Can new regional water policy transfer IWRM from myth to reality? (Case study:Jordan valley )

1. Can new regional water policy transfer IWRM from myth to reality?(Case study:Jordan valley) Abdel rahman tamimi Palestinian Hydrology Group A.tamimi@phg.org Birzeit university November 1st ,2011

2. IWRM Approach Social justice & Optimal management point • SOCIAL DIMENSION • SOCIAL CONFLICT • SOCIAL AGENDA • SOCIAL ACCEPTANCY OF IWRM OPTIONS • 4.SOCIAL PARTICIPATION • Gender consideration Social IWRM point Enabling Environment 1.Legal arrangement 2. institutional arrangement ECONOMIC DIMENSION 1. cost – benefit 2. Affordability 3. Economic sustainability Enabling environment Economic

4. 5 Ts Approach to understand & to act • Trends • Tensions • Transitions • Today • Tomorrow to late

5. Socioeconomic trends The most important pillar of IWRM is the understanding and counting the major trends of socioeconomic trends such as: • Income :The trends of income and economic growth are the main drivers for people willingness to pay and affordability . Un employment GDP growth rate. Poverty

6. Socioeconomic trends • Unemployment : due to the lack of proper water policy to deal with drought water scarcity ,many countries ( in particular agriculture communities )suffer from rising unemployment rates , the consequences of that high rates are effecting badly the other major socioeconomic indicators related water ( affordability, willingness to pay .etc ) • ( Trends in working farm populations, 1970-2008 (cheam)

7. Socioeconomic uncertainties • (it is so difficult to implement the principals of IWRM without flexible, multi-option based water policy as a cope mechanisms to deal with uncertainties. ( uncertainties can be natural (e.g. ; long term drought) or manmade such as ( e.g. ;pollution or lack of social stability) natural (e.g. ; long term drought) or manmade such as ( e.g. ;pollution or lack of social stability

9. TENSIONS • Climate change:Climate change is increasingly being securitized, as fears of the destabilization effects of climate change mount. In 2009 the UN General Assembly adopted a non-binding resolution on climate change as an international security problem (A/Res/63/281 11 June 2009). However, how climate change affects regional comprehensive security (livelihoods, poverty, food security has not been made clear yetrch.

10. TENSIONS • Good governance and institutional reforms : without monitoring the main indicators of good governance and reform process the efficient water policy approach will not be able to enable the environment to apply the policy components mismanagement Corruption

12. Under standing the problem Multi stakeholders Technical problems Poor Management Social conflict Multi sector conflict

13. Do Nothing Results: Domestic

14. TENSIONS

15. GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT GÖTTINGEN Mean, Dry and Wet Year conditions / Auja Spring Auja spring – Mean: about 9.7 MCM/a Range: 0.7 – 18.0 MCM/a

16. TRANSITIONS

17. . Step Approach towards IWRM in the LJV Step 1: Water Resources System Analysis Step 2: Socio-Economic Development and Climate Change Step 3: Water Budgets Step 4: Identification of IWRM Measures Step 5: Local IWRM Strategies as combined Measures Step 6: Selection of Priority Strategies Step 7: Integration and consolidation of local strategies Step 8: Performance and impact assessment of selected strategies Step 9: Final strategy evaluation and ranking Step 10: Guidelines for regional IWRM implementation .

18. GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT GÖTTINGEN Step1. understand the system • Mean monthly surface water availability (spring discharge + runoff) is plotted versus future agricultural water demand • Mean hydrological condition is taken in consideration • 25% loss of surface water is considered (pipeline construction) • Extension of agricultural area to 1200 ha within next 10 years • Estimated present water surplus is approx. 0.6 MCM/a and concentrated on the months of January to March. • This volume of water can be stored via MAR techniques to use in dry months

19. GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT GÖTTINGEN Highly variable surface runoff / Flash-floods Related problems: • Short duration - high itensity • High sediment load • Water quality issues

20. GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT GÖTTINGEN Measure: Import of treated effluents from Al Bireh Al Bireh wastewater treatment plant Yearly discharge about 2 Mio. m³ Option would require 25 km pipeline

21. GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT GÖTTINGEN MAR Planning at Auja – long-term water budget • 4 MCM storage capacity, via MAR, allows 32 MCM storage  loss reduced to 47 MCM • Reliability: 91% • A storage capacity of 18 MCM would be required to store all surplus water. • Feasibility ? • Preliminary simulation studies • Further time series analysis and budget studies are required to consolidate the results 4 MCM

22. GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT GÖTTINGEN MAR Planning at Auja – long-term water budget Surface water supply reliability and losses according to storage capacity • 30 years historical data ( 1967-1997) of monthly surface water (spring discharge and runoff) transferred to the time horizon, 2010-2040 • Agricultural expansion: 5200 dunum to 7200 (8415 dunum) within 10 years (2010-2020). 2020-2040: no further agricultural expansion • Agricultural water requirement to 1000 mm/dunum • Surface water loss from new pipeline: 25% • Reliabilityon demand = (Σ covered agric. demand / Σ Agric. demand) • Surface water loss = Σ( monthly surplus water- monthly stored water) • No climate change scenario

23. GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT GÖTTINGEN Step 2: Socio-Economic Development & Climate Change Wadi Auja • Local socio-economic development depends on irrigated agriculture • Irrigated area is constant since 20 years (5200 dunum = 520 ha) Agricultural Development and Water Trade Options (AD) • To cope with the need for socio-economic development 7 options for agricultural development and water trade have been defined which are based on the followng assumptions: • Maximum irrigable area around Auja village is 12000 dunum (1200 ha) • Water demand regular agriculture: 1000mm/dunum • Palm tree and greenhouse irrigation: 1500mm/dunum • Extension of irrigated area within 10 years  The defined AD options are quite different – trying to define edges of the feasible region in the decision space

24. GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT GÖTTINGEN Step 4: Identification of IWRM Measures

25. Take into consideration • Political willingness 2. uncertainties (man made or climate change)

26. GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT GÖTTINGEN Step 5: Local IWRM Strategies as combined Measures

27. GEORG-AUGUST-UNIVERSITÄT GÖTTINGEN Step 6: Selection of Priority IWRM Strategies • Socio-economic and environmental impact assessment studies are time and money consuming  • It is suggested to do a preliminary screening of IWRM strategies in order to select the most promising ones • For this purpose, the Analytical Hierarchy Process AHP (Saaty, 1980) is being applied which provides a ranking of alternative strategies based on: • Representative socio-economic and environmental decision criteria; • A participative decision making process • Criteria grouping (hierarchy); • Criteria weighting and pairwise comparison with regards to alternatives  No criteria quantification is required at this step !

28. Methodology of Ranking multi stages multi stakeholders weighting process • Ranking by experts • Ranking by stakeholders • Ranking by stakeholders/experts • Ranking by donors • Ranking by politicians Delphi technique

29. Example expert (2) and water harvesting (10) = WH 2*10 =20 IWRM options experts Scale for weighting Scale for weighting stakeholder Weighting average Expert/stakeholder Politicians Donor

31. Key Water Policy measures towards socioeconomic issues in the frame of water management • At community level • Policy reform to ensure more effective targeting of poverty reduction • Define measures and act on policy changes in other sector that effect the potential of water contribute to poverty reduction e.g. financial mechanisms. Decentralization …etc.

32. Key Water Policy measures towards socioeconomic issues in the frame of water management At Institutional level • Make sure that the policies formulated through participatory approach and based on socioeconomic indicators • Make the policies flexible , easy to cope with uncertainties • Make sure that policy is known and transparent in order to gain political well and acceptance • Create policy ownership by involving all governmental bodies and civil society organizations in the process of policy formulation

33. Key Water Policy measures towards socioeconomic issues in the frame of water management At research level • Enable the researcher to have accurate and reliable water related data( some countries are hiding the socioeconomic indicators) • Integrate research output with discion making process • Enhance the dialogue between water experts and decision makers • Promote the concept of research oriented policies will lead to improve socioeconomic situation