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Elliott Wave in Today’s Markets

Elliott Wave in Today’s Markets

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Elliott Wave in Today’s Markets

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  1. Elliott Wave in Today’s Markets 6/18/09 MTA Webinar Walter Murphy Global Advisors, LLC 233 Rock Road, # 345 Glen Rock, NJ 07452 walter@WMInsights.com wgmurphyjr@gmail.com Murphy-and-the-Markets.blogspot.com

  2. Part 1:The Basic Form 5 B 3 A C 1 4 In an impulse wave, the fourth wave correction cannot overlap the peak of the first wave. Wave 3 can never be the shortest impulse wave (1, 3, 5). Wave 3 can be shorter than either wave 1 or wave 5, but not both. Usually, wave 3 is the longest and strongest impulse wave within the sequence. 2

  3. Corrective Waves & Yogi Berra FLAT ZIG-ZAG TRIANGLE COMPLEX

  4. A Hybrid: The Diagonal TriangleAn Impulse Wave with a Corrective Form • A diagonal triangle is a five-wave pattern • Each of its five waves are made up of only three waves • It is an ending pattern (a larger wave 5 or wave C) • It is usually at least fully retraced • Has become more common recently C E: 5 A D B 4

  5. Counting Guidelines CorrectCounting IncorrectCounting CorrectCounting IncorrectCounting CorrectCounting IncorrectCounting 3 5 3 5 3 5 1 b 3 3 3 b (1) 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 c 2 a 2 4 c 2 (2) 2 a 2

  6. Waves have character • Wave 1: Part of the basing/bottoming process. Form is the clue. • Wave 2: Often substantially retraces wave 1 (renewed downtrend). • Wave 3: Usually most powerful wave. Hello fundamentals. • Wave 4: Should differ from wave 2 in complexity (The Rule of Alternation). • Wave 5: Usually internally less powerful than 3, but lots of bulls. • Wave A: Viewed as reaction w/in larger trend of opposite direction. • Wave B: Here we go again – before being fully retraced by C. • Wave C: Cousin of 3; convinces most that trend has changed.

  7. Part 2:What is a wave (monthly)?

  8. What is a wave (quarterly)?

  9. What is a wave?

  10. What is a wave (annual)? Flat formations violate the Rule of Alternation

  11. Part 3:Fibonacci -- Price • 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 … • .618 * .618 = .382; 1 - .618 = .382; 1.618 * .618 = 1; 1.618 * 1.618 = 2.618; 2.618 * .618 = 1.618; 2.618 * .382 = 1.618 • 1 + .382 = 1.382; 1 - .236 = .764

  12. Fibonacci -- Time 1932 + 55, 89 years 1974 + 8, 13, 21, 34 years 1982 + 5, 8, 13, 21 years 1987 + 13, 21, 34 years 2000 + 2, 3, 5, 8, 13,21 years White + year = 1987 Red + year = 2008 Green + year =2021

  13. “Ideal” wave relationships 1.618 * wave 1 5 = 1 1 No more than a 50% retrace of 3 Up to a 99% retrace of 1 One of the impulse waves should be extended. It is usually wave 3 but doesn’t have to be.

  14. Fibonacci Trend Lines

  15. Part 4:Where we are – 1929 to Present

  16. Where we are – 1974 to Present

  17. Where we are – 2000 to Present

  18. Yogi Berra’s Fourth Wave

  19. Unfinished Business?

  20. Part 5:The Coppock Curve? The Coppock curve was created by Edwin Coppock and published in Barron’s in the early 1960s. The Coppock Curve was originally designed for use on a monthly time scale, but it is now applied to all time scales. It is the sum of a 11-period rate of change and an 14-period RoC; the result is smoothed by a 10-period weighted moving average. (Coppock asked an Episcopalian church bishop how long people grieved after the loss of a loved one. The reply was 11 to 14 months.)

  21. Annual (Secular) Coppock

  22. Monthly and Annual Coppocks

  23. Weekly and Monthly Coppocks

  24. From Elliott and Coppock …

  25. … to Harry Dent DJIA Annual Coppock 45-50 Year Olds

  26. Part 6:Other Markets – 10 Year Yields

  27. Other Markets – US Dollar Index B A

  28. Other Markets – JY/USD Objective: 76-80 From 360+

  29. Other Markets – Commodities Gold Oil

  30. Other Markets – Commodities Gold Oil Oil