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Elliott Wave in Today’s Markets. 6/18/ 09 MTA Webinar. Walter Murphy Global Advisors, LLC 233 Rock Road, # 345 Glen Rock, NJ 07452. walter@WMInsights.com wgmurphyjr@gmail.com Murphy-and-the-Markets.blogspot.com. Part 1: The Basic Form. 5. B. 3. A. C. 1. 4.

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elliott wave in today s markets

Elliott Wave in Today’s Markets

6/18/09 MTA Webinar

Walter Murphy Global Advisors, LLC

233 Rock Road, # 345

Glen Rock, NJ 07452

walter@WMInsights.com

wgmurphyjr@gmail.com

Murphy-and-the-Markets.blogspot.com

part 1 the basic form
Part 1:The Basic Form

5

B

3

A

C

1

4

In an impulse wave, the fourth wave correction cannot overlap the peak of the first wave.

Wave 3 can never be the shortest impulse wave (1, 3, 5). Wave 3 can be shorter than either wave 1 or wave 5, but not both. Usually, wave 3 is the longest and strongest impulse wave within the sequence.

2

corrective waves yogi berra
Corrective Waves & Yogi Berra

FLAT

ZIG-ZAG

TRIANGLE

COMPLEX

a hybrid the diagonal triangle an impulse wave with a corrective form
A Hybrid: The Diagonal TriangleAn Impulse Wave with a Corrective Form
  • A diagonal triangle is a five-wave pattern
  • Each of its five waves are made up of only three waves
  • It is an ending pattern (a larger wave 5 or wave C)
  • It is usually at least fully retraced
  • Has become more common recently

C

E: 5

A

D

B

4

counting guidelines
Counting Guidelines

CorrectCounting

IncorrectCounting

CorrectCounting

IncorrectCounting

CorrectCounting

IncorrectCounting

3

5

3

5

3

5

1

b

3

3

3

b

(1)

1

1

1

1

1

2

4

4

c

2

a

2

4

c

2

(2)

2

a

2

waves have character
Waves have character
  • Wave 1: Part of the basing/bottoming process. Form is the clue.
  • Wave 2: Often substantially retraces wave 1 (renewed downtrend).
  • Wave 3: Usually most powerful wave. Hello fundamentals.
  • Wave 4: Should differ from wave 2 in complexity (The Rule of Alternation).
  • Wave 5: Usually internally less powerful than 3, but lots of bulls.
  • Wave A: Viewed as reaction w/in larger trend of opposite direction.
  • Wave B: Here we go again – before being fully retraced by C.
  • Wave C: Cousin of 3; convinces most that trend has changed.
what is a wave annual
What is a wave (annual)?

Flat formations violate the Rule of Alternation

part 3 fibonacci price
Part 3:Fibonacci -- Price
  • 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 …
  • .618 * .618 = .382; 1 - .618 = .382; 1.618 * .618 = 1; 1.618 * 1.618 = 2.618; 2.618 * .618 = 1.618; 2.618 * .382 = 1.618
  • 1 + .382 = 1.382; 1 - .236 = .764
fibonacci time
Fibonacci -- Time

1932 + 55, 89 years

1974 + 8, 13, 21, 34 years

1982 + 5, 8, 13, 21 years

1987 + 13, 21, 34 years

2000 + 2, 3, 5, 8, 13,21 years

White + year = 1987

Red + year = 2008

Green + year =2021

ideal wave relationships
“Ideal” wave relationships

1.618 * wave 1

5 = 1

1

No more than a 50% retrace of 3

Up to a 99% retrace of 1

One of the impulse waves should be extended. It is usually wave 3 but doesn’t have to be.

part 5 the coppock curve
Part 5:The Coppock Curve?

The Coppock curve was created by Edwin Coppock and published in Barron’s in the early 1960s. The Coppock Curve was originally designed for use on a monthly time scale, but it is now applied to all time scales.

It is the sum of a 11-period rate of change and an 14-period RoC; the result is smoothed by a 10-period weighted moving average. (Coppock asked an Episcopalian church bishop how long people grieved after the loss of a loved one. The reply was 11 to 14 months.)

to harry dent
… to Harry Dent

DJIA Annual Coppock

45-50 Year Olds

other markets jy usd
Other Markets – JY/USD

Objective: 76-80

From 360+