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MPR 2008:1 080213. Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages. Source: The Riksbank. Figure 2. GDP with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank.

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figure 1 repo rate with uncertainty bands per cent quarterly averages
Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages

Source: The Riksbank

figure 2 gdp with uncertainty bands annual percentage change seasonally adjusted data
Figure 2. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 3 cpi with uncertainty bands annual percentage change
Figure 3. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 4 cpix with uncertainty bands annual percentage change
Figure 4. CPIX with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 5 fluctuations in government bond rates per cent
Figure 5. Fluctuations in government bond ratesPer cent

Source: Reuters EcoWin

Note: Calculated as 30-day rolling standard deviation for 2-year rates.

slide7
Figure 6. GDP in the USA and the Euro areaQuarterly change in per cent, in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank

slide8

Figure 7. Consensus and the Riksbank’s forecasts for GDP growth in the United States in 2008 at different points in timeAnnual percentage change

2007

2008

Sources: Consensus Economics Inc. and The Riksbank

figure 8 gdp in sweden and the world annual percentage change
Figure 8. GDP in Sweden and the worldAnnual percentage change

Sources: IMF, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 9 total swedish exports and export market index for goods annual percentage change
Figure 9. Total Swedish exports and export market index for goodsAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

slide11
Figure 10. Real exchange rate and current accountTCW index, 18 November 1992 = 100 and percentage of GDP

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

figure 11 tcw exchange rate index 18 november 1992 100
Figure 11. TCW exchange rateIndex, 18 November 1992 = 100

Source: The Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

figure 12 gdp quarterly change in per cent in annualised terms seasonally adjusted data
Figure 12. GDPQuarterly change in per cent, in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

slide14

Figure 13. Households’ disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratio Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 14 labour force and number employed thousands seasonally adjusted data
Figure 14. Labour force and number employedThousands, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

slide16

Figure 15. Percentage of open unemployed 16-64 years-old and percentage of unemployed 15-74 years according to the new EU ordinancePercentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

slide17
Figure 16. Actual an trend labour productivity for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

slide18
Figure 17. Unit labour costs for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 18 cpi and cpix annual percentage change
Figure 18. CPI and CPIXAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

figure 19 oil price brent crude usd per barrel
Figure 19. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel

Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank

figure 20 cpix excluding energy annual percentage change
Figure 20. CPIX excluding energyAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

figure 21 repo rate forecasts on different occasions per cent quarterly averages
Figure 21. Repo rate forecasts on different occasionsPer cent, quarterly averages

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

Source: The Riksbank

figure 22 cpix forecasts on different occasions annual percentage change
Figure 22. CPIX forecasts on different occasionsAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

figure 23 employment forecasts on different occasions thousands seasonally adjusted data
Figure 23. Employment forecasts on different occasionsThousands, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

table 1 inflation annual average annual percentage change
Table 1. Inflation, annual averageAnnual percentage change

Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update

In December 2007 is stated in parentheses.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

table 2 inflation 12 month rate annual percentage change
Table 2. Inflation, 12-month rateAnnual percentage change

Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update

In December 2007 is stated in parentheses.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

table 3 key figures annual percentage change unless otherwise stated
Table 3. Key figuresAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated

*New weights from the World bank have been used for the aggregate world growth for the previous forecast, too. These values thus do not correspond to those published in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2007.

Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update

In December 2007 is stated in parentheses.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

table 4 repo rate forecast per cent quarterly average
Table 4. Repo rate forecastPer cent, quarterly average

Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update

In December 2007 is stated in parentheses.

Source: The Riksbank

figure 24 repo rate assumptions per cent quarterly averages
Figure 24. Repo rate assumptionsPer cent, quarterly averages

Source: The Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

figure 25 cpix annual percentage change
Figure 25. CPIXAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

figure 26 gdp annual percentage change seasonally adjusted data
Figure 26. GDPAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

figure 27 output gaps gdp percentage deviation from the hp trend
Figure 27. Output gaps (GDP)Percentage deviation from the HP trend

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

figure 28 labour market gaps percentage deviation from the hp trend
Figure 28. Labour market gapsPercentage deviation from the HP trend

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

figure 29 number of hours worked annual percentage change seasonally adjusted data
Figure 29. Number of hours workedAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

figure 30 employment rate per cent seasonally adjusted data
Figure 30. Employment ratePer cent, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

slide36
Figure 31. Open unemployment according to the ILO definitionPercentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

slide37
Figure 32. GDP, scenario wiith greater financial turmoilAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

slide38
Figure 33. CPIX, scenario with greater financial turmoilAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

figure 34 repo rate scenario with greater financial turmoil per cent quarterly averages
Figure 34. Repo rate, scenario with greater financial turmoilPer cent, quarterly averages

Source: The Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

slide40
Figure 35. GDP, scenario with higher international inflationAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

figure 36 cpix scenario with higher international inflation per cent quarterly averages
Figure 36. CPIX, scenario with higher international inflationPer cent, quarterly averages

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

figure 37 repo rate scenario with higher international inflation per cent quarterly averages
Figure 37. Repo rate, scenario with higher international inflationPer cent, quarterly averages

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

figure 38 oil price scenario with higher oil price usd barrel
Figure 38. Oil price, scenario with higher oil priceUSD/barrel

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

figure 39 the difference between interbank rates and government bond rates basis points
Figure 39. The difference between interbank rates and government bond ratesBasis points

Source: The Riksbank

figure 40 interbank rates in sweden per cent
Figure 40. Interbank rates in SwedenPer cent

Source: The Riksbank

Note. STIBOR T/N refers to overnight right from tomorrow until the day after.

figure 41 spread between interbank rates and expected monetary policy basis points
Figure 41. Spread between interbank rates and expected monetary policyBasis points

Source: The Riksbank

figure 42 interest rates in sweden per cent
Figure 42. Interest rates in SwedenPer cent

Source: SBAB and the Riksbank

figure 43 gdp annual percentage change
Figure 43. GDPAnnual percentage change

Sources: Eurostat, OECD and the US Department of Commerce

figure 44 employment and private consumption in the united states annual percentage change
Figure 44. Employment and private consumption in the United StatesAnnual percentage change

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of Commerce

figure 45 confidence indicators in the euro area balance deviations from averages 1995 2007
Figure 45. Confidence indicators in the euro area.Balance, deviations from averages 1995-2007

Source: European Commission

slide51

Figure 46. Confidence indicators for households and for manufacturing companies in the United KingdomBalance, deviations from averages 1990-2007

Source: European Commission

Note. Broken lines are averages of the respective curves from 1990.

figure 48 monetary policy expectations in the euro area and the united states per cent
Figure 48. Monetary policy expectations in the Euro area and the United StatesPer cent

Source: The Riksbank

diagram 49 monetary policy expectations in sweden per cent
Diagram 49 Monetary policy expectations in SwedenPer cent

Sources: Prospera Research AB and the Riksbank

figure 50 long term interest rates per cent
Figure 50. Long-term interest ratesPer cent

Source: Reuters EcoWin

Note. Government bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity.

figure 54 the money supply annual percentage change
Figure 54. The money supplyAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 55 house prices and total lending to swedish households annual percentage change
Figure 55. House prices and total lending to Swedish householdsAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 56 gdp quarterly change in per cent in annualised terms seasonally adjusted data
Figure 56. GDPQuarterly change in per cent, in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 57 confidence indicators for major industries seasonally adjusted balance
Figure 57. Confidence indicators for major industriesSeasonally adjusted balance

Source: National Institute of Economic Research

figure 58 gross fixed capital formation annual percentage change
Figure 58. Gross fixed capital formationAnnual percentage change

Source: Statistics Sweden and The Riksbank

slide64
Figure 59. Foreign trade with goods at fixed pricesAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

Source: Statistics Sweden and The Riksbank

Note. Three month moving average

figure 60 retail sales and household consumption annual percentage change
Figure 60. Retail sales and household consumption Annual percentage change

Sources: The National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

figure 61 household expectations of the future balance
Figure 61. Household expectations of the futureBalance

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 62 new and unfilled vacant jobs and redundancy notices thousands seasonally adjusted data
Figure 62. New and unfilled vacant jobs and redundancy notices.Thousands, seasonally adjusted data

Source: Swedish Public Employment Service

Note. Three month moving average.

figure 63 vacancies and redundancy notices thousands seasonally adjusted data
Figure 63. Vacancies and redundancy noticesThousands, seasonally adjusted data

Source: Statistics Sweden

slide69
Figure 64. Hiring plans and number of employed in the business sectorBalance and annual percentage change

Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

slide70
Figure 65. Labour productivity for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 66 estimated hp gaps percentage deviation from hp trend
Figure 66. Estimated HP gapsPercentage deviation from HP trend

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 67 capacity utilisation in industry per cent seasonally adjusted data
Figure 67. Capacity utilisation in industry Per cent, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: The National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

figure 68 proportion of firms reporting a shortage of labour per cent seasonally adjusted data
Figure 68. Proportion of firms reporting a shortage of labour Per cent, seasonally adjusted data

Source: National Institute of Economic Research

figure 69 employment rate proportion of the population aged 16 64 in the labour force
Figure 69. Employment rateProportion of the population aged 16-64 in the labour force

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Pre-1993 data has been spliced by the Riksbank.

figure 70 wages in the construction service and manufacturing sectors annual percentage change
Figure 70. Wages in the construction, service and manufacturing sectorsAnnual percentage change

Sources: National Mediation Office

Note. Three month moving average.

slide76
Figure 71. Unit labour costs for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 72 wage share labour costs share of the added value
Figure 72. Wage shareLabour costs' share of the added value

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Four-quarter moving average.

slide78
Figure 73. Actual inflation (CPI) and households’ and companies’ expectations of inflation one year aheadAnnual percentage change

Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

figure 74 different agents expectations of inflation two years ahead annual percentage change
Figure 74. Different agents’ expectations of inflation two years aheadAnnual percentage change

Source: Prospera Research AB

slide80
Figure 75. The difference between nominal and inflation-linked five-year rates (break-even inflation)Percentage points

Source: The Riksbank

figure 76 cpi cpix and cpix excluding energy annual percentage change
Figure 76. CPI, CPIX and CPIX excluding energyAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 77 cpix excluding energy broken down into goods services and food annual percentage change
Figure 77. CPIX excluding energy, broken down into goods, services and foodAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure 80 different measures of underlying inflation annual percentage change
Figure 80. Different measures of underlying inflationAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden The Riksbank

table 5 indicators for gdp in the short term
Table 5. Indicators for GDP in the short term

Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

slide87
Figure B1. Energy prices in the CPI adjusted for the effects of changes in indirect taxes Annual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

slide88

Figure B2. CPIX inflation and direct and indirect effects of changes in energy prices during the period 2002-2007 Annual percentage change and percentage points

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure b3 the economists commodity price index for food usd annual percentage change
Figure B3. The Economists commodity price index for food USD, annual percentage change

Source: The Economist

figure b4 consumer and producer food prices annual percentage change
Figure B4. Consumer and producer food prices Annual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

figure b5 food price in the cpi in some countries annual percentage change
Figure B5. Food price in the CPI in some countries Annual percentage change

Sources: The respective countries’ statistical agencies

table a1 inflation 12 month rate annual percentage change
Table A1. Inflation, 12-month rateAnnual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

table a2 change in cpi compared to change in cpix annual percentage change and percentage points
Table A2. Change in CPI compared to change in CPIXAnnual percentage change and percentage points

* Contribution to CPI-inflation, per cent

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

table a3 interest rates exchange rates and public finances per cent annual average
Table A3. Interest rates, exchange rates and public financesPer cent, annual average

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

table a4 international conditions annual percentage change
Table A4. International conditions Annual percentage change

*New weights from the World bank have been used for the aggregate world growth for the previous forecast, too. These values thus do not correspond to those published in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2007.

Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

table a5 gdp and gdp by expenditure annual percentage change
Table A5. GDP and GDP by expenditureAnnual percentage change

* Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

slide97
Table A6. Output, employment and unemploymentAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise else indicated

* Percentage of the labour force

Sources: National Labour market Board, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

slide98
Table A7. Wages, productivity and labour costs for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data

Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

table a9 cpix annual percentage change
Table A9. CPIX Annual percentage change

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

table a11 hours worked annual percentage change calendar adjusted data
Table A11. Hours worked Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

slide103
Table A12. Percentage of unemployed 16-64 year-olds, according to ILO definition Per cent of labour force, calendar-adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

slide104
Table A13. Scenario with greater financial turmoil Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified

* Per cent, annual average

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Main scenario forecast in brackets.

slide105
Table A14. Scenario with higher international inflation Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified

* Per cent, annual average

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Main scenario forecast in brackets.

table a15 scenario with higher oil price annual percentage change unless otherwise specified
Table A15. Scenario with higher oil price Annual percentage change unless otherwise specified

* Per cent, annual average

Sources: Intercontinental Exchange, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Main scenario forecast in brackets.