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San Francisco Demographics and Voting Trends

San Francisco Demographics and Voting Trends. David Latterman October, 2004. Agenda. Description and methodology of demographic dataset Correlations to Rich DeLeon’s PVI Correlations to recent elections Turnout Identity Politics A look to the future. New SF demographic dataset.

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San Francisco Demographics and Voting Trends

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  1. San Francisco Demographics and Voting Trends David Latterman October, 2004

  2. Agenda • Description and methodology of demographic dataset • Correlations to Rich DeLeon’s PVI • Correlations to recent elections • Turnout • Identity Politics • A look to the future

  3. New SF demographic dataset • Compiled from 2000 census • Use blocks, block groups, and tracts to convert data to SF voting precincts • Blocks are standard unit • Much useful data come from block groups, too, though these are harder to convert • Larger tract data is best for district analysis

  4. Blocks Block Groups Conversion techniques to SF precincts

  5. Data from various census units • Blocks • Race • Age • Gender • Housing tenure (home ownership vs. renting) • Block Groups • Family data • Education • Employment • Income • Immigration status (especially useful in SF) • Tracts • LGBT • (Same Sex Householders)

  6. Example of block conversion - % Asian/Pacific Islander -

  7. Example of block group conversion - Median HH Income -

  8. Using precinct data for analysis • Different than poll data – reflects how people actually voted • Issues with data: • n ~ 570 citywide • n = much less for districts (45-60) • “Ecological Fallacy” • Difficult to establish which characteristics are important in heterogeneous parts of SF

  9. Correlations to PVI • PVI: high score means a more liberal voting population; low score means a more conservative voting population • Some stronger correlations to certain characteristics • Varies within districts (this is important!) • More liberal • Hispanic • Younger voters • More conservative • Asian • Older voters • Higher income • Higher homeowner percentage

  10. San Francisco PVI Map

  11. Good correlations with district variation (inverse slope) % voters over 50 vs. PVI % owned housing units vs. PVI

  12. Good correlations with district variation (positive slope) % voters 25-29 vs. PVI Correlations are consistently stronger with demographics that vote more conservatively!

  13. Not a good correlation, but with some district variation % Born in US vs. PVI

  14. Not a good correlation with some district and neighborhood variation (1) % Hispanic voters vs. PVI The Mission

  15. Not a good correlation with some district and neighborhood variation (2) % female voters vs. PVI • The Castro • The Tenderloin • SOMA % FemaleBecomes a proxy for LGBT voters Thanks Rich!

  16. Correlations to recent elections • Turnout • Identity Politics • Potential future trends

  17. Turnout – absentee and voting booth- is definitely affected by politics Dec ’03 Absentee Turnout

  18. Dec ’03 Election Day Turnout

  19. Med HH income Voters over 50 Degree Total Absentee Similarly, TO is affected by demographic characteristics Using average turnout of last three elections

  20. Identity politics is alive and well in San Francisco • Look at African-Americans, Asians, Hispanic, LGBT • Variation between and within districts

  21. African-American Voting Trends Precinct >15% census pop

  22. Asian-American Voting Trends Precinct >30% census pop

  23. Hispanic Voting Trends Precinct >25% census pop

  24. Racial politics in 2004 DCCC and beyond • Look at Asian, Af-Am, LGBT, Latino correlations • Eye toward the future

  25. DCCC ’04 – Asian (1) Hsieh and Jung were the top two vote-getters in AD12 Hsieh Jung

  26. DCCC ’04 – Asian (2) Ow (AD13) and Yee (AD12) didn’t win Ow Yee

  27. Moses and Gordon did not win in AD13 Looper won in AD12 Moses Gordon DCCC ’04 – African-American

  28. DCCC ’04 - Hispanics who did not win Garcia – AD13 Trevino – AD13 Ramos – AD12

  29. LGBT winners in AD13 Haaland Wiener

  30. Looking ahead • SF will see increased proportions of Hispanics and Asians, from many countries. • They will have a huge impact on the electorate, especially as immigrants become naturalized and are able to vote • If, in general, Asians are more moderate than Latinos…

  31. SF Demographics Trends…

  32. Hispanic Asian Ethnicities vs. naturalized immigrants

  33. % Naturalization vs. PVI

  34. For the future / other uses • Subdivide racial groups to nation of origin • Use data in policy debates (look for commonalities between Progs/Mods for compromises) • City agencies like HHS, MUNI, PUC

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