International Mortality Comparisons - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

international mortality comparisons n.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
International Mortality Comparisons PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
International Mortality Comparisons

play fullscreen
1 / 66
International Mortality Comparisons
58 Views
Download Presentation
sharlene-barbier
Download Presentation

International Mortality Comparisons

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript

  1. International Mortality Comparisons Richard MacMinnEdmondson-Miller Chair Katie School College of Business Illinois State University AVW06230311

  2. Opening comments • Data • The Human Mortality Database • Perspectives on international mortality data • Period data • Select birth cohorts • Rationales for mortality improvements

  3. Objectives • Look for common trends in mortality improvement data • Identify select birth cohorts • Seek causal links for mortality improvements • Compare immediate annuity costs using historical mortality data

  4. Select birth cohorts • A select cohort is a birth cohort characterized by greater rates of mortality improvement that previous and subsequent generations. • A number of select birth cohorts have been identified in the literature • England & Wales (1925-45), Sweden (1900-10), and Japan (1910-20) • More select birth cohorts are noted here.

  5. Select birth cohorts

  6. England & Wales • There are some dramatic mortality improvements by period • The GAD identified generations born between 1925 and 1945 as select birth cohorts. • Mean mortality improvements jumped from a max of 1.8% to 3.8% for select cohorts. • The standard deviation jumped from .043 to .056

  7. England & Wales

  8. England & Wales

  9. England & Wales

  10. England & Wales • The next figure compares immediate annuity costs for different birth cohorts. • At each date the figure provides the cost for an immediate annuity that covers the individual for age 25 through 45.

  11. England & Wales

  12. England & Wales

  13. England & Wales

  14. Norway • There are some dramatic mortality improvements by period • Note the 1870’s and late 1940’s. • A 1940 select birth cohort has been identified.

  15. Norway

  16. Norway

  17. Norway

  18. Sweden • There are some dramatic mortality improvements by period • Note 1915-19 and the early 1940’s. • 1925 and 1930 select birth cohorts have been identified. • The mean mortality improvement increased and the standard deviation decreased for the select cohorts.

  19. Sweden

  20. Sweden

  21. Sweden

  22. Denmark • There are some dramatic improvements in the 1940’s • 1925 and 1935 exhibit select cohorts properties

  23. Denmark

  24. Denmark

  25. Denmark

  26. France • There are dramatic period effects subsequent to 1915 and 1945. • A 1935 select cohort seems to exist

  27. France

  28. France

  29. France

  30. France

  31. West Germany • Some dramatic period effects exist, e.g., 1965. • 1905, 1910 and 1915 exhibit select birth cohort effects

  32. West Germany

  33. West Germany

  34. West Germany

  35. Switzerland • There are quite dramatic period effects for the 1920’s and 1940’s • 1930 and 1950 exhibit select cohort properties

  36. Switzerland

  37. Switzerland

  38. Switzerland

  39. Switzerland

  40. Italy • There are dramatic positive and negative effects in the 1940’s. • The 1915, 1930 and 1935 cohorts exhibit select properties. • The 1915 and 1935 cohorts exhibit higher mean mortality improvements and lower standard deviations that surrounding cohorts

  41. Italy

  42. Italy

  43. Italy

  44. Italy

  45. Austria • There is a significant negative mortality effect in the 1960’s similar to other countries. • The 1900, 1905, 1910, 1915 and 1935 cohorts exhibit select properties

  46. Austria

  47. Austria

  48. Austria

  49. Austria

  50. Japan • Significant period effects persisted into the 1950’s at early ages. • The 1910, 1915 and 1935 cohorts exhibit select properties