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11 th MEETING – AER WORKING GROUP “f” 2 nd INPRO RMI – MEETING ENERGY NEEDS IN THE PERIOD OF RAW MATERIALS INSUFFICIENCY. APPLICATION OF MODELING TOOLS FOR ENERGY PLANNING IN LITHUANIA. VACLOVAS MISKINIS CZECH REPUBLIC, LIBLICE, APRIL 14-17, 200 9. Presentation plan. Introduction;

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Application of modeling tools for energy planning in lithuania

11th MEETING – AER WORKING GROUP “f”

2nd INPRO RMI – MEETING ENERGY NEEDS IN THE PERIOD OF RAW MATERIALS INSUFFICIENCY

APPLICATION OF MODELING TOOLS FOR ENERGY PLANNING IN LITHUANIA

VACLOVAS MISKINIS

CZECH REPUBLIC, LIBLICE, APRIL 14-17, 2009


Application of modeling tools for energy planning in lithuania

Presentationplan

  • Introduction;

  • Specific features of the Lithuanian energy sector;

  • Methodology of energy planning;

  • Examples of analysis performed.


Lithuania

Area: 65.2 thousand km²

(78.87 thousand km²Czech Republic)

Population: 3.4 mln. (10.5 mln.Czech Republic)

GDP growth: over period

2000-2008–7.3% (4.5% Czech Republic)

GDP per capita 2008: 15200 PPS (20900PPS Czech Republic)

LITHUANIA

Lithuania

Latvia

Lithuania

Russia

(Kaliningrad region)

Poland

Belarus


Application of modeling tools for energy planning in lithuania

The main research activities of Laboratory

  • Analysis of macroeconomic development, energy demand forecasting;

  • Analysis of the energy supply scenarios applying approved optimising modelling tools;

  • Analysis of the energy sector impact on the environment;

  • Application of restructuring experience in the Lithuanian energy sector;

  • Assessment of renewable energy sources development.


Application of modeling tools for energy planning in lithuania

Presentationplan

  • Introduction;

  • Specific features of the Lithuanian energy sector;

  • Methodology of energy planning;

  • Examples of analysis performed.






Application of modeling tools for energy planning in lithuania

Presentationplan

  • Introduction;

  • Specific features of the Lithuanian energy sector;

  • Methodology of energy planning;

  • Examples of analysis performed.



Application of modeling tools for energy planning in lithuania

  • Application of modeling tools for energy planning Lithuania

  • Since early 1990s application of econometric model and EFOM-ENV;

  • WASP-III Plus and WASP-IV;

  • Application of the simulation MAED model and BALANCE model

  • MAED+ optimization MESSAGE model;

  • Methodology of uncertainty + MESSAGE.


Application of modeling tools for energy planning in lithuania

  • Cooperation with the IAEA (1) Lithuania

  • Implementation of modern energy planning methods in Lithuania:

  • It has started in mid-ninetiesby invitations of Lithuanian teams to attend Interregional Training Courses in Argonne National Laboratory (USA), Saclay (France), Pitesti (Romania), Trieste (Italy), Zagreb (Croatia), etc.;

  • Implementation of the ENPEP package, MAED, BALANCE, IMPACT, WASP, MESSAGE, etc.;

  • Assistancethrough TC projects and useful consultancyby the Agency and energy planning experts from various countries.


Application of modeling tools for energy planning in lithuania

  • Cooperation with the IAEA (2) Lithuania

  • A set of planning tools – MAED, ENPEPpackage,WASP, BALANCE, MESSAGE – transferred to Lithuanian Energy Institute;

  • Agency provided assistance through expert missions, fellowship training and dialogueof Agency experts with policy-makersfrom Lithuania;

  • Publication of Energy supply options for Lithuania. A detailed multi-sector integrated energy demand, supply and environment analysis as the IAEA Technical Documentin 2004;

  • Publication of Analyses of Energy Supply Options and Security of Energy Supply in the Baltic States as the IAEA Technical Documentin 2007.


Application of modeling tools for energy planning in lithuania

Main indicators (MAED model) Lithuania

  • GDP growth rates;

  • GDP structure;

  • Technological indicators in manufacturing;

  • Number of population and its distribution;

  • Indicators of living standards;

  • Mobility of population;

  • Indicators of passenger and fright transportation;

  • Market penetration by energy forms;

  • Indicators of energy intensity.



Econometric model
Econometric model Lithuania

Vi – economic activity(GDP)

Pij – electricity price

α(ijl) – income elasticity

β(ijl) – price elasticity

Cijl – saving potential





Application of modeling tools for energy planning in lithuania

M Lithuaniaodelfor Energy Supply System Alternativesand their General EnvironmentalImpacts (MESSAGE)

  • It is an energy supply model, representing the energy conversion and utilization processes of the energy system and their environmental impacts;

  • It is an optimization model which from the set of existing and possible new technologies select the optimal in terms of selected criterion mix of technologies;

  • The mathematical method used in the model is linear programming;

  • A techno-economic or engineering approach is applied, i.e. the model represents the energy systems by their technological structure, aiming at the optimization of this structure, generally with respect to energy system costs;

  • It is used for development of medium-term strategies, the planning horizon being in the order of 30-40 years;

  • It is an energy and environmental model, enabling the user to carry out integrated analysis of the energy sector development and its environmental impacts.


Application of modeling tools for energy planning in lithuania

Presentation Lithuaniaplan

  • Introduction;

  • Specific features of the Lithuanian energy sector;

  • Methodology of energy planning;

  • Examples of analysis performed.


Application of modeling tools for energy planning in lithuania

Structure of the energy sector model Lithuania

Final

energy

demand

System

of oil

supply

Oil products

System of

electricity and

heat

generation

and

distribution

Oil products

Electricity

System

of gas

supply

Gas

Gas

System

of other

fuel

supply

Other fuels

Heat

Electricity

import

Other fuels


Application of modeling tools for energy planning in lithuania

Structure of the energy sector model Lithuania

Representation of systems of oil and gas supply systems could be in detailed or aggregated form;

The main attention mostly is paid to analysis of scenarios of power system development and all realistic options are examined:

Modernization of existing power plants,

Decommissioning of obsolete capacities,

Construction of new power plants,

Modernization of existing heat plants,

Electricity and heat transmission and distribution,

Implementation of emission reduction technologies.



Application of modeling tools for energy planning in lithuania

Energy exchange between Baltic countries Lithuania

and third countries


Application of modeling tools for energy planning in lithuania

Base case Lithuania

(1R(Aa))

scenario

By power

plants


Application of modeling tools for energy planning in lithuania

Base case Lithuania

(1R(Aa))

scenario

By fuel

type


Application of modeling tools for energy planning in lithuania

Scenario 6Ra(Aa) Lithuania

By plant

type

Base case (1R(Aa))

scenario

By plant

type


Application of modeling tools for energy planning in lithuania

D45 Lithuania

D34

D16

D05

D47

D51

KTE

D52

D39

D35

D38

D53

D54

D36

D19

D17

Silko

D48

D57

D03

D49

D28

D59

D29

Inkaro

D30

D20

D10

D56

D21

D11

D31

D12

D40

D32

D22

D60

D43

D13

D41

D23

D61

PTE

D42

Pergales

Model of district heating system in Kaunas


Application of modeling tools for energy planning in lithuania

Short characteristic of the model Lithuania

  • Model describes sources of district heat supply, heat transmission and distribution grid, possible renovation of multifamily houses, changes in fuel prices, heat demand during heating season, environmental and other indicators;

  • Criteria – min expenses for operation and development;

  • The main results: optimal mix of heat generation technologies, rational configuration of the transmission grid, fuel balance, requirement of investments, etc.


Application of modeling tools for energy planning in lithuania

Studies on the energy sector development Lithuania

  • National Energy Strategies (approved in 1994, 1999, 2002, 2007) ;

  • Studies on the power sector development in Lithuania, in Latvia, in the Baltic States, in Poland, in Mongolia, in Serbia and Montenegro, in the Baltic States and Poland, in Sudan and Nigeria;

  • Studies on various issues of the energy sector development (under contracts with Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Environment, energy companies, etc.);

  • Strategy of the Kaunas district heating system development;

  • Participation in programmes of 5th, 6th and 7th Framework, etc.



Integration of power systems
Integration of power systems Lithuania

New NPP