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MPR 2008:1 080213

MPR 2008:1 080213. Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages. Source: The Riksbank. Figure 2. GDP with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank.

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MPR 2008:1 080213

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  1. MPR 2008:1080213

  2. Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

  3. Figure 2. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  4. Figure 3. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  5. Figure 4. CPIX with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  6. Figure 5. Fluctuations in government bond ratesPer cent Source: Reuters EcoWin Note: Calculated as 30-day rolling standard deviation for 2-year rates.

  7. Figure 6. GDP in the USA and the Euro areaQuarterly change in per cent, in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank

  8. Figure 7. Consensus and the Riksbank’s forecasts for GDP growth in the United States in 2008 at different points in timeAnnual percentage change 2007 2008 Sources: Consensus Economics Inc. and The Riksbank

  9. Figure 8. GDP in Sweden and the worldAnnual percentage change Sources: IMF, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  10. Figure 9. Total Swedish exports and export market index for goodsAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  11. Figure 10. Real exchange rate and current accountTCW index, 18 November 1992 = 100 and percentage of GDP Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  12. Figure 11. TCW exchange rateIndex, 18 November 1992 = 100 Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  13. Figure 12. GDPQuarterly change in per cent, in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  14. Figure 13. Households’ disposable incomes, consumption and saving ratio Annual percentage change, fixed prices and percentage of disposable income Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  15. Figure 14. Labour force and number employedThousands, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  16. Figure 15. Percentage of open unemployed 16-64 years-old and percentage of unemployed 15-74 years according to the new EU ordinancePercentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  17. Figure 16. Actual an trend labour productivity for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  18. Figure 17. Unit labour costs for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  19. Figure 18. CPI and CPIXAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  20. Figure 19. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank

  21. Figure 20. CPIX excluding energyAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  22. Figure 21. Repo rate forecasts on different occasionsPer cent, quarterly averages Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast. Source: The Riksbank

  23. Figure 22. CPIX forecasts on different occasionsAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  24. Figure 23. Employment forecasts on different occasionsThousands, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  25. Table 1. Inflation, annual averageAnnual percentage change Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update In December 2007 is stated in parentheses. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  26. Table 2. Inflation, 12-month rateAnnual percentage change Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update In December 2007 is stated in parentheses. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  27. Table 3. Key figuresAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise stated *New weights from the World bank have been used for the aggregate world growth for the previous forecast, too. These values thus do not correspond to those published in the Monetary Policy Update in December 2007. Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update In December 2007 is stated in parentheses. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  28. Table 4. Repo rate forecastPer cent, quarterly average Note. The assessment in the Monetary Policy Update In December 2007 is stated in parentheses. Source: The Riksbank

  29. Figure 24. Repo rate assumptionsPer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  30. Figure 25. CPIXAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  31. Figure 26. GDPAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  32. Figure 27. Output gaps (GDP)Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  33. Figure 28. Labour market gapsPercentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  34. Figure 29. Number of hours workedAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  35. Figure 30. Employment ratePer cent, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  36. Figure 31. Open unemployment according to the ILO definitionPercentage of the labour force, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  37. Figure 32. GDP, scenario wiith greater financial turmoilAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  38. Figure 33. CPIX, scenario with greater financial turmoilAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  39. Figure 34. Repo rate, scenario with greater financial turmoilPer cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  40. Figure 35. GDP, scenario with higher international inflationAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  41. Figure 36. CPIX, scenario with higher international inflationPer cent, quarterly averages Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  42. Figure 37. Repo rate, scenario with higher international inflationPer cent, quarterly averages Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  43. Figure 38. Oil price, scenario with higher oil priceUSD/barrel Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.

  44. Figure 39. The difference between interbank rates and government bond ratesBasis points Source: The Riksbank

  45. Figure 40. Interbank rates in SwedenPer cent Source: The Riksbank Note. STIBOR T/N refers to overnight right from tomorrow until the day after.

  46. Figure 41. Spread between interbank rates and expected monetary policyBasis points Source: The Riksbank

  47. Figure 42. Interest rates in SwedenPer cent Source: SBAB and the Riksbank

  48. Figure 43. GDPAnnual percentage change Sources: Eurostat, OECD and the US Department of Commerce

  49. Figure 44. Employment and private consumption in the United StatesAnnual percentage change Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Department of Commerce

  50. Figure 45. Confidence indicators in the euro area.Balance, deviations from averages 1995-2007 Source: European Commission

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