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Beyond 2011 The Future of Population Statistics

Beyond 2011 The Future of Population Statistics. Martin Ralphs, Office for National Statistics. Beyond 2011 (England & Wales). Context - why look at changing? Statistical options – what are the alternatives? Research plans & the (long) timescale

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Beyond 2011 The Future of Population Statistics

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  1. Beyond 2011The Future of Population Statistics Martin Ralphs, Office for National Statistics

  2. Beyond 2011 (England & Wales) • Context - why look at changing? • Statistical options – what are the alternatives? • Research plans & the (long) timescale • Risks & Issues – what could possibly go wrong?

  3. Context • Census – every 10 years • Population statistics  • Social conditions  • Housing  • Uses: Resource allocation • Service planning • Policy development, monitoring and review • Social research • EU regulations and duty to report to Parliament small areas + multivariate combinations

  4. The Beyond 2011 Programme • Why change? – Why look beyond 2011? • Rapidly changing society • Evolving user requirements • New opportunities – data sharing • Traditional census – costly and infrequent?? • UK Statistics Authority to Minister for Cabinet Office • “As a Board we have been concerned about the increasing costs and difficulties of traditional Census-taking. We have therefore already instructed the ONS to work urgently on the alternatives, with the intention that the 2011 Census will be the last of its kind.”

  5. Programme Purpose • Identify the best way to provide small area population and socio-demographic statistics in future • Provide a recommendation in September 2014 • - underpinned by full cost-benefit analysis • - & high level design for implementation • (subject to agreement) Implement the recommendation

  6. CENSUS SOLUTION 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 detailed develop test rehearse run outputs design 2011 2012 2013 2014 research / definition initiation BEYOND 2011 ‘Phase 1’ population population detailed procure / develop / characteristics estimates design develop test outputs 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION Beyond 2011 - Timeline - the key decision Sept 2014 recommendation & decision point

  7. Sept 2014 Late 2011 Early 2012 Summer 2013 May 2011 user requirements consultation consultation on options short list of options long list of options recommended option(s) Refining criteria and weights ITERATIVE PROCESS 6 month cycle refine evaluation criteria assess options revise business case report progress Ongoing research and prototyping of options

  8. Beyond 2011 • Statistical Options

  9. Beyond 2011 – statistical options FRAME SOURCES DATA OUTPUTS ESTIMATION All National to Small Area Population Data Address Admin Source CENSUS Register Population estimates Admin Source Admin Source Adjusting for missing data and error ?? Coverage Assessment Quality measurement Population distribution provides weighting for attributes incl. under & over-coverage - by survey and admin data? Comm Source increasing later? Household structure etc Commercial sources? Adjusting for non response bias in survey (or sources) Surveys to fill gaps Socio demographic Attribute Data Household Attribute estimates Socio demographic Survey(s) Communal Longitudinal data Establishments Maintained national address gazetteer – provides frame for population data & surveys Interactional Analysis E.g. TTWA

  10. Beyond 2011 : Statistical options Traditional Census (long form to everyone) • Rolling Census (over 5/10 year period) Census options • Short Form (everyone), Long form (Sample) • Short Form + Annual Survey (US model) • Aggregate analysis Administrative data options • Partial linkage e.g. 1% of postcodes • Full linkage to create ‘statistical population spine’ Survey option(s) • Address register + Survey

  11. Beyond 2011 : Statistical options Traditional Census (long form to everyone) • Rolling Census (over 5/10 year period) Census options • Short Form (everyone), Long form (Sample) • Short Form + Annual Survey (US model) • Aggregate analysis Administrative data options • Partial linkage e.g. 1% of postcodes • Full linkage to create ‘statistical population spine’ Survey option(s) • Address register + Survey

  12. Challenges of using admin data • Definitions • Time lags • List inflation • Research programme to address issues • Current working assumptions: • No single admin source is sufficient • We will need a coverage survey (CS) • We will need a big attribute survey

  13. Potential data sources • Population data • NHS Patient Register • DWP/HMRC Customer Information System • Electoral roll (> 18 yrs) • School Census (5-16 yrs) • Higher Education Statistics Agency data (Students) • Birth and Death registrations • DVLA? • Socio-demographic sources • Surveys • DVLA? • Commercial sources? • Utilities? • TV licensing?

  14. DWP CIS population counts compared with ONS Mid Year population estimates

  15. Patient Register population counts compared with ONS Mid Year population estimates

  16. Electoral Roll population counts compared with ONS Mid Year population estimates

  17. Beyond 2011 • Timeline – Plans and the Future

  18. Beyond 2011 - Timeline (non census solution) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 population population detailed procure / develop / research / definition initiation characteristics estimates design develop test outputs coverage surveys continuous assessment testing attribute surveys info from existing surveys – e.g. labour force survey, integrated household survey etc linkage increasing linkage over time modelling increasing modelling over time address register required on an ongoing basis – ideally the National Address Gazetteer – subject to confirmation of quality public sector & commercial ? admin sources developing over time supplemented by new targeted surveys as required test

  19. Beyond 2011 - and into the future 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 regular production of population and attribute estimates ongoing methodology refinement address register required on an ongoing basis and be added & develop over time administrative sources will change and disappear continuous coverage survey need for attribute surveys declines over time ? existing surveys increasing linkage over time increasing modelling over time

  20. 2013 2021 2031 accuracy of population estimates accuracy of characteristics estimates range of topics small area detail multivariate small area detail Improving quality & quantity experimental statistics develop to become national statistics

  21. Evaluation criteria • Costs • Quality / benefits • Accuracy • Frequency • Geographic detail • Legislative requirements • Risks

  22. Census Alternativemethod Benefit 2011 2021 2031 2041 Statistical benefit profile loss loss gain gain

  23. Census Cost ???Alternative method 2011 2021 2031 2041 Cost profile (real terms)

  24. Research and Testing Strategy - overview • Assess all options equally • Regular trial estimates • Key evaluation against 2011 Census results • Use 2011 Census Coverage Survey (CCS) and administrative sources to test models • Assessing options for coverage survey and socio-demographic survey – field trials later • Looking at all available sources – including commercial sources • Discussion with stakeholders – including debate on criteria • Cost / benefit • + quality (fitness for purpose) • + risk + public acceptability etc

  25. Beyond 2011 • Key risks and issues • What could possibly go wrong?

  26. Key risks of non census alternatives • Public opinion • Public acceptability research, open consultation & transparency of approach • Technical challenge – cutting edge & a big change • Building high quality team, talking to experts and strong external assurance • Changes in administrative datasets • Building resilient solutions – but may need legislation • Ensuring decision making – getting political buy-in • This is a big decision – needs real commitment • Devolved issues / harmonisation of UK outputs • Establishment of UK Beyond 2011 Committee + NS / RGs agreement

  27. Contact beyond2011@ons.gov.uk or talk to us ! Questions or comments ? Beyond 2011

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