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The Path To Higher Interest Rates

The Path To Higher Interest Rates

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The Path To Higher Interest Rates

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  1. The Path To Higher Interest Rates July 2014 For Institutional Use Only

  2. Agenda • Assessing Risk: Current Market Conditions • Post QE/Higher Interest Rates • Money Market Regulatory Reform • Cash & Term Portfolio Overview • Question & Answers For Institutional Use Only

  3. Assessing Risk: Current Market Conditions For Institutional Use Only

  4. Coordinated Global Monetary Policy For Institutional Use Only

  5. Central Banks Resort to Non-Traditional Policy QE2 QE1 QE3 Source: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis, European Central Bank, Eurostat, Bank of England, UK Office for National Statistics, Bank of Japan, Economic and Social Research Institute Japan, and Bloomberg. For Institutional Use Only

  6. Global Debt to GDP Trends Source: www.tradingeconomics.com For Institutional Use Only

  7. Global Business Cycle in a Trend of Modest Improvement *For developed economies, we use the classic definition of recession, involving an outright contraction in economic activity. For developing economies, such as China, we have adopted a “growth cycle” definition because they tend to exhibit strong trend performance driven by rapid factor accumulation and increases in productivity, and deviation from trend tends to matter most for asset returns. Source: Fidelity Investments (AART), as of 6/30/14. For Institutional Use Only

  8. Liquidity From QE Flows into Global Markets For Institutional Use Only

  9. QE Has Driven Bond Yields and Valuations For Institutional Use Only

  10. Quest For Yield Has Driven Corporate Spreads Lower Source: Barclays as of 6/30/14 For Institutional Use Only

  11. QE Has Led To Higher Equity Valuation For Institutional Use Only

  12. QE Taper Creates Emerging Market Volatility Source: Barclays and Bloomberg as of 6/30/14 The performance data featured represents past performance, which is no guarantee of future results. You can not invest in an index. For Institutional Use Only

  13. Demographics are an Important Driver of Interest Rates Source: Bloomberg and Haver as of 6/30/14 For Institutional Use Only

  14. Roadmap To Higher U.S. Interest Rates For Institutional Use Only

  15. A Path to Higher Interest Rates • Quantitative Easing • Taper QE • Assessment of QE • Cease Reinvestment Of Proceeds from SOMA Holdings • Normalize the Size of Balance Sheet Over Time • Traditional Monetary Policy • Modify Forward Guidance on the Federal Fund’s Rate • Drain Excess Reserves • Raise the Federal Fund’s Target Rate, IOER, RRP For Institutional Use Only

  16. Federal Reserve’s Economic Projections Inflation Threshold Inflation Forecast Actual Inflation Unemployment Rate Forecast Actual Unemployment Rate GDP Forecast Actual GDP 16 For Institutional Use Only

  17. U.S. Inflation Risks Remain Subdued U.S. Monetary Base and Velocity Key Drivers of Inflation $ Trillions Money Velocity CPI = Consumer Price Index. LEFT: Money velocity = GDP/M2. GDP = Gross domestic product. M2 = money supply measure including currency, demand deposits, checking deposits, savings accounts, money market accounts, certificates of deposit. Monetary base = currency plus reserves in the banking sources. Source: Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics, Fidelity Investments (AART) through 2/28/14. RIGHT: Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Fidelity Investments (AART) as of 12/31/13. For Institutional Use Only

  18. Jobless Claims Heading to Pre-Recession Levels For Institutional Use Only

  19. U.S. Labor Participation Rates Continues Downward Trend For Institutional Use Only

  20. Employment Creation Positive, But Not Impressive For Institutional Use Only

  21. Post Recession U.S. Employment Recovery’s Employment: Pre and Post Recession Employment Level Indexed to 100 at Start of Recession Most Recent Recession Source: NBER, BLS/Haver as of 4/30/14. Data represents Civilian Employment (SA, Thous). For Institutional Use Only

  22. Lackluster GDP Growth Despite Historic Fed Policy Contributions to Real GDP (% change annualized) For Institutional Use Only

  23. Potential Headwinds for GDP For Institutional Use Only

  24. Higher Mortgage Rates Could Dampen Recovery For Institutional Use Only

  25. Timeline To Higher U.S. Interest Rates For Institutional Use Only

  26. Consensus Builds for a 2015 Rate Hike Federal Reserve Board Rate Expectations Appropriate Pace of Policy Firming (June 2014) Median Target Fed Funds Rate at Year End Source: Federal Reserve as of 06/18/2014 For Institutional Use Only

  27. Market Expectations for First Rate Hike Sep-13 Jun-14 May-13 Source: Bloomberg as of 6/30/14 For Institutional Use Only

  28. Regulatory Reform Update For Institutional Use Only

  29. Money Market Fund Reform Timeline 2013 Key Events Feb 2013 FSOC proposal comment deadline(extended from Jan 18) Apr 2013 SEC rule proposal issued Sept 2013 SEC comment deadline Feb/Mar 2013 Mary Jo White confirmed as SEC Chairman Aug 2013 Stein and Piwowar replace Walters and Paredes at SEC Jan 2013 Obama names Mary Jo White as SEC Chairman Future Timeline Source: iMoneyNet and Fidelity as of 9/30/13 For Institutional Use Only

  30. Cash & Term Portfolio Overview For Institutional Use Only

  31. Focus on High Quality Issuers NCCMT Cash Portfolio June 30, 2014 June 30, 2013 Portfolio diversification is presented to illustrate examples of the securities that each fund has bought and may not be representative of a fund’s current or future investments. Each fund’s investments may change at any time. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.Source: Fidelity Investments as of 6/30/2014 For Institutional Use Only

  32. Foreign Bank Exposure Geographically Diversified FOREIGN BANK HOLDINGS: NCCMT CASH PORTFOLIO Source: Fidelity Investments as of 6/30/2014 For Institutional Use Only

  33. Fund Holdings Primarily Short-Term NCCMT CASH PORTFOLIO MATURITY SCHEDULE Source: Fidelity Investments as of 6/30/2014 For Institutional Use Only

  34. Focus on High Quality Issuers NCCMT Term Portfolio June 30, 2013 June 30, 2014 Portfolio diversification is presented to illustrate examples of the securities that each fund has bought and may not be representative of a fund’s current or future investments. Each fund’s investments may change at any time. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.Source: Fidelity Investments as of 6/30/2014 For Institutional Use Only

  35. Third Quarter Investment Strategy and Outlook • Investment Strategy • Seeking to preserve principal, maintaining liquidity and achieving superior risk-adjusted performance • Emphasize fundamental and macro research in formulating portfolio structures • Meet fund liquidity targets through repurchase agreements, Treasuries, agencies and short-dated credits • Manage weighted average maturities (WAM) and weighted average life (WAL) constraints to enhance NAV stability and performance • Position portfolios based on our assessment of relative value across the money market yield curve within the context of our approved credits • Outlook • Central Banks to maintain accommodative monetary policy to encourage economic growth • The FOMC enhances forward guidance to a more qualitative assessment that includes a wide assortment of inflation, labor and financial-market indicators as criteria for changing monetary policy • US continues tapering QE that establishes a glide path to end the program in 2014 • Global growth will be led by U.S. and Germany • Supply dynamics may keep short-term rates low in the year ahead • Money market supply is expected to contract by about $250 billion in 2014 led by reduction in repo and agencies • The Treasury’s Floating Rate Note (FRN) program is expected to issue $150 billion in 2014 with a reduction in bill issuance of a similar magnitude • The Federal Reserve’s Fixed Rate Reverse Repo should provide a leaky floor on overnight rates as the testing period continues to experiment with program rates and participation limits • Market volatility may present investment opportunities as we enter Fed’s tightening window • Final rules on additional money market regulatory reform expected in 2014 For Institutional Use Only

  36. Important Information • Not NCUA or NCUSIF insured. May lose value. No credit union guarantee. • Lipper Analytical Services, Inc., is a nationally recognized organization that ranks the performance of mutual funds. • The views expressed in this statement reflect those of the portfolio manager only through the end of the period of the report as stated on the cover and do not necessarily represent the views of Fidelity or any other person in the Fidelity organization. Any such views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and Fidelity disclaims any responsibility to update such views. These views may not be relied on as investment advice and, because investment decisions for a Fidelity fund are based on numerous factors, may not be relied on as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any Fidelity fund. • Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investment return will fluctuate, therefore you may have a gain or loss when you sell shares. • Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against a loss. • Before investing, have your client consider the funds’ investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Have your client read it carefully. • For Institutional Investor Use only. • Fidelity Investments & Pyramid Design is a registered service mark of FMR LLC. • Fidelity Investments Institutional Services Company, Inc., 500 Salem Street, Smithfield, RI 02917 Not FDIC insured. May lose value. No bank guarantee. 693367.1.0 For Institutional Use Only