National Strategy for the Development of Official Statistics SWOT

1. National Strategy for the Development of Official StatisticsSWOT Jozef Olenski NSDS Seminar World Bank Ministry of Statistics and Analysis Minsk, 15 – 16 March 2007

2. Why SWOT • SWOT analysis is the method of objective evaluation of the existing system of statistics • Strengths • Weaknesses • Opportunities • Treats • SWOT analysis should be carried out systematically and continuously along with the realization of the NSDS

3. Strenghts • Legal basis of official statistics. The Law on State Statistics of 28 November 2004. • Institutional frameworks of coordination, programming and control of statistical surveys (Inter-governmental Committee of State Statistics). • Position and competences of the Minister of Statistics and Analyses as the organ of official statistics. • Position of Minstat as leading methodological and coordinating unit of centralized and decentralized official statistics. • Complex middle - term program of development of official statistics for 2006 – 2010, adopted by the government.

4. Strenghts • Organizational infrastructure of centralized statistical offices covering all the country. • Cooperation of statistical offices with main respondents. • Adequate level of education and motivated statistical staff. • Experienced and motivated managerial staff of official statistics. • Electronic Belarus -national program of development of information society and e-government in Belarus. • Research Institute of Official Statistics and cooperation with science.

5. Weaknesses • Statistical culture, especially of small and medium businesses, households and casual users. • Shortage of high level methodologists representing modern approaches. • Shortage of analytical staff in state statistics, especially on regional and local level • Traditional.methods of questionnaire design – “paper & typewriter driven” questionnaires • Autonomy of surveys – problems with integration of data and internal redundancy. • Underdevelopment of database systems both in centralized and branch statistics. • Coordination of branch statistics by Minstat. • Underdevelopment of ICT infrastructure both in official statistics, respondents and users.

6. Weaknesses • Low level of ICT literacy of statistical staff that not having direct access to networks (intranets, internet) • Limited use of “electronic inscriptions” blocking electronic data capturing and data interchange within statistical information systems. • Underdevelopment of statistical metadata and paradata systems. • Traditional methods of statistical data processing systems design • “Weak” statistical frames – simple registers of reporting units or identification of statistical units on the basis of censuses. • Traditional forms of dissemination of information: “publication – driven” philosophy of dissemination, also on websites.

7. Opportunities • Electronic Belarus – chance for good, modern, integrated ICT infrastructure for all administrative information and statistics • Perspective of ICT - based modernization of data collection, if statisticians and respondents are equipped in IT technology, electronic inscriptions and access to internet • Perspective of development of modern ICT - based intranet of official statistics, covering centralized and branch statistics, • Advanced implementation and know – how of international standards – their creative adoption to national requirements. • International collaboration of Belarus statistics – active participation of Belarus statisticians in international statistical activities relevant to economic and political possibilities.

8. Opportunities • Determination of statistical staff to learn and to adopt creatively of best statistical practices and exchange the experiences • Growing statistical needs users, both – governments, businesses and society; growing demand for statistical information. • Cooperation with science shall facilitate implementing of modern methods of conducting surveys, analyses and use of information technologies. • Cooperation with mass media • Expected wide access to internet and intranet for dissemination, education, data interchange.

9. Threats • Instability of statistical surveys caused by administrative functions of statistics • Decentralized model of statistics introduced by the law of 2004. Statistical services in other ministries – fuzzy borderline between administrative data and statistical data • Position of statisticians in governments and businesses – auxiliary personnel • Access to administrative records of other governments for statistical purposes – need of coherence of laws of ministries with the Law on State Statistics • Use of statistical questionnaires and microdata for non-statistical (administrative) purposes – may discourage potential respondents.

10. Threats • Autonomous development of administrative information systems and records and their non – integrated computerization may cause disintegration of information infrastructure of governments • Low level of salaries of high level analysts, methodologists and IT staff in official statistics. • Financing of statistics from government budget. • Decreasing commitment of businesses and households to cooperating with statistics as respondents, especially some groups of businesses and households. • Over-interpretation of statistical confidentiality.

11. Main conclusions from SWOT 2007 • Belarus statistics has the STRENTH of extensive implementing of the NSDS and effective absorption of available resources • Strengthening the capacities of statistics(mainly ICT, analytical, research and methodological staff, metadata and management tools) is necessary for overcoming the WEAKNESSES • Program of development of information society in Belarus is creating new opportinities of development of statistics • Shortage of resources (below minimal level necessary for realizaiton of actions on the critical paths of the roadmap) is the main THREAT of implementing the NSDS