 2 Chinese moorings deployed, 8 Argo floats and 30 ARGOs drifters released in Dec. 2010
The first NPOCE cruise of China (November, 2010-January, 2011) 75kHz ADCPs + EvoLogics Acoustic Modem, 400 m DVS 700 m 1200 m 5450 m Mooring(2) Argo(8)/Argos(30) IXSEA 1500 m ORE 5500 m
Ongoing experiments, Coral Sea Gliders (2005/06 and 2007/10) Gourdeau et al., 2008 Kessler, Davis, Gourdeau GBROOS: 2010-2011 Cruise FLUSEC (2007) Maes et al., 2011 XBT and Argo floats (2008-2011) Maes et al., submitted Cruises SECALIS/SECARGO (2003-2010); Gasparin et al. 2011; Ganachaud et al., 2008 Observations IMOS GBROOS 2012 regional 1/12° Coral Sea ROMS Couvelard et al. (2008) regional 1/12° Solomon Sea ORCA Melet et al. (2010a, c) Models: